Introduction—“Italian calculations”
Football. Sweet football. After a two-year COVID-enforced hiatus, we’re finally back!
Lord, have we been patient. Two full domestic campaigns were completed since the last time we were allowed to indulge in our usual frivolity. On June 11th at the Stadio Olympico in Rome, the wait will finally be over. All of the glory of the beautiful game at the nation-state-level returns.
Gentlemen, prepare to experience the only true religion of the secular age. Italy vs. Turkey on the Friday after next. Mark your calendars. There shall be passion, colors, and even plenty of Italian fans completely ignoring social distancing guidelines. An end to our collective nightmare is nigh.
Much has transpired in the two years since we’ve last convened. Since bidding adieu following a triple-headed syndicate that covered the Women’s World Cup, the Copa America, and the Africa Cup of Nations, your friendly bookie has since spent 24 months as a Bundesliga correspondent.
That development heralds two pieces of news. The first may elicit a groan. Yes, this is going to be quite the German-football-centric chapter; much more so than usual. Sorry, but the bookie genuinely feels that the Bundesliga stands as the best league in Europe. It might be a tad too predictable these days, but the clubs and (when they’re allowed to return) fans put the rest of the continent to shame.
If this bums anyone out, the second disclosure will surely lift your spirits. We’re going shorter and more to the point this year. No, seriously. This time the bookie means it. You’ll see. Preview sections are cut down to a manageable size. After 19 years, brevity has finally been discovered! In the end, all it took was age and exhaustion. May all happen upon this blessing sooner than I.
As pertains to the group we’re about to discuss, fate smiles on the chronicler. One couldn’t have envisioned a more fitting way to welcome the Italy enthusiasts back to this sportsbook than to discuss their team first and, moreover, tip the Azzuri to top the group. We’ve fairly straightforward predictions for this first assemblage of countries. Wales may appear to be an exception, but be advised that many others are picking them to collapse.
Little stands in the way of a triumphant return to the grand stage for Italia. Three home matches in Rome won't hurt. All the other teams have to toggle between Italy and Azerbaijan.
After engaging in all the calculations and permutations, it looks damn good for you guys. Trust the Kraut. He’s done all the careful computing on his pocket-calculator. It’s the best work on mini-Calculateur since Kraftwerk played live on RAI in 1981.
Yes. We have a theme this year. Take your time with Kraftwerk. If you’re as patient as you’ve learned how to be over these past two years, you’ll find that there’s no debate as to this awesomeness.
Italy—“Gli Azzuri”
Never leave us again! No tournament stands complete without my half-heritage brethren. I’m so ecstatic to have my kinfolk back that I’ll even refrain from ethnic slurs, at least until the blue-clad footballer does his “clever play calcio”. Bookie promises. No alliterative or rhyming put-downs until the first player shamelessly dives in the box.
Let’s discuss what’s been going on in the wop-shop since the Gian Pero Ventura debacle. Wait a second. Dammit. I just inadvertently broke my promise, didn’t I? Sorry. I’ll make it up to you by lavishing praise on what should be a team capable of attaining the quarterfinals. The ever-dapper Roberto Mancini’s rebuild of this squad deserves plaudits.
The former Lazio, Inter, and ManCity manager’s first major coup saw him coax Giorgio Chiellini out of retirement and convince him to serve as captain. The Turin center-halve, incidentally the one who’s shoulder Luis Suarez opted to sink his teeth into during the 2014 WM, anchors a first-rate defensive corps that also features veterans Leonardo Bonnucci, Alessandro Florenzi, and Francesco Acerbi.
True to typical Azzuri form, this is not a team with a great deal of offensive bite. Although Mancini’s men went undefeated in qualifying, the majority of their 37 goals came in romps over minnow nations like Lichtenstein, Armenia, and the suddenly very lousy Bosnia & Herzegovina. It was a very weak group; the one from which Finland also qualified.
Ciro Immobile, Federico Bernadeschi, and a (hopefully healthy) Marco Verratti are around to give the attack some pop. Jorginho should be coming along some too once he wraps up his UCL duties with Chelsea. All of that notwithstanding, it’s not a particularly explosive side. The likes of Graziano Pelle, Emmanuel Giacherreni, and Danielle de Rossi are all gone.
The man who we once advertised as the team’s new talisman, Stephan El Shaarawy, just hasn’t worked out as hoped. He didn’t even get called up to the preliminary squad. The syndicate members who don’t follow club football closely will also want to know it, so we’ll let them know. It’s long since been over for Mario Balotelli. He’s been playing in the Serie B for years.
It’s not “why always him?” anymore. Sorry, brothers. We’ve a little tribute below.
Before getting to the projected lineup, know that your friendly bookie currently works with a 34-man preliminary pool. In effect, it’s even a 36-man when one takes Jorginho and Emerson Palmieri (with Chelsea for the Champions’ League final) into account. Mancini still has to reduce this field by ten actors by the first of the month.
Here’s what I think we’re looking at based on recent scouting.
Projecting the Italian Lineup (5-3-2)
Not exactly an un-menacing constellation, but it does devolve into a sort of Catennacio bolt lock behind the half-way line. I’ll take the opportunity to reiterate that it’s very early to project lineups.
As is the case with every syndicate chapter, the prognostications for the initial groups take place before we even get a chance to look at the pre-tournament friendlies. Mancini may have something very different in mind with his oversized roster.
The Talisman—Ciro Immobile
The man who, during his spell at Borussia Dortmund, once complained that no one invited him out to dinner has been an absolute beast since returning to the Serie A.
Over a hundred and twenty goals in five seasons with Lazio Rom. He even gave the old BVB a retaliatory bitchslap in the Champions’ League group stages this year.
Expect some more skills from him this Summer.
The new segment brought to you by your friendly bookie debuts with a player who stands almost no chance of making the cut. Man, do I ever love this guy.
Though he has Italian parents, he’s German through and through; a “local yokel” to your friendly bookie. As damn cool as it would be to see a German-speaker play for La Nazionale in a major competition, it’s doubtful it shall transpire.
Nostalgia Corner
“Balotelli destroys the Vaterland”
Alright, Azzuri faithful. Here’s your promised chance to laugh at my pain. See? I’m capable of keeping my promises. EM 2012. Mario Balotelli. Coincidentally, I watched this in Grifo’s hometown of Pforzheim.
Oh my perpetually wounded heart. Oh the humanity!
Switzerland—“La Nati”
Welcome to…er….the Bundesliga. As usual, the distantly related pastoral alpine kin of the citizens of the Bundesrepublik draw heavily from Germany’s top footballing division.
Fifteen players earn their paychecks up north. Four Borussia Mönchengladbach professionals are expected to make the cut.
Gaffer Vladimir Petkovic looks to lead this side to the knockouts for the third consecutive international tournament. One observes no real reason why he can’t be expected to do again here. Petkovic’s magnificent midfield duo of Kosovar Albanians are back.
Indeed, gentlemen. Prepare yourselves for scenes like that. Granit Xhaka has evolved into a more complete player over at the Emirates. Matters don’t go quite as smoothly for “magical elf dwarf” Xherdan Shaqiri at Anfield, but the 29-year-old can likely be counted on to up his game in the national team tricot. These Premeiership stars maintain the ability to carry the team on their shoulders.
Switching from the EPL back to the Bundesliga, Gladbach’s Breel Embolo and Denis Zakaria count as two very good players who shall give it all in this competition as they audition for a new club team. BMG teammate Nico Elvedi’s development proceeded apace.
Frankfurt’s Steven Zuber and Djibril Sow exhibited great form in the latter stages of the season. The same can be said for Wolfsburg’s Admir Mehmedi/Kevin Mbabu, Augsburg’s Ruben Vargas, and Mainz’s Edimilson Fernandes. The Swiss haven’t lost much other than dead weight in the form of Bundesliga flops Valon Behrami and Josip Drmic. German league mainstays Stefan Lichtsteiner and Michael Lang are now retired from international duty.
Alright. That’s enough. Before your friendly bookie whittles away the entire afternoon prattling on about his beloved Vaterland, we might as well get to the lineup. Stateside readers should know that they can watch their team play this side Sunday in a friendly.
Projecting the Swiss Lineup (4-4-2)
Note that we’re looking at a Bundesliga fantatic’s lineup here. Some of the bolder predictions include swinging Elvedi out to right back, starting Mbabu forward on the wing, and giving Zuber the left forward flank. The loss of Renato Steffen necessitates some creativity here.
Don’t be surprised if Mario Gavranoic and Christian Fassnacht get the nod as the two strikers at some point. Petkovic generally likes to mix it up over the course of the tournament. I’m thinking if we do see Mehmedi, it’ll be as a ten.
The Talisman—Xherdan Shaqiri
There really can be no other choice. The diminutive wizard wasn’t exactly in stellar form for Bayern prior to the 2014 tournament or Stoke City just before we kicked off the 2016 and 2018 festivities. Somehow, he always finds a way to step it up for the internationals.
Do not doubt the dwarf. There's pixie dust left in him.
In addition to being a frankly sensational keeper, Gladbach’s net-minder happens to be one cool dude. Sommer is a bit of a gourmand. It invariably surprises this writer whenever he encounters men who actually know how to cook.
Additionally, how refreshing it is to see a professional footballer care about taste in a field legitimately over-obsessed with nutrition.
Nostalgia Corner
“Spell of the Elf Dwarf”
Who could forget this? Christ what a goal this was to keep his team alive in the most dramatic fashion. Journeying back to the EM 2016 round-of-16, one might get a sense of what's in store.
Turkey—“Ay-Yidlizilar”
A German’s “blood brothers” return. Couldn’t be more excited it if I were wrapping my hands around a freshly prepared Döner. Strap in brothers as it’s time to “talk Turkey”. Er…that is to say…look. You know what I mean.
One lamentably must report that legendary Turkish head-coach Faith Terim will not be joining us this time. The “Behmoth of the Bosporous” concluded his third stint as national team trainer shortly after the 2016 Euros.
Incredibly, the man remains quite active at the age of 67. He’s currently serving his fourth term as manager of Turkish Super Club Galatasaray. Seasoned Syndicate Members now surely crave their traditional update on the man’s always wildly fluctuating weight.
I’d say the man holds his own in terms of mass. At that age, one-lamb dish takes a full week to metabolize. He’s doing okay. This year’s incarnation of the “Crescent Stars” are similarly fit and trim. As of this writing, Senol Günes has four more players to trim. One can easily infer who they are.
Putting the lineup together, one doesn’t truly see a squad capable of escaping this group. Note that they should prove capable of giving the Italians a good fight in the opening round of the tournament. A draw against the Azzuri could turn this prediction on its head.
They stand and excellent chance of beating Wales and, lest we forget, upset the Swiss in that enchanted EM 2008 campaign. Günes’ current roster features an interesting mix of veteran talents like Burak Yilmaz and Hakan Calhanoglu working alongside promising youngsters such as Ozan Kabak and brand new phenom Halil Dervisoglu.
Your friendly bookie received many opportunities to scout them this year. Here’s what he portends:
Projecting the Turkish Lineup (4-1-4-1)
Think we’re definitely looking at a 4-1-4-1. The aptly named Okay Yokuslu ensured that all is “okay” as the midfield driver. Fullbacks Umut Meras and Zekin Celik occupy suppressed positions for more methodical back-build triangles.
This arrangement may end up being a victim of its own success in that World Cup Qualifying victories over Norway and the Netherlands have accorded the competition in this group ample chance to examine it.
If Cenk Tosun were healthy and Yokuslu looked more than “okay”, I’d have less qualms about tipping group stage elimination here. At present, it’s hard to see them getting more than one point.
The Talisman—Hakan Calhanoglu
From the moment he emerged out of the Karlsruhe youth ranks, German football fans knew that the “Mannheim Steamroller” would be a star. Calhanoglu is a highly versatile attacking midfielder; creative and intelligent in possession play just like his idol Mesut Özil.
Here we have the team’s X-factor. The 27-year-old can and does occupying all the midfield axial positions in the graphic above. Günes can place him almost anywhere he likes and Calhanoglu will produce. He’s also an exceptionally talented set-piece artist. Watch out.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy Kenan Karaman, Fortuna Düsseldorf The team’s talisman remains a good German boy who also played for Hamburg and Leverkusen before moving on to the Serie A. Plenty of other Germans on this roster too. Kaan Ayhan, Ozan Kabak, among others, are also from the Bundesrepublik.
Here, we’re going to pimp a Stuttgart lad who plays for one of Germany’s fabled cult clubs. Karaman has always proved a joy to watch over the course of four seasons at Fortuna Düsseldorf. So many memorable tallies among the twenty some odd times he found the back of the net.
As a reminder, Düsseldorf is the home of the Kraut-rockers on which this syndicate chapter is themed. Legendary punk rockers die Toten Hosen also hail from this musical mecca.
Neutrals looking for a German club to support might do well to consider the Flingeraner.
Nostalgia Corner
“Terim’s Tenacious Turkmen”
Good lord. Euro 2008. Faithh Terim’s side engineered four consecutive comeback victories in that tournament! It served as one of the greatest footballing shows ever, not least because injuries and suspensions limited Terim to as little as 13 outfielders in the final three fixtures.
Selecting just one of these captivating affairs as our nostalgia clip proved very difficult. Everything was fantastic, including the effort put forth in the semi-final defeat against Germany.
In the end, it simply has to be the theatrical comeback against the Czechs in the final group stage match. One of the all-time greatest moments of all moments. It was a close call as the last-minute goal against the Croats in the quarterfinals also sent shivers down the spine.
Wales—“Dreigau”
Any and all arguments against the expanded 24-Nation-European-field get summarily crushed when one considers how bad-ass it is that we get to welcome back this kingdom. Everyone’s favorite bizarre Brittonic medieval fiefdom is back! Dust off your favorite “Super Furry Animals” vinyl record and get casual. It’s dragon time!
This constitutes just the third time in history that the Welsh have qualified for a major international tournament. In both of the previous instances, they specialized in demolishing the expectations. The kick-ass Arthurians mystify and awe with all the cryptic curiosity of their unpronounceable language.
Jimmy Murphy’s 1958 World Cup side went all the way to the quarterfinals. Chris Coleman’s 2016 version attained the semis, just as your friendly bookie boldly augured that they would. The kick-ass Arthurians shook off a defeat to mother England to top the group, then dispatched kingdom mates Northern Ireland and upset Belgium in the knockouts.
Oh how tempting it is to make another intrepid prediction here. I want so badly to tell everyone that we’ll be singing “Land of my Fathers” deep into this competition. The thing of it is that the Cyd Dragons just don’t have the Smaug-devastation potential this time around. It could have been. It might have been. Unfortunately, disaster struck on virtually every level.
Oh, Ryan Giggs. These troubles were the last thing this country needed. Another scandal involving women. Caretaker trainer Rob Page must deal with a plethora of injury isses. Hal Robson Kanu counts as a huge loss. Aaron Ramsey has had an injury-ridden season. It’s unlike that Joe Allen will be fit in time. The same applies to Ben Davies.
Building this lineup instills in one a sense of dread. Prospects for the Dragons appear about as bleak as that of Chris Coleman’s career at Sunderland A.F.C. Naturally, I could be wrong. Perhaps I’m just confused by how this is all supposed to work; as confused as Christian Gunter when Coleman shouted the infamous words during the 2016 quarters:
Projecting the Welsh Lineup (3-4-3) 
Well, taking all of the injuries into account, I’ve done my best. There’s some potential in it, though similar looking constructs have routinely failed to dazzle in the Nations League and WMQ qualification matches this year.
One big problem here concerns the fact that it’s hard to see them bridging the midfield gap. I like the flat back-three to possibly eke-out a few narrow victories with a tough sense of miserly unity. James Lawrence in particular is a player I can get on board with.
The trio directly buttresses a pair of players in Johnny Williams and Ethan Ampadu that I think complement one another well in that they’re very different. This could supply a quick upfield spark.
We shall see. Page might have something wholly different than Giggs’ preferred 3-4-3 in mind.
The Talisman—Gareth Bale
The true “Prince of Wales” actually spent the season back on loan at Tottenham. Now 31-years-of-age, he’s had four separate spells on the sideline with injury in 2020/21. The man who once smashed the €100 million transfer barrier is a little worse-for-wear these days.
He nevertheless still knows how to score, netting 11 tallies in 20 league appearances for his old club Spurs. Two more came in Europe.
No point in prolonging this section too much as everybody knows that the man with football’s widest mouth remains capable of bridging the gap you see in the constellation above.
Here’s some highlights from his recent form:
We have a couple of choices here. Since James Lawrence of Germany’s other fabled cult club, FC St. Pauli, already got his mention we’ll talk about a most kosher Rabbi. Okay. To squarely disappoint everyone, the name is actually pronounced “Rah-be”. He’s still cool. Trust me.
Rabbi is one of those Schalke youngsters, along with Ahmed Kutucu, who maddeningly failed to live up to his potential. He’s still only 20 and is coming off a decent loan spell with Stoke City.
Not certain where the lad will be playing next season, or even if he’ll feature in this tournament. The pacey winger presumably has little interest in returning to relegated Schalke.
One hopes that, contrary to one’s intuition, Page keeps him on this side and a top-tier Bundesliga club snatches him up. Ah hell. I’ll stick with him and proclaim that he remains on the path to stardom.
This Rabbi enjoys Yahweh’s favor.
Nostalgia Corner
“Rugby Union Blast”
All of 2016 served as a fairy tale for the dragons. With their being no shortage of moments to choose from, I highly recommend that interested readers check out some of the fan montages available on YouTube.
For me, the warmest memory comes from Bale’s set-piece conversion in the losing group stage effort against England. True, Joe Hart might have done better with it. We’re still talking torpedo meets tomahawk.
Wonderful stuff.
Vicey’s Fearless Group Prediction (2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Italy
2) Switzerland
3) Turkey
4) Wales
Overall Championship Odds
Italy (3 to 1)
Switzerland (6 to 1)
Turkey (10 to 1)
Wales (12 to 1)
Round of 16 Odds
Italy (NO BETS)
Switzerland (NO BETS)
Turkey (2 to 1)
Wales (2 to 1)
Quarterfinal Odds
Italy (NO BETS)
Switzerland (Straight Up)
Turkey (3 to 1)
Wales (5 to 1)
Semifinal Odds
Italy (Straight Up)
Switzerland (4 to 1)
Turkey (8 to 1)
Wales (8 to 1)
