Monday, November 5, 2012
It’s officially over Syndicate Members,
Not tomorrow’s election. That could still go either way. Election season is over. Do I make myself clear? No more of this nonsense. It ends now. I’ll elaborate after we take care of some technical business.
More than any other query, bettors have expressed grave concern that the rules of this particular book remain unclear. Fine. I’ll take some time to spell it out for you. Syndicate members usually receive something akin to the following reminder at the onset of every book:
“A QUICK REVIEW OF THE RULES:
Deutschland vs. Italy
The Line: Deutschland +3 Goals
The Favorite is favored to win by 3 goals. If you bet on Italy, there are three ways you can win the bet:
1) Italy loses by less than 3 goals.
2) Match is a draw
3) Italy wins
Conversely, there are two ways to win if you bet on Germany
1) Germany wins by three goals (This is somewhat different. Some would say if the line is met exactly, the wager should be nullified. IMPORTANT: in this system A PRECISE LINE constitutes a win!)
2) Germany wins by more than three goals.”
For the past six years, the syndicate has operated on the premise that a PRECISE LINE constitutes a WIN. To be fair, for the first four years of our little experiment, a precise line meant it was a draw and no money changed hands. The reason I chose not to enclose an instructional equivalent for this book concerns the fact that we will, in all likelihood, NEVER encounter a precise line. In this instance, ALL of the decimal points count. The completion of wagers depends on the final certified total. Let’s do an example:
THE LINE: Romney +1.2%
The Favorite is favored to win by 1.2 percentage points. If you bet on Romney, there’s ONE way you can win the bet:
1) Romney wins by 1.21 percentage points or higher (NO ROUNDING UP HERE)
Conversely, there are TWO ways to win if you bet on Obama
1) Romney wins by less than 1.20 percentage points (AGAIN, NO ROUNDING UP)
2) Obama wins Virginia.
We won’t have to deal with a precise line.
1.20001 = Romney Victory
1.19999 = Obama Victory
Are we clear? Good. Returning to my election eve message to all of you: It’s over. This whole damn charade is over. Nothing left for us to do but plan for the big election eve bash and enjoy each other’s company. Tomorrow, the country will decide which moderate leader will be hamstrung by a stagnate congress over the next four years. It doesn’t matter who wins. No matter what happens, it’ll still be the same country and we all have to get up and go to work the next day. Our political process makes for an easy target. Easy enough to laugh at what an inane and bromidic travesty the whole thing is, but it’s all we’ve got. Might as well sit back and enjoy the spectacle with your friends.
Here’s how your election night should look: Get together with mates that lean red, mates that lean blue, and mates that believe a Libertarian Angel will descend from the heavens and sprinkle magic gold pixie dust on the international monetary system. Get a few TVs running and keep those laptops open. Have a drink and riff with your pals about the county-by-county results. Share some laughs and swap a bit of anecdotal political knowledge. Have fun. Election season is over.
I goddamn well mean what I say. Allow me to reiterate: Election season is OVER!! You’re allowed to pick sides. What I won’t tolerate is any whining or crying from those of you disappointed that your moderate didn’t win. Got that? No matter what happens tomorrow, if I catch any one of you motherfuckers pretending as if it’s the end of the world because your candidate lost, I’ll call you out like the sniffling babies you are. Man up and accept tomorrow’s results, whatever they may be. Vicey decrees it. I’m not presiding over a bunch of unruly children. This is the syndicate. We may be children. We may occasionally even be unruly. We’re sure as hell not babies.
Enjoy your Electoral College lines. Musings are attached to non-competitive states. Swing states are primarily based on the numbers.
Category One—DEEP RED
Alright. Who’s up for a whirlwind tour of the South? Don’t worry….it won’t take long. There really isn’t a hell of lot to do down here. We could go the church, or we can get drunk. Perhaps we’ll kill two birds with one stone. Nothing like inebriated church-goin’. Jesus Juice helps one believe. After we’re done with the Deep South, we’ll head north to visit some bona fide hillbillies. Then we’ll take a westward turn and peruse some crops in the heartland. Finally, we’ll head even further north through no man’s land, all the way up to State that Democrats once insisted be admitted into the Union to counterbalance the Republican tendencies of Hawaii. We’ll chill in Alaska…and see if we can’t catch a glimpse of Russia.
Off we go…..
Absolutely must get this one out of the way first. Welcome to what increasingly looks to be reddest state in the nation….not to mention my eternal home. As most everyone knows, I’m a tried and true Cajun-fried “Lusiana Boy”, as much or more so than anyone else. I may have been born in Germany. My first language may have been German. Nevertheless, my parents toted me over to Sportsman’s Paradise before I was old enough to know what the syntactical fuck a “first language” was. They may have taken me back to Europe to live on a few occasions. I may have voluntarily sojourned over there on a few other occasions. Look….we’re getting off tangent. The point is as follows:
I’m a goddamned Southern Boy and anyone who has anything to say to the contrary will promptly lose every last one of their teeth. I grew up in Baton Rouge, advancing through all levels of the public school system. I learned how to spell “Geaux Tigers” before I mastered “Wednesday”. A large chunk of my childhood was devoted to watching the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros on Woody Jenkins’s Channel 19…..W-BTR….make your day a wonderful day. I caught my first pair of beads at the age of three. I was shouting “SHOW YOUR TITS!” by the age of six. I drank my first beer at the age of eleven.
Southern-reared transplants all too often bitch that they felt like some sort of intellectual “diamond in the rough”. To hell with those delusional and narcissistic fucktards. You’ll never hear that from me. I felt quite at home and still do. Regardless, we must address that there exists a certain problem with being of Southern heritage. Namely, the inferiority complex of many Southerners hinders the ability to remain in contact.
I’ll expand on this. Louisiana has gone deep red and I won’t live to see even the slightest reversal of this trend. What explanation lurks behind this development? After all, my peeps are by no means dumb, ill-informed, or incapable of reasoning. Trouble is, they incorrectly conjecture that others view them as such. It may appear as if I’m making excuses with all the flair of a skilled apologist, but just hear me out.
Nearly every one of my old mates has gone hardcore red, irrespective of what side of the spectrum they previously occupied. Moreover, they often convey to me, in even uglier language, that they consider me an “elitist and condescending snob”. Sad, but true. A man of equal or (most likely) lesser intelligence sits before them, but the inferiority complex cannot be overcome. Here we witness the primary reason why the South will remain Red for the rest of our natural lives, gentlemen. It all comes down to the “you think you’re better than me?” mentality. Well…that and FOX News. Impossible to avoid it in the South. Whether you’re getting your oil changed, scarfing down all-you-eat-pizza, or simply trying to shoot some pool…there’s dickless Hannity on screen. Doing his utmost to compensate for his lack of a penis. Nice makeup, girlie.
So that’s about it with respect to my beloved home. Deeper shades of Red await…and I don’t really care. It remains home. Eons ago I once had a girlfriend who urged me to enter Louisiana Politics. The Pitch went something like this:
“You’ll be the handsome and eloquent politician with the foreign roots. I’ll be the loyal and supportive Southern Belle who legitimizes you and works with local charities. We’ll exude irresistible charm. Together we won’t be beat. Can’t you just picture the photos?”
Paraphrasing of course. Ack. I sternly request that all syndicate members continue to respect our doctrine of privacy dignity. Even if you have some inkling of who this is, forget it immediately. No names are mentioned here. Only mine.
Ahh..to be twenty-years-old again. To be filled with completely idiotic ideas and to even enthusiastically agree with them. I suppose all I wish to add is that I genuinely like growing older, and look forward to doing so with ALL of my Louisiana friends.
THE LINE: Romney +30%
Now that I’m done licking the South’s asshole, fuck this state. My ire doesn’t even remotely relate to the State’s political inclinations. It’s merely time to register my firm opposition to “cheesy grits”. One doesn’t put cheese in the grits. South Carolina may be a ways down the list, but one doesn’t put shrimp in the grits wither. Only one way to eat grits: a single slice of butter approximately two centimeters wide. End of discussion.
THE LINE: Romney +22%
The stars may have fallen on Alabama, but so did the inferiority complex. Inconceivable that we were relatively recently talking about Romney’s inability to compete here. Did anyone actually think they would vote for the black guy?
THE LINE: Romney +26%
The Clintons have long since left for greener pastures and we’ve now got ourselves a “Huckabee State”. In all actuality, there’s not much of a difference between Clinton and Huckabee. Sure one was more socially liberal than the other, but both were exceptionally gifted public speakers who also happened to be extremely bad musicians. Both also publicly struggled with their weight. It’s the “Ar-Kansan” Way.
THE LINE: Romney +25%
You may have scaled the fjords of Scandinavia, China’s Great Wall, and Rio’s awe-inspiring statue. I’ll accept the fact that you’ve sailed the Lake of Zurich, Hang-glided above Milan, been to the top of the Empire State Building, The Eiffel Tower, The St. Louis Arch, the Space Needle, The Burj Dubai and the Petronas Towers. You may have conquered Lagos, Moscow, Delhi, Perth, Istanbul, Rome, London, Budapest, and Madrid. I’ve but one remaining question. Have you been to the “National Shrine of the Infant Baby Jesus” in Prague, Oklahoma?
I thought so. Not impressed.
THE LINE: Romney +30%
Why do we insist that we must “keep Austin weird”? That would be because the rest of the State follows protocol.
THE LINE: Romney +19%
So many incredibly boisterous urban areas in this state. Love me some Chattanooga, Memphis, Knoxville, Nashville, and Chickamauga National Park. Don’t know much about the outlying areas, except for the fact that they vote.
Walking in Memphis…..thanks to that song, I can’t stroll down Beele anymore. How disappointing.
THE LINE: Romney +27%
Bluegrass and Big Tobacco. An avid fan of both types these words. Thanks to the cats of Louisville for all the fun they’ve showed me.
THE LINE: Romney +22%
Wild and wonderful, who can refuse the state of Black Lung disease? Met the only helpful Cop I ever met (and likely ever will meet) in this state. Keep burning the furniture, brothers.
THE LINE: Romney + 25%
No Democrat will ever contest Kansas. Even Jimmy Carter couldn’t win Kansas. Them Prairie Folks don’t take kindly to them peoples who live outside of Wichita.
THE LINE: Romney +25%
Along with Maine, Nebraska is one of two states that split their electoral votes. Neither one of them matter in this election. The Cornhuskers are solid Red while the Pine Tree State bleeds solid Blue. Nice job trying to reform the process.
THE LINE: Romney +16%
It’s Mormon in America. Even the black Mormons will back Romney in the Beehive State.
THE LINE: Romney +37%
All 18,000 Democrats are welcome to vote. It won’t matter. Not even slightly.
THE LINE: Romney +33%
Grade school humor up next: Is it “I-da-ho” or “U-da-ho” A fahahahahahah. Puerile nonsense. You love Pepsi Products? Then why don’t you marry them? Afahahahahahah.
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a few times short of infinity. Growing older is awesome. Believe me.
THE LINE: Romney +38%
This state is all set to do “several Maverick things”. As I briefly mentioned in the introduction, Alaska was once a Democratic Stronghold. Hawaii was the reverse. Things do change. Symmetry and Talleyrand dictate, however, that they must also stay the same.
THE LINE: Romney +29%
Bismarck or Pierre? Always confusing my Dakota capitals. North Dakota continues to exhibit a slightly more conservative bent than South Dakota. This bookie determines that the bent equals roughly two percentage points.
THE LINE: Romney +21%
See above. Yes, your friendly bookie is pressed for time and looking to cut a few corners. Can’t think of anything interesting to say about South Dakota. No…wait a minute. Once upon a time I met a girl from South Dakota. She was a hotter piece of eye candy than some ground-up “Fierce-Cinnamon” Hot tamales applied directly to the cornea. Yeah…that’s all I’ve got. Truly sorry.
Rest in Peace, George McGovern.
THE LINE: Romney +19%
They all say it’s going to be close. “They” all don’t know what the fuck they’re talking about.
THE LINE: Romney +11%
John McCain may have barely eked out a 0.1% victory here in 2008. The Show-Me-State may have disproportionately benefited from the infrastructure money dispensed in the stimulus package. Todd Akin may be mistaken about baby makin. Nothing will prevent this state from an inexorable slide into deep red. It’s a conservative territory; a wannabe confederate state. Kansas City, St. Louis, and a handful of sleepy university towns will persist as hazel blue islands in a sea of bible-thumping malcontents.
The GOP obtains a generous flip here and in other realms where outrage over the anemic pace of the recovery has hit too close to home. My projections (which you’ve surely already skipped to the end to read) give Obama a 279-267 victory. By comparison, he walloped McCain 365-173. The Dems will most certainly lose Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Iowa. They might even forfeit Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Zero chance Obama competes in this backwater. People here don’t even need a reason to be pissed off and surly…they just are by default.
THE LINE: Romney +14%
The Hoosiers are right fucking pissed. Mitch Daniels may not have been as successful as Scott Walker in beating back unions, but he’s proved popular enough with the Crossroads populace to nearly get drafted for a presidential run. Obama carried the state by just over a percentage point in 2008. Romney, courtesy of Daniels, gains an easy pickup.
THE LINE: Romney +10%
Polls show Obama narrowing Romney’s lead in the Palmetto State. I’m kidding of course. No one even bothers to pay the increasingly hefty prices for professional polling in South Carolina. That would involve sending at least some ground canvassers to this wretched assembly of backcountry boondocks. The state only has two metropolitan municipalities, both of which will vote red. The University town of Columbia (pop approx 130,000) also houses the capital and every last conservative mind associated with it. Historic Charlestown (also pop approx 130,000) has in large part already voted. All the affluent southern gentlemen have left the harbor and are know sipping martinis on their yachts. It’s over here.
THE LINE: Romney +22%
Speaking of Southern states with only two significant metropolitan areas, one wholly artificial and the other a historic haven for the inbred generational rich. Much like in Charleston, all the fine Southern gentlemen of Savannah have already voted and are now relaxing on the porch smoking stogies and sipping Mint Juleps. Lucky bastards…
Much like Columbia, Atlanta doesn’t technically qualify as a “city”. Yeah, you heard me. Until someone invites me to “Freaknik”, your city SUCKS! I can’t think of a more boring place to visit. Okay…maybe Houston just barely beats you. In any event FUCK your “city.” First it was a railway terminus. Later it was an airport. Now it’s a sprawling collection of strip malls connected by 11,234 streets all inexplicably named “Peachtree Way”. It provides the backdrop for shitty Tom Wolfe novels, horrendously bad movies about homeboy roller-skaters, and embarrassingly pathetic rap songs about the “playas” who “own” the strip malls.
The only positive aspect of Atlanta, the city that all of us who travel extensively by air are forced to visit no fewer than a dozen times a year, would be the smoking lounge in four of the airports five terminals. Appreciate that if nothing else.
THE LINE: Romney +18%
Some polls show this contest as competitive, but I a’int buying it. A rising Hispanic population and the surprisingly sympathetic bent of the vast amounts of Phoenix suburban homeowners who hire them to mow the lawn means we’ll live to see the state to go pink…perhaps even a light shade of salmon or fuchsia.
The current shift necessitates that we must consider Arizona “in play” for all subsequent elections. Keep that in mind. Four years from now some Arnold-Palmer slurping yuppie will make a half-assed attempt to demonstrate intellect by tossing out the following comment over an exorbitantly expensive lunch of organic Arugula and Limburger:
“You know, the Democrats might carry Arizona this year.”
Don’t you believe him? Nothing against Arnold-Palmer slurping yuppies. In fact, once I’m finished with this section I think I’ll saunter on over to the neighborhood bodega and grab me on of those Arizona Tea Arnold Palmers. Mmmmm. Maybe even one of those Jack Niklaus “Golden Bear” honey tea with ginseng concoctions. So refreshing. They also do some fantastic Mango, Watermelon, and Peach varieties sure to slake your thirst. Ahhh..I can taste it now. Mmmm. Today, I do believe I’ll channel my inner black dude and guzzle down the grape-flavored one. There we go. A cold purple beverage for me this evening. That’s how we’ll roll dawg.
Anyway, obeying my snoop-dogg-inspired thirst will have to wait a bit. I was meant to be telling you something before I went off the rails and wrote 100 plus words of free advertising copy for Arizona Iced Tea. Oh right. Arizona will never go blue. Outside of Phoenix and Tucson, the whole state more or less resembles Sheriff Joe’s Maricopa Country.
That disgusting warthog should consider himself lucky that I’m thirsty. Otherwise I’d unleash a tirade of epic proportions, detailing precisely why that filthy pig should be anally raped and skinned alive. Next time, piggy. Go sniff me out some truffles, swine.
THE LINE: Romney +9%
Category Two—DEEP BLUE
Time to gaze upon the oceans. We’ll go from sea to shining sea, stopping over briefly in some folksy NPR-hamlets to listen to the soft-spoken yarns a Garrison Keillor. Time permitting; we’ll touch down in Chi-Town to gorge ourselves on some of the most artery-clogging food-like substances you’ve ever seen. If I hear one more pundit take James Carville’s quote about Pennsylvania and deliver a smirking, I’m-so-clever “We can extrapolate this model to the entire country” observation, I’m going to jump through the television screen and strangle these worthless talking heads with a lamp chord. Yeah, we get it. The electoral map of the country looks like a triple-stuffed Oreo. Blah, blah, blah. Blue coasts. Red heartland. How about you fucking choke on a triple-stuffed Oreo?
It’s all Obama, all along the Archipelago. Up and down all the eight major islands it’s solid blue. The democratic ticket prevails on the nine lesser-known islands. Even the hundreds of uninhabited islands are littered with Obama/Biden campaign placards. Even the volcanic groundswell in the northeast corner of the Hawaiian Hot-Spot, not expected to surface for another 8,000 years, is home to a bevy of vent-hugging single-celled organisms…all of whom are supporting Obama.
THE LINE: Obama +30%
Yes…it’s time to bring up the Coastal microcosm again. Blah, blah, blah. The further one gets away from the Pacific Ocean, the more rural and red the….dammit. Why must voting blocs always be so formulaic and predictable? George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win California. His son was the last to contest it. The state will remain solid blue for the duration of all our lives.
THE LINE: Obama +17%
The Dems dominate Seattle and its wayward cousin “Portlandia” down in Oregon. Historically, these regions have always been the most progressive in the country. They were once solid Republican, back when the GOP was actually a progressive party. Both cities will continue to mutate into comically absurd neo-hippie areas for some time to come.
THE LINE: Obama +14%
Picking up where we left off, Portlandia should prove enough to cancel out the more split or even right-leaning bergs of Eugene, Salem, Gresham, and Hillsboro. The Pacific Blue Sweep shall be preserved, but the final tally in Oregon will be closer than most would casually assume.
THE LINE: Obama +5%
The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Illinois? George H.W. in ’88. He was also the last to contest it. The Land of Lincoln votes almost exclusively Blue. We’re not talking merely the behemoth of Chicago (Note to all of those using the “Obama’s Chicago Style Politics” Talking Point: As usual, you have no idea what you’re talking about. Kindly shut the fuck up.) Other liberal areas include East St. Louis, Springfield, Peoria, and Champagne-Urbana. Even the Prairie Counties look to be a push. Contrary to national trends, Illinois retains agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
We all know what that means: John Mellencamp is coming to down and he has a special song just for you.
“Working in a factory,
Out on the edge of town,
Got my union card,
Crickets make a nice sound”
“This is ooour country”
THE LINE: Obama +19%
New York hasn’t gone red since Reagan carried it in 1984. Pedantic analysis might lead one to falsely conclude that the GOP still maintains a presence in upstate New York. That’s actually a stale assessment that hasn’t been applicable for over fifteen years. Upstate New York has mostly gone light blue, cerulean, or even sapphire. Obama wins big here.
THE LINE: Obama +28%
It doesn’t get much more liberal than this idyllic countryside haven. Hell, even the state Republican caucus produces literature that looks as if it came out of an Identity Politics Seminar. The first state to legalize gay marriage, these people may even be blue enough to give Santorum precisely what he wants. Man on dog can’t be far behind.
THE LINE: Obama +30%
Forget it, Republicans. This one’s for Boston. For Boston, for Boston! Reagan may have carried Massachusetts in 1984, but it was by the narrowest of flukiest of margins. The Codfishers voted for McGovern in 1974 for fuck’s sake. You’ll never see this state go red. EVER. Romney has become fond of citing how he fearlessly “worked in a bipartisan manner with the state legislature to get things done”…as if he had a choice. Of course that was a very different Romney: Pro-Choice, Pro-universal health care, pro-government subsidies, pro-trade, and less than zealous about firearms. In other words, THAT’S the Romney we can expect as president. Sorry to shit on your dreams, FOX News enthusiasts. He’s a Massachusetts moderate. You’ve done a great service to the New England brand of politics.
Let’s go Murphys!
THE LINE: Obama +22%
The nearly 500,000 registered voters of Rhode Island have spoken! Impossible to fuck up a poll in this state. Screw finding a representative sample. Just go ahead and call everyone while you’re at it.
THE LINE: Obama +23%
No way the Blue Hens disappoint Grandpa Joe. Amtrak could dress him up in ladies lingerie and have him dance seductively a remix to the Quad City DJ’s “C’mon Ride that Train” and the voters of Delaware would still fawn all over him. Hmmm….come to think of it, that’s probably the best idea this burnt-out writer has come up with all night. Someone get on that. I’d like to see that.
Well, judging by the ever-diminishing quality of my prose, you’re correct to deduce that it’s probably time to take a break. Let’s get off politics for a second and delve into a “musical interlude”. I’ve made modest progress on the promised piece “500 Shades of Euro-Trash”; a celebration of all the stunningly god-awful music to attain popularity over the past two decades. Essentially a re-tooling of the list we began compiling this summer, I hope to have it finished towards the end of the year.
Before we go pissing on Europe for its astonishingly bad musical taste, I wish to submit the Quad City DJ’s as evidence that America too can occasionally stray far from the confines of meritorious Pop Music. Honestly, what the hell were we thinking? The mid-90s proved to be a terrible time for lyricist. It was around this time that the flannel-clad grunge band “The Presidents of the United States of America” discovered that “can” rhymes with “man” and phoned in a little diddy about moving to the country in order to ingest copious amounts of peaches.
Did we accept it? Damn right we did. We sung along to a tune composed by a recording studio full of talentless hacks who essentially went, “Fuck it. I’m out of ideas. Can’t we write a song about this Chinese takeout we’re eating? No? That would be an obvious cop-out. How about the fruit sitting on our manager’s desk? Can we write a song about that? Sure, why not? We’ll call it “Peaches”.
Likewise, I can’t imagine the session during which the Quad City DJs cranked out “C’mon Ride that Train” was a brainstorming session featuring a lot of horsepower. “Okay guys. We’ve got the hook. ‘C’mon Ride that Train’. Now we’ve got to dress it up a bit. Ideas anyone? How about if we add ‘..and ride it’ right after the hook. Sound good to everyone? We still need something else. I’ve got it. How about if we had a line about how “It’s a Choo-choo train”. Great. That’s lunch everyone. C’mon ride that train…and ride it. It’s a Choo-choo train. We’re geniuses.”
Whew. I needed that. Back to this boring-ass election.
THE LINE: Obama +26%
Terrific responses thus far to my anti-cop rants. I’ll publish the best ones in the coming mailbag section. For now, suffice to say that this line generated some sparks:
“The citizens of Baltimore, blessings be upon them, will not elect a cop”.
You’ve got to keep the Romney, waaaay down in the hole.
THE LINE: Obama +21%
District of Columbia
I’m deathly serious about the line below. Check her out. Obama captures D.C.’s three electoral votes by EIGHTY-TWO PERCENT. Try your luck if you think I’m bluffing.
THE LINE: Obama +82%
Connecticut may essentially be considered “Massachusetts-Lite”. Wave after wave of working class European immigrants settled in the Eastern Seaboard, got on board with FDR, and remained with the party through de-alignment.
THE LINE: Obama +12%
A sweep of statewide elections in 2010 left the GOP with some hope that they might finally be able to flip Maine back to their. After all, it’s where ex-prez George H.W. lives and has a reputation for quirky independence. The latest polls suggest the prospects for turnover hover just above nil. Quinnipiac has Obama pulling away.
THE LINE: Obama +13%
The Garden State was lost far before Hurricane Sandy made landfall. Now you’ve got Obama and Chris Christie acting like regular old chums. Note your friendly bookie has Obama over performing here. My line is a full three percentage points above the latest data from the Philadelphia Inquirer.
THE LINE: Obama +13%
In 2000, the Land of Enchantment stood as a lonely blue isle amid a central sea of red. In 2004 it flipped back to George W. Bush. In the intervening years, the growth of Albuquerque appears to have solidified the state as straight blue for years to come.
THE LINE: Obama +9%
But what about Michelle Bachman and Jesse “The Body” Ventura? Meh. The “Hot off the Press” Weekend polling shows Obama padding his lead. Minnesota’s innovative late-registration laws require that the bookie sets a cautious line, but a victory for Romney here would be nothing short of miraculous.
THE LINE: Obama +7%
Category Three—DEEP PURPLE
Finally we arrive at the only states that matter. Finding a website that will enable you to calculate “Path to 271” Permutations will take all of 3.8 seconds. Hence, I won’t link to them. The permutations make for splendid procrastination and should play a significant role in your election eve party. I reiterate, just have fun.
Who’s up for some decimals? Not me. Not just yet. Spates of polls give Obama the slight edge here. This bookie finds that edge far too razor thin. Furthermore, most of the polling companies contracted to work here are of circumspect reputations. Liberal optimists may wish to hop on this special. Dozens of firms project a tight Obama win, but I’m calling it a toss-up.
THE LINE: Pick em’
The lead in this state has changed no fewer than four times over the past six weeks. To utilize a cliché, one can’t make heads or tails of it. Gallup and Rasmussen are split, each giving one candidate a wholly insignificant lead under one percent. Might as well flip a coin as a 0.2 percent lead only makes one think “margin of error”.
THE LINE: Pick em’
Democratic pollsters have Obama leading by as much as three. GOP commissioned firms have Romney up by one. The Des Moines Register has Obama up by four, but their sample size appears too small. Ahem. I now declare myself ready for decimals.
THE LINE: Obama +0.6%
Every agency other than Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead. Libs may cry foul, but I consider Rasmussen to be a legitimate organization in spite of any perceived bias. Credence shall be lent.
THE LINE: Obama +2.8%
Wasn’t bailing out the Auto Industry good enough? Not according to Democratic pollsters, who cannot manage to demonstrate a consistent lead for their candidate. We’ll be burning the midnight oil watching this one.
THE LINE: Obama +1.7%
Is anyone else tired of hearing about Ohio? The State that decided the 2004 Presidential election now obstinately refuses to shut the fuck up. For much of the past three months, Obama has maintained a solid 5-6 point lead, barely outside of the margin error. Weekend polling, however, has Romney nipping at his heels.
THE LINE: Obama +2.5%
We’ve dispatched virtually every company out there to research this state. Potential sampling errors dictate that it must remain a toss-up. It remains worth noting that Obama leads in EVERY poll. Margin of error be damned, I’ll go out on a limb and predict a safe victory.
THE LINE: Obama +3.7%
Oh do these first-in-the-nation primary voters love their politics. They’ve grown so accustomed to politicians approaching on bended knee, prepared to promise all sorts of unrealistic favors before they even get a chance to perform fellatio. They want to keep us guessing. They might as well keep us guessing. Not wasting my time divining their intent.
THE LINE: Pick em’
Talk about a battleground contest. The lead has flipped seven times in six weeks. The latest polls have Obama ahead by a whopping 0.15%. How the analytical fuck am I supposed to set a line on that? I can’t. Instead, I’ll wager on Romney’s stewardship of the lead for most of the past three weeks.
THE LINE: Romney +1.2%
When Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, the democrats made truly historic inroads. For the first time sine the Civil Rights Act, Democrats captured a portion of the South in a year when Ross Perot wasn’t running. Time for an anecdote. I was having a blast at a great election party out in Monterrey California. Pacific Time read 7:44 P.M, or sixteen minutes before the California Polls closed. When FOX News projected Obama the winner in North Carolina, the election was officially over. California would drop in sixteen minutes, and North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes put Obama above 270. Within that practically quarter of an hour span, I managed to make over 30 phone calls, send over 40 texts, and alert everyone at the party that the election was over. To this day, it remains the most memorable sixteen minutes of my life.
A few years later I would learn that I wasn’t the only one who saw the North Carolina projection as a historic moment. These were surely the most memorable sixteen minutes of then candidate Obama’s life. It was such that he personally insisted that the Democratic National Convention be held in Charlotte. The Dems have indeed pulled out all the stops to lobby for this state to remain in their column. It won’t. Statistically speaking we’ve got a dead heat, but Obama hasn’t led here since early September.
THE LINE: Romney +4.6%
Ugh. We’ve got a mess on our hands….again. The polls have been all over the place. The partisan polls aren’t showing their candidates ahead. The paragon polls aren’t showing us much of anything. It took me over an hour to study over 60 polls conducted over the past six months to come up with this line. Romney has the momentum. Shit. I could have gotten drunk and come up with that concluding sentence. “Romney has the momentum”. Perhaps it’s time for that beer.
THE LINE: Romney +1.9%
(Obama wins re-election…..barely.)
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Happy Election Season (once again) Syndicate members,
As some of you may know, I’ve been crisscrossing the country in order to take care of some irritatingly inconvenient business. Such errands have an upside. Thanks to them, we’ll forgo the verbose introduction. Anyone looking for something more thoughtful may refer to the previous post. YAY! I’d like to take this opportunity to thank my friends in South Louisiana. Thank you for yet again ensuring that I get absolutely nothing done while visiting my home city. If you detect a hint of sarcasm in that statement, you cannot possibly imagine how wrong you are. I genuinely love those who have made it their life’s mission to convince me that there is more to life than working. Thank you, mates. It’s no wonder I keep coming back.
I’d also like to thank all of those who have either wagered or sent me a witty e-mail. It doesn’t look as if there will be enough time to accommodate all of your quality banter between now and Monday’s final election blog. I nonetheless commit myself to a post-election mailbag, along with some of those trademark “retroactive notes”. We’ll have all sorts of fun after the lines are done. Onwards to those lines….
Thanks to the “intent to filibuster”, America now sports the only disproportionately un-democratic bicameral legislature in the world. Now those of you on the left need to take a seat. Though the “intent to filibuster” provision initially debuted in the 1970s, the Democrats were the first to take advantage of this “silent coup d’etat.”. Now we must deal with a senate that requires a 60-vote supermajority…and it’s disgraceful. Moreover, Dems should be particularly ashamed of the fact that the “two-senator” protocol unequally affords them representation. Yes, it’s true. States such as Montana, Wyoming, North/South Dakota, Idaho, and South Carolina have absolutely no business having two representatives in this nonsymmetrical powerful body. Neither do States like Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Maryland, and Vermont.
I won’t prolong this pedantic discussion of our broken democracy much longer. I’ll simply channel the spirit of Thomas Jefferson:
“The United States doesn’t need a Senate…….and black chicks are a good lay.”
Category One—DEEP RED
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Paul Sadler (D)
Everyone knows what this chamber needs. More obstinacy! We're set to get it with Tea bagger Ted Cruz replacing moderate Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Ooops, did I let some blatant partisanship slip? Sorry. Look, I personally se nothing wrong with Tea bagging. It’s perfectly acceptable…..er….at least in my bathhouse.
Hutchinson announced she would not seek a fourth term in 2009, primarily in order to solicit high profile endorsements for her failed gubernatorial run. The establishment obliged and she all members of the Bush-Clan: Dubya, “turd blossom” Karl Rove, Bionic man Dick Cheney, and family consigliere James Baker. Expectations soared that she would out-maneuver Rick Perry in the primary. After all, this is the state that elected Ann Richards. Unfortunately her campaign never got off the ground and she suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Josh Broli….er Perry.
The Bushies kept their part of the bargain, campaigning for Kay even though she’s pro-Choice and low-key. Kay then in turn kept her word, stepping aside to allowing the Republican candidates to duke it out in the primary. Lawyer and state house rep Paul Sadler was never considered to constitute much of a challenge.
Ultra conservative Cuban Religious Rights lawyer Ted Cruz beat out Lieutenant Governor David Dewherst in what many political junkies (including this C-Span addict) considered a monumental upset. Apparently, the endorsement of the Bush clan isn’t playing as well as it used to. Cruz may essentially be thought of as the original Marco Rubio. In the Senate he plans to stick close to Jim Demint and Rand Paul, possibly participating in a circle-jerk session whilst they lovingly fawn over an artist’s rendering of John Galt.
The over/under on how many times he will invoke Ayn Rand on the Senate floor…hmmm…six years…I’ll place it at 6,846.
THE LINE: Cruz +22%
Orrin Hatch (R) vs. Scott Howell (D)
Hatch heeded the lessons of his ill-fated colleague Bob Bennett quite well. He proved especially proactive in avoiding a tea bagging during the primary, aggressively pandering to his state’s version of the New Right. Team Orrin immediately dug up dirt on challenger Dan Liljenquist, leaking the fact that he remained delinquent on his back taxes to the Salt Lake media the day before he announced his run. Liljenquist never recovered. To the former state senator’s credit, he played it relatively clean, eschewing any use of the “RHINO Card” during the primary. Unfortunately, this enabled Hatch to thoroughly bitchslap him to capture the nomination for his sixth term.
The Big O enjoys immense popularity among the voters of Utah and earns regular plaudits from his Senate colleagues across the aisle. He’ll crush former IBM executive, Utah State Senator, and business professor Scott Howell.
THE LINE: Hatch +38%
John Barrasso (R) vs. Tim Chestnut (D)
In the land of Cheney, John Barrasso will easily cruise to a second legitimate term. The State’s 18,000 or so Democrats selected rural selectman Tim Chestnut for the symbolic opposition.
An interesting fact concerning Barrasso: He actually had the balls to tell Grover Norquist to take his “Tax Pledge” and shove it. Hell, he’s earned my vote. I’ll gladly move to Jackson Hole, Cheyenne or…er…any other civilized outposts there happen to be in Wyoming.
THE LINE: Barrasso +38%
Roger Wicker (R) vs. Albert Gore (D)
Ahem. Do allow me to summarize the current mantra of the Mississippi Democratic Party (assuming one even exists): Fuck it. Let’s run some guy named “Albert Gore”. No your eyes don’t deceive you. In what easily happens to be the dumbest, poorest, most backward state in the country, the Dems are running a guy named “Albert Gore”. They can’t possibly fucking be serious….but they are.
Welcome to the most lopsided landslide of the 2012 Election. Why makes you so certain, Vicey? Because I’m convinced that a plurality of the voters will ACTUALLY think that the former Vice President is running. Good god. The 86,000 or so actual Mississippi Democrats (not counting those to lazy to change their generational party affiliation from the Reconstruction Era) have surrendered faster than a Vichy appointee spaced out on a date rape drug,
Nothing to see here. Moving on.
THE LINE: Wicker +45%
Bob Corker (R) vs. Michael Clayton (D)
The Dems appeared to have it all sewn up during their tide year of 2006. Majority Leader Bill Frist kept his word and retired. African American third generation civil rights activist Harold Ford Jr. was all set to be Tennessee’s very of version of Obama. While his initial numbers were strong, a plethora of personality defects emerged down the stretch run. The race tightened up and got especially nasty. A controversial last-minute ad that depicted Ford as “somewhat fond of the white ladies” put Corker, who would have probably won anyway, over the top.
These days Ford is primarily known for his patently stupid attempt to wrest the democratic nomination away from New York senator Kirsten Gillebrand while Corker has mostly voted with his conservative colleagues, only breaking with the GOP Caucus to support the START Revamp.
Corker will roll all over insurance agent Mark Clayton, who happens to be a rambling retard the likes of which make me look like a sophisticated elder statesmen. I highly recommend his website to anyone looking to get a good laugh out of totally incoherent lunatic. Do you consider me a ranting, raving psycho with a low-quality website? Check this moron out:
For those lacking the time to muck around with links, I’ll lift some my favorite nonsensical passage from his perambulating mission statement. Note that this frighteningly demented fool occasionally likes to write in all caps. Note also that I’ve even done him a favor by simplifying his text, ensuring that it’s all in one color and one font size. I encourage you to check out the actual text, which abruptly oscillates between regular and size 64 font for no apparent reason and also features far more colors, underlines, and italics.
“Even Condoleeza Rice has said that Hillary has done a good job, but Bob Corker with his TRIPS TO FORTY-SEVEN FOREIGN COUNTRIES BUT ONLY ONE FOREIGN POLICY BILL and his MANY trips all over the world, ALL WHILE ON HIS FUMING OUT UNWARRANTED ATTACK TEMPER-TANTRUMS AGAINST HILLARY still thinks that you and I are going to let him pass himself off as a senator who can be in charge of foreign policy. NO!! WE ARE GOING TO STOP BOB CORKER!! AND NO!! WE ARE NOT GOING TO LET BOB CORKER GET AWAY WITH ATTACKING HILLARY CLINTON WHEN SHE HAS DONE A BETTER JOB THAN HE EVER COULD HAVE DREAMED OF DOING -- ON HIS BEST DAY WHICH WOULD NOT BE SAYING MUCH.”
Fortunately, Tennessee has an old, forgotten friend who can help us STOP THE MADNESS. America and Tennessee have begun to drift too far and forgotten our old friend, of which I am a part, and which has never left Tennessee and your old friend is waiting for you to come back home -- together for freedom once again -- the way your parents did in days gone by -- AND JOIN FORCES -- join forces with the hundreds of thousands of Christians left in Tennessee's Democratic Party who are holding the line and desperately urging you to help us bring America back from the spiritual dark ages and to help us uphold some of the more forgotten principles which Dr. King talked about from the Bible. When we say that we believe in liberty and justice FOR ALL, regardless of race, creed, color, religion, or national origin -- we mean business!!! And we are here to take care of the business of the people of Tennessee according to the REAL principles of freedom and DEFEND YOUR RIGHTS -- NOT JUST SOME OF THEM -- BUT ALL OF THEM!!! One of the places where Christians on the left are still strong is right here in Tennessee, so your friends and I in the Tennessee Democratic Party are asking you to take a stand with us for God and the Constitution, pray with us for Jerusalem, and Vote for me, Mark Clayton, on November 6th.
Bob Corker does not know, like we do, how to STOP THE TERRORISTS, and Bob Corker's code phrases indicate that he wants more "boots on the ground" as the only solution that he knows about and neither knows nor cares about the value of humanitarian organizations and what the very important role they play keeping Al Qaeda at bay. Anyone who has been in Washington, D.C. for six years and is qualified in foreign policy knows people like Al Santoli, but every indication is that Bob Corker utterly clueless.”
Calm down, Mark. It’s okay. Everything is going to be alright. Just take the medication. You’ll be fine.
THE LINE: Corker +40%
Deb Fischer (R) vs. Bob Kerrey (D)
Turnover alert! Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson (most commonly known as the architect of the Health Care Bill after Tom Daschle was forced out and Max Baucus handed off) threw one glance at the numbers and opted to retire rather than face a humiliating defeat. Most every hardcore Dem one speaks to will not consider this an especially significant loss, given the woefully shitty job Nelson did with Obama’s signature campaign promise. Nelson lost the support of everyone after producing this turd of a landmark legislation. Those on the left decried the fact that he recycled Bob Dole’s mid-90s plan, left single payer/public option off the table, did nothing to address the American “Fee for Services” System and summarily failed to get his caucus on the same PR Page. Republicans continue to howl that this “government takeover of healthcare” amounts to a “radical communist plot to destroy the foundational values of freedom”….or some such shit.
Alles Klar. It’s perfectly acceptable for Nelson to take the fall for his meek effort to play conciliatory politics with perhaps the most pressing issue that threatens long-term U.S. financial stability. It’s entirely reasonable for Nelson to pay the price for fucking with the milquetoast nonsense Max Baucus concocted. What remains unacceptable is the utter lack of knowledge about this bill among those who would fiercely debate it. Yes, I’m talking to you Facebook Fiends. I know you have the urge to fuck-off at work. We all need to waste time in order to be productive. Consider doing so by reading the bill as opposed to posting self-righteous comments about it. The advent of the digital age may have given us all a voice, but it’s also bestowed upon us unprecedented access to the workings of our government. Exploring the latter before exercising the former turns out to be quite fulfilling. Believe me.
With that little mini-diatribe off my chest, let’s move on to the actual contest. The Dems have drafted Bob Kerrey out of retirement. He actually held the seat that Nelson inherited back in 2000. State Rep Deb Fischer upset two more established Republicans in the primary and was seen as vulnerable. Though not technically a member of the Tea Party, reports indicate that the “New Right” courts her hard in the hopes that she may be added to their roster of “underdog champions”. Should she eventually submit, we’ll have now covered two Republicans (Cruz being the other one) whose sole job in the Senate will be to slow and obstruct the business of this already languid chamber. Are we keeping track. We’re now at TWO.
Whether or not Fischer will win isn’t the issue. Who she aligns herself with is. Bob Kerrey doesn’t stand much of a chance after living in New York since his retirement.
THE LINE: Fischer +11%
Category Two—DEEP BLUE
Maria Cantwell (D) vs. Michael Baumgartner (R)
Growing up the Deep South, I had the diffident pleasure of constantly hearing my High School Free Enterprise Instructor constantly angrily referring to the Pacific Time Zone as “The Left Coast”. “Luckily we’ve got core conservative values down here in Louisiana,” he would say. Can’t say this irresponsibly shallow propaganda didn’t irk me. Luckily, right next to the school there happened to be a parking lot to toke up in. Trouble is, he was right, and I can (summoning up some empathy) see where the good old boy was coming from. The middle of the country resents the progressivism emanating from the coasts. Period. Even though this “Son of the South” never (not even once) encountered someone on the coast who condescended to him because of his Southern Roots, the belief that someone might permeates the mind of the Southern Conservative.
Hmmm…okay. To hop of this topic, we’ve got ourselves another essay for another time. The only point to be retained pertains to the reality that the Pacific Coast is quite blue. They’re proud of their women and even eminently qualified Michael Baumgartner can hope to unseat Cantwell…nor should he. Cantwell is sharp as a tack, incredibly well-informed and hard working. Has your friendly bookie mentioned that he absolutely loves industrious and driven women?
That needs to be said. The response of your average male would be to run away, cry his eyes out, and only date women who cook for him for the rest of his life.
THE LINE: Cantwell +13%
Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Elizabeth Emken(R)
Continuing our tour of “Left Coast Women” that Vicey has a strange Freudian fascination with, Diane Feinstein will return. It’s Ladies night…and the feeling’s right. Both Feinstein and Barbara Boxer rode in on Clinton’s coattails in 1992. Over the intervening two decades they’ve become unbeatable fixtures on the California scene. The GOP has drafted a credible challenger in UCLA Alum and Autism advocate Elizabeth Emken. Prior to her advocacy career, Emken maintained a corporate gig with IBM while simultaneously raising three children. She’s an impressive character, but not nearly impressive enough to unseat Feinstein, who has savvy, moxie, and even an intriguing independent streak.
THE LINE: Feinstein +22%
Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Kurt Bills (R)
All hail “working women”. Fuck “girl power”. Skilled attorney Amy Klobuchar has captured the hearts of Minnesota voters in spite of the (surprisingly if you must) even split of the state’s voter registration. She’s smart. She’s bipartisan. She’s a workhorse. She’s kicking the shit out of High School Economics teacher Kurt Bills, who in fifteen years of experience appears to have learned little beyond the basics of the pedantic “Supply & Demand” Model.
Keep your eye on Amy. You may be potentially looking at the next Supreme Court nominee or even a 2016 candidate.
THE LINE: Klobuchar +31%
Bernie Sanders (I) vs. John MacGovern (R)
Okay. First things first. You pinkos (and you know who you are) who e-mailed me insisting that I mention the time Dick Cheney told Bernie Sanders to “fuck off” on the floor of the U.S. Senate: I may not have had the time to respond to you individually, but you’re thinking of Patrick Leahy, the other Vermont senator. Stupidity pulls my strings, irrespective of which side of the political spectrum it’s coming from.
Steady yourselves. Sanders, technically an independent, caucuses with the Democrats as a….are you ready….. “European-Style Socialist” Sigh. I should like Bernie, but he’s really not doing any part of my life any favors. To begin with, Bernie actually endorses positions that are significantly to the left of most European Social Democratic parties…okay with the possible exception of the Swedish center-right alliance (yes…the CENTER-RIGHT alliance). Secondly, and of greater importance, ………..I just can’t do it anymore. I can’t do it. I’m so fucking tired of explaining that countries like France and Germany actually have capitalist economies. No more. I beg of you. I can’t take it anymore!!
Something is rotten in the state of America. Every asshole who ever took a Poli-Sci course at a community college is convinced that Europe’s core represents a socialist engine. No, no, NOOOOOO! Yes, there are social democratic parties. Yes, the tax code is a shade more progressive and the social safety net a bit broader. That doesn’t translate to Socialism! We have a free market. We have entrepreneurship. We have a stock exchange where pensions both state and private pensions are invested. We have privatized government entities. We have consumption indices. We have non-unionized labor, private health insurance, and corporate tax exemptions. Won’t you please shut the fuck up? Just shut the fuck up. “Hey man, you may have intricate knowledge of German/French politics…but I took a Poli-Sci course at UL-Monroe” doesn’t even begin to be a fucking argument!! I humbly beseech you to shut the fuck up. I can’t take it anymore.
Now you know why I can’t support Bernie. Moreover, I think he should be kept away from Obama at all times. He’s fighting the wrong fight….and will continue to do so.
THE LINE: Sanders +14%
Debbie Stabenow (D) vs. Pete Hoekstra (R)
Pay attention, Sarah. Michigan is lost. No point in you “going rouge”. Might I suggest you “Go Rouge”? Spend some time with my people. You’ll feel better…and you might even lose that obnoxious accent/faux folksy tone. Hoekstra killed his chances with a 2012 Super Bowl Ad universally agreed upon as fucking ridiculous. Puerile Pete hired an Asian California Beauty Queen to portray a Chinese girl thanking Stabenow for selling her U.S. Debt. The ditz has since disavowed her involvement in the Ad, claiming she……I don’t fucking know……claiming her job was to have a nice pair of tits and read the script. Hoekstra doubled down on his trifling and hollow attempt to pretend as if the Chinese will some day own America…and now he’ll pay the price.
THE LINE: Stabenow +16%
Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R)
Robert Byrd is dead. Very much the tragedy as he was only 93-years-of-age and mentally unstable. Too many of us will recall the Robert Byrd who suffered from dementia, had trouble with time/space, and mistakenly thought he was still a member of the Klu Klux Klan. True, this man enjoyed close relations with n****r hater/lover Strom Thurmond. True, he joined with Thurmond to filibuster the Civil Rights Act of 1964. True, he siphoned off an unbelievable amount of pork for his debtor state. True, his anti-dog fighting speech straddled the line between semi-legitimate address and grandpa’s drunken vaudeville revue. I choose to remember the Robert Byrd that did what no Democrat dared to do back in 2002: He opposed the creation of the Homeland Security Department. He even took a full print out of the entire measure, threw in down on the podium and declared “This monstrosity shows how we’ve lost our way”.
In his speech that day, Byrd emphatically averred, “It’s as if Washington told the troops crossing the Delaware, stay on the other side and build a bureaucracy.” Well done, late senator. We’ve done more than give more unqualified losers classified access. You had it right. I’m looking very much forward to the news of the black child you fathered. “Old Dixie” doesn’t bother me…so long as you got it right in the end.
Anyway, replacement Joe Manchin has proven popular enough with West Virginia voters. He’ll surely mop the floor with purported businessman John Raese, who has run for office four times…and also lost four times.
THE LINE: Manchin +30%
Robert Menendez (D) vs. Joe Kyrillos (R)
We’ll all remember Robert Menendez as the dolt who turned his Sonia Sotomayor confirmation vote into a West Side Story musical number. He’ll nevertheless prevail against weak challenger Joe Kyrillos, whose only qualifications consist of the fact that his grandparents were Greek immigrants and that he once managed the revenue side of a hospital. Yeeeeoch. Hurricane Sandy will render this an even uglier defeat.
THE LINE: Menendez +20%
Kirsten Gillebrand (D) vs. Wendy Long (R)
Who says the Democratic Party doesn’t produce hot cougarish MILF(s)? I’d do Kirsten. Not much of a worthwhile endorsement, I know. Let’s try again. Gillebrand is a very accomplished attorney who boasts two important distinctions. First, she was the only member of the senate to tow the party line throughout Obama’s first term. Next, her fearless multi-media support proved invaluable to Obama’s agenda. She doesn’t get to lose. Opponent Wendy Long has absolutely nothing to offer. She’s a former congressional page….in other words, she knew how to suck a cock. Not good enough.
THE LINE: Gillebrand +40%
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs. Barry Hinkley (R)
I’ll admit it. I wasn’t happy to see Lincoln Chafee go. Liberal Republican and all-around likeable character suffered a defeat to Sheldon Whitehouse during the Democratic Tide of 2006, in spite of his promise to leave the Republican Party. The DNC eventually called in Big Dog Bill Clinton to pick up Whitehouse and carry him on his shoulders. In the end everyone got something out of it. Chafee was recently elected as Rhode Island’s Lieutenant Governor. Whitehouse enjoys high favorability ratings among the state’s citizens. Software entrepreneur Barry Hinkley has achieved likeability, but can’t make the polls move.
THE LINE: Whitehouse +25%
Ben Cardin (D) vs. Dan Bongino (R)
Republican prospects in this deep blue densely populated states appear to be nil. Cardin successfully defended this long-held democratic seat by fending off Michael Steele in 2006. Apparently, Baltimore and D.C. suburb voters found Steele to a bit loopy. Former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino….well…the polite way to say this. Hell with it, he’s a numbskulled cop who studied psychology and economics (in all likelihood with the aid of a ghostwriter. Sorry there, officer. Have to call it like I see it. Stay-at-home Dad Rob Sobhani will siphon away any blind-spite dipshit independent votes. The citizens of Baltimore, blessings be upon them, will not elect a brick-headed cop.
THE LINE: Cardin +26%
Tom Carper (D) vs. Kevin Wade (R)
Hey, ho! It’s Christine O’Donnell’s state. The voters of Delaware exhibit a North-South divide. No, I’m not kidding. The denizens of northern Delaware tend to be urban, educated, and democratic. Drive about three miles down the road and you’ll meet the voters of southern Delaware: rural, evangelical, and Republican. I’ve had the privilege of driving through Delaware before and am pleased to report that it was a very enjoyable 15 minutes. The first 11.5 minutes featured some fine riverside real estate. The remaining 2.5 minutes, which featured some nicely cleaved soybean crops and few rebel flags, were also a delight.
This proud “Son of the South” once held onto to the unimaginably quixotic hope that one day this country would overcome it’s Mason-Dixon line bullshit. One morning we would all wake to the realization that we are one country, albeit one with some regional variance. Some slight deviations aside, we’re all the same consumer-driven blowhards with similarly unattainable ambitions.
Of course that will never happen. We can’t even fucking accomplish some semblance of unity in Delaware for Christ’s sake. New Castle “undercover boss” Kevin Wade will win the support of the South….but that’s only 2.5 minutes.
THE LINE: Carper +26%
Angus King (I) vs. Charlie Summers (R) vs. Cynthia Dill (D)
To paraphrase The Dude himself, “Now that’s fucking interesting man. That’s fucking interesting.” Olympia Snowe is no more. She’ll spend her golden years attempting to convince her husband that she’s the most important person in a hyper-partisan household and that he should thus spend all of his precious time lobbying her to get in the kitchen and boil up some grits.
Oh yes…I’m prepared to be a dick about this woman. For the first two year’s of Obama’s term, any piece of legislation required extensive private meetings with Snowe and her Maine colleague Susan Collins. The entire legislative process ground to a halt while we dealt with two needy women. To her credit, she eventually allowed herself to be won over more times than not. Still, she had her undeserved moment in the national spotlight and has no business blaming “Hyper-partisanship” for her retirement. A ridiculous preponderance of “Me-Days” happens to be the real reason. Damn women and their “Me-Days”.
Anyway, Snowe’s decision to step down threw this race into chaos and we finally arrive the “That’s fucking interesting, man” content that you wrongly assumed I forgot about. After fiercely contested primaries, the Republicans brought forth battered-and-bruised Secretary of State Charlie Summers. State Senator and civil right’s lawyer Cynthia Dill also faced stiff competition, emerging from a congested primary with a somewhat battered reputation. Enter former governor Angus King, an independent expected to earn a solid victory.
King has kept tight-lipped about which party he will caucus with, but one has to assume the experienced reformer will caucus with the Dems. This prospect appears even more likely in the event of an Obama victory. So we get another independent….sort of.
THE LINE: King +17%
Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Heather Wilson (R)
Jeff Bingaman served the Land of Enchantment for five terms (to put that in perspective, since before I was but a fetus). Voters appear unlikely to cede his seat to anyone either that anointed heir Martin Heinrich. Former congresswoman Heather Wilson has the credentials, but the national party just isn’t pumping enough money in.
THE LINE: Heinrich +9%
Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Linda Lingle (R)
Former governor Linda Lingle stands little of a chance in what will be a huge year for President Obama in Hawaii. Anyone care to keep bringing up the Birth Certificate? Guess what, Birthers? You just cost you party a solid pick-up.
THE LINE: Hirono +20%
Category Three—DEEP PURPLE
Ben Nelson (D) vs. Connie Mack IV (R)
Sigh. Such myopic stupidity. The Republicans keep giving this seat away. Old-School Southern Democrat Bill Nelson appears more vulnerable every year. In 2006, however, the GOP fucked up royally by nominated Kathleen Harris. You may recall her as the Cruella Deville look-alike who made a supreme ass out of herself during the 2000 Florida recount. This time around they nominated fourth generation inbreed Connie Mack. Yes, Mary Bono’s beau. Tsk, tsk, tsk. Sure, there are plenty of old transplant Florida Jews who remember the Philadelphia A’s.
Actually…not really. Most of them are dead. The latest polls show Nelson gradually pulling away. Mack lost what he could have earned by expressing pride in his pampered upbringing. Idiot. The only reason this one finds itself in the “DEEP PURPLE” category concerns the caution one must exercise when projecting all things Florida.
THE LINE: Nelson +6%
Bob Casey (D) vs. Tom Smith (R)
In the battle of “names guys use to check into no-tell motels”, Casey maintains a slight edge. In allusion to the paragraphs above, the Dems know how to pick up a seat. In 2006 they ran a socially conservative challenger to steal this seat from Rick Santorum. Sweater-vest Rick couldn’t outbox Casey on the issues of abortion or contraception. The GOP shows every sign of having wised up, running coal-tycoon Tom Smith to recapture the seat. Keep an eye on this one, as it will run late.
THE LINE: Casey +1%
Jeff Flake (R) vs. Richard Carmona (D)
After the state-level immigration law and Jan Brewer’s finger pointing, the Dems want this one bad. They want it OH SO BAD. They've even nominated George W. Bush’s surgeon general to regain some presence in the state. Both sides came out with guns blazing after John Kyl announced his retirement. The GOP offered Flake, an outspoken House member who definitely tilts far to the right. The Dems countered with a moderate in the hopes of proving that they can earn a slice of the desert too. Polls have been all over the place, with the latest pitting Flake with a narrow advantage.
Left-leaners will likely have to grit their teeth and accept that Flake will soon be gasbagging on the floor of the U.S. Senate.
THE LINE: Flake +2%
Chris Murphy (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R)
She returns! The bitch is back. Don’t call her a slut or she’ll break your neck. Oh….yeah! Wife of wrestling baron Vince McMahon may have lost a humiliating Senate race to confirmed sociopath Richard Blumenthal after outspending him 3-1, but did she back down? NOOOO! She DOUBLED DOWN! Oh……yeah! Apologies to those American Football fans, who still feel cheated by the XFL, but this race will be razor thin.
Ideally, the Democrats will retain Joe Lieberman’s senate seat against another 3-1 spending blitz, but nothing’s for sure here. I’d like to see Linda McMahon lose not because I dislike her. I merely eagerly anticipate her third comeback. Oh…..yeah!
THE LINE: Murphy +3%
Richard Mourdock (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)
Have you been keeping count? Thus far we have TWO. Should Richard Mourdock win this seat, we’ll have THREE new Tea Party members serving in the most lethargic chamber in the world. Mourdock’s highly-publicized defeat of senior senator Richard Lugar in the primarily will either serve as a Tea Party rallying cry, or more mounting evidence that the FOX News pretend grass movement to feign outrage has produced nothing but negative blowback.
It would be nice to see Donnelly prevail. Once again, this is not because I dislike Republicans. Far from it. I dislike kids whining in the toy aisle. That’s your Tea Party. Waaaaaaaaahhh. “I want Cookie Crisp!”. “I want an action figure!”. “I want my country back”. “Waaaaaaaaaah”
Give it up, people. No one is taking your country. Moreover, NO! You can’t have another fucking toy!
THE LINE: Donnelly +2%
Scott Brown (R) vs. Elizabeth Warren (D)
Scott Brown has done everything he can to retain Kennedy’s seat. He won in a special election in what proved to be a catastrophic year for democrats. He’s voted in favor of the Obama Agenda no fewer than half a dozen times. He’s signed the release of all his nude photos. To be honest, I’m not entirely sure Brown and his truck deserve to be out of a job. Elizabeth Warren may be a liberal darling….but all I happen to see is an opportunistic professor. This bookie wants nothing to do with this contest. Pick your candidate.
THE LINE: Pick em’
Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)
Time to address the Elephant in the Room. Is it pronounced “Me-sor-ee” or “Mih-sor-ah”? Personally, I prefer “The sovereign state of ‘Misery’”, but that’s just me. In point of fact, the controversy surrounding how one pronounces the state’s name remains the only real issue in this campaign. Hard to believe? Don’t make me do this.
Look. Regardless of the indisputable reality that everyone and his/her mother agrees that Mr. Akin is mistaken about baby-makin’, most Missouri faith congregations have rallied around “Mr. Legitimate Rape”. A couple of months ago we thought he was toast. Nothing could be further from the truth. Consortium after consortium has come to Akin’s rescue. Why? Because there was once another man who everyone gave up on. There once existed a man who was betrayed by one of his best friends for thirty pieces of silver. This man was tossed out, turned over, and ultimately crucified.
Who was this man? You guessed it….Creed frontman Scott Stapp. Okay, maybe it was actually Jesus of Nazareth, but we’ll accord them both the same status. Both were overrated drunks who produced an inferior product.
One more shot at Scott Stapp before (mercifully) moving away from Missouri. He endorsed Mitt Romney on “Fox and Friends”. Here’s how he came to that conclusion:
“He cried out to God,
seeking only his decision,
Gabriel stood and confirmed,
that he was a useless hypocritical drunk who can’t even sing his own shitty music,
and that he should support Mitt Romney.”
McCaskill will retain her seat. Another example of Republicans failing to take advantage of a vulnerable incumbent. It will be close.
THE LINE: McCaskill +4%
Denny Rehberg (R) vs. John Tester (D)
Did you know that Montana has two Democratic senators? They may be fairly feckless characters, but John Tester and Max Baucus persist, voting slightly to the right of the democratic caucus. Sole House Representative Denny Rehberg will in all likelihood buck this anomalous trend; though the race remains too close to call.
THE LINE: Pick em’
Dean Heller (R) vs. Shelley Berkley (R)
After John Ensign resigned, this seat was ripe for a democratic picking. Unfortunately for them, House Representative Dean Heller did a marvelous job of bringing back the magic and former cocktail waitress/Nevada congresswomen Shelly Berkley seems to connecting with enough voters….to leave her short of victory.
THE LINE: Heller +4%
Rick Berg (R) vs. Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Time to recycle on of my old lines: You’re not high, North Dakota actually is in play. Maybe you’re still high, but that isn’t my problem. Former State Attorney general Heidi Heitkamp has a shot at knocking off Kent Conrad’s chosen successor. Polls have been unreliable, making this one pure guesswork.
THE LINE: Berg+4%
Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)
One-term senator Sherrod Brown possesses inclinations that might put off a center-right swing-state voter. Little puissant Treasurer Josh Mandel has still done a poor job of mounting a challenge and Ohio Dems will likely ride in on Obama’s coattails. Some polls show Brown pulling away, but a decisive call is beyond this bookie.
THE LINE: Brown +2%
Tim Kaine (D) vs. George Allen (R)
In easily the most fascinating race in the nation, George Allen returns to take back the seat he lost to Kim Webb in 2006. Former governor (not to mention DNC chairman) Tim Kaine has been tasked with defending the seat. There’s absolutely no point in attempting to handicap this race. No one knows how this one will swing….not even the all-knowing Xenu.
THE LINE: Pick em’
Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Tommy Thompson (R)
Herb Kohl will sit this one out. Former governor and Health & Human Secretary under G.W. Thommy Thompson would appear to be a shoe-in, but he’s a harsh primary has left him broke and scarred. Tammy has been struggling as well. We’ll end with a pick, gentlemen. No one can call a race that has switched leads no fewer than eight times.
THE LINE: Pick em’
113th United States Senate
54 Democrats (counting caucus)
(Democrats pick up one seat)
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS