It’s officially over Syndicate Members,
Not tomorrow’s election. That could still go either way.
Election season is over. Do I make myself clear? No more of this nonsense. It
ends now. I’ll elaborate after we take care of some technical business.
More than any other query, bettors have expressed grave
concern that the rules of this particular book remain unclear. Fine. I’ll take
some time to spell it out for you. Syndicate members usually receive something
akin to the following reminder at the onset of every book:
“A
QUICK REVIEW OF THE RULES:
Deutschland
vs. Italy
The
Line: Deutschland +3 Goals
The
Favorite is favored to win by 3 goals. If you bet on Italy, there are three
ways you can win the bet:
1)
Italy loses by less than 3 goals.
2)
Match is a draw
3)
Italy wins
Conversely,
there are two ways to win if you bet on Germany
1)
Germany wins by three goals (This is somewhat different. Some would say if the
line is met exactly, the wager should be nullified. IMPORTANT: in this system A
PRECISE LINE constitutes a win!)
2)
Germany wins by more than three goals.”
For the past six years, the syndicate has operated on the
premise that a PRECISE LINE constitutes a WIN. To be fair, for the first four
years of our little experiment, a precise line meant it was a draw and no money
changed hands. The reason I chose not to enclose an instructional equivalent
for this book concerns the fact that we will, in all likelihood, NEVER
encounter a precise line. In this instance, ALL of the decimal points count. The
completion of wagers depends on the final certified total. Let’s do an example:
Virginia
THE LINE: Romney +1.2%
The
Favorite is favored to win by 1.2 percentage points. If you bet on Romney,
there’s ONE way you can win the bet:
1)
Romney wins by 1.21 percentage points or higher (NO ROUNDING UP HERE)
Conversely, there are TWO ways to win if
you bet on Obama
1)
Romney wins by less than 1.20 percentage points (AGAIN, NO ROUNDING UP)
2)
Obama wins Virginia.
We won’t have to deal with a precise line.
1.20001 = Romney Victory
1.19999 = Obama Victory
Are we clear? Good. Returning to my election eve message
to all of you: It’s over. This whole damn charade is over. Nothing left for us
to do but plan for the big election eve bash and enjoy each other’s company.
Tomorrow, the country will decide which moderate leader will be hamstrung by a
stagnate congress over the next four years. It doesn’t matter who wins. No
matter what happens, it’ll still be the same country and we all have to get up
and go to work the next day. Our political process makes for an easy target.
Easy enough to laugh at what an inane and bromidic travesty the whole thing is,
but it’s all we’ve got. Might as well sit back and enjoy the spectacle with
your friends.
Here’s how your election night should look: Get together
with mates that lean red, mates that lean blue, and mates that believe a
Libertarian Angel will descend from the heavens and sprinkle magic gold pixie
dust on the international monetary system. Get a few TVs running and keep those
laptops open. Have a drink and riff with your pals about the county-by-county
results. Share some laughs and swap a bit of anecdotal political knowledge.
Have fun. Election season is over.
I goddamn well mean what I say. Allow me to reiterate:
Election season is OVER!! You’re allowed to pick sides. What I won’t tolerate
is any whining or crying from those of you disappointed that your moderate
didn’t win. Got that? No matter what happens tomorrow, if I catch any one of
you motherfuckers pretending as if it’s the end of the world because your
candidate lost, I’ll call you out like the sniffling babies you are. Man up and
accept tomorrow’s results, whatever they may be. Vicey decrees it. I’m not
presiding over a bunch of unruly children. This is the syndicate. We may be
children. We may occasionally even be unruly. We’re sure as hell not babies.
Enjoy your Electoral College lines. Musings are attached
to non-competitive states. Swing states are primarily based on the
numbers.
Category
One—DEEP RED
Alright. Who’s up for a whirlwind tour of the South? Don’t
worry….it won’t take long. There really isn’t a hell of lot to do down here. We
could go the church, or we can get drunk. Perhaps we’ll kill two birds with one
stone. Nothing like inebriated church-goin’. Jesus Juice helps one believe.
After we’re done with the Deep South, we’ll head north to visit some bona fide
hillbillies. Then we’ll take a westward turn and peruse some crops in the
heartland. Finally, we’ll head even further north through no man’s land, all
the way up to State that Democrats once insisted be admitted into the Union to
counterbalance the Republican tendencies of Hawaii. We’ll chill in Alaska…and
see if we can’t catch a glimpse of Russia.
Off we go…..
Louisiana
Absolutely must get this one out of the way first. Welcome
to what increasingly looks to be reddest state in the nation….not to mention my
eternal home. As most everyone knows, I’m a tried and true Cajun-fried “Lusiana
Boy”, as much or more so than anyone else. I may have been born in Germany. My
first language may have been German. Nevertheless, my parents toted me over to
Sportsman’s Paradise before I was old enough to know what the syntactical fuck
a “first language” was. They may have taken me back to Europe to live on a few
occasions. I may have voluntarily sojourned over there on a few other
occasions. Look….we’re getting off tangent. The point is as follows:
I’m a goddamned Southern Boy and anyone who has anything to
say to the contrary will promptly lose every last one of their teeth. I grew up
in Baton Rouge, advancing through all levels of the public school system. I
learned how to spell “Geaux Tigers” before I mastered “Wednesday”. A large
chunk of my childhood was devoted to watching the Texas Rangers and Houston
Astros on Woody Jenkins’s Channel 19…..W-BTR….make your day a wonderful day. I
caught my first pair of beads at the age of three. I was shouting “SHOW YOUR
TITS!” by the age of six. I drank my first beer at the age of eleven.
Southern-reared transplants all too often bitch that they
felt like some sort of intellectual “diamond in the rough”. To hell with those
delusional and narcissistic fucktards. You’ll never hear that from me. I felt
quite at home and still do. Regardless, we must address that there exists a
certain problem with being of Southern heritage. Namely, the inferiority
complex of many Southerners hinders the ability to remain in contact.
I’ll expand on this. Louisiana has gone deep red and I won’t
live to see even the slightest reversal of this trend. What explanation lurks
behind this development? After all, my peeps are by no means dumb,
ill-informed, or incapable of reasoning. Trouble is, they incorrectly
conjecture that others view them as such. It may appear as if I’m making excuses
with all the flair of a skilled apologist, but just hear me out.
Nearly every one of my old mates has gone hardcore red,
irrespective of what side of the spectrum they previously occupied. Moreover,
they often convey to me, in even uglier language, that they consider me an
“elitist and condescending snob”. Sad, but true. A man of equal or (most
likely) lesser intelligence sits before them, but the inferiority complex
cannot be overcome. Here we witness the primary reason why the South will
remain Red for the rest of our natural lives, gentlemen. It all comes down to
the “you think you’re better than me?” mentality. Well…that and FOX News.
Impossible to avoid it in the South. Whether you’re getting your oil changed,
scarfing down all-you-eat-pizza, or simply trying to shoot some pool…there’s
dickless Hannity on screen. Doing his utmost to compensate for his lack of a
penis. Nice makeup, girlie.
So that’s about it with respect to my beloved home. Deeper
shades of Red await…and I don’t really care. It remains home. Eons ago I once
had a girlfriend who urged me to enter Louisiana Politics. The Pitch went
something like this:
“You’ll be the handsome and eloquent politician with the
foreign roots. I’ll be the loyal and supportive Southern Belle who legitimizes
you and works with local charities. We’ll exude irresistible charm. Together we
won’t be beat. Can’t you just picture the photos?”
Paraphrasing of course. Ack. I sternly request that all
syndicate members continue to respect our doctrine of privacy dignity. Even if
you have some inkling of who this is, forget it immediately. No names are
mentioned here. Only mine.
Ahh..to be twenty-years-old again. To be filled with
completely idiotic ideas and to even enthusiastically agree with them. I
suppose all I wish to add is that I genuinely like growing older, and look
forward to doing so with ALL of my Louisiana friends.
THE
LINE: Romney +30%
Mississippi
Now that I’m done licking the South’s asshole, fuck this
state. My ire doesn’t even remotely relate to the State’s political
inclinations. It’s merely time to register my firm opposition to “cheesy
grits”. One doesn’t put cheese in the grits. South Carolina may be a ways down
the list, but one doesn’t put shrimp in the grits wither. Only one way to eat grits:
a single slice of butter approximately two centimeters wide. End of discussion.
THE
LINE: Romney +22%
Alabama
The stars may have fallen on Alabama, but so did the
inferiority complex. Inconceivable that we were relatively recently talking
about Romney’s inability to compete here. Did anyone actually think they would
vote for the black guy?
THE
LINE: Romney +26%
Arkansas
The Clintons have long since left for greener pastures and
we’ve now got ourselves a “Huckabee State”. In all actuality, there’s not much
of a difference between Clinton and Huckabee. Sure one was more socially
liberal than the other, but both were exceptionally gifted public speakers who
also happened to be extremely bad musicians. Both also publicly struggled with
their weight. It’s the “Ar-Kansan” Way.
THE
LINE: Romney +25%
Oklahoma
You may have scaled the fjords of Scandinavia, China’s Great
Wall, and Rio’s awe-inspiring statue. I’ll accept the fact that you’ve sailed
the Lake of Zurich, Hang-glided above Milan, been to the top of the Empire
State Building, The Eiffel Tower, The St. Louis Arch, the Space Needle, The
Burj Dubai and the Petronas Towers. You may have conquered Lagos, Moscow,
Delhi, Perth, Istanbul, Rome, London, Budapest, and Madrid. I’ve but one
remaining question. Have you been to the “National Shrine of the Infant Baby
Jesus” in Prague, Oklahoma?
I thought so. Not impressed.
THE
LINE: Romney +30%
Texas
Why do we insist that we must “keep Austin weird”? That
would be because the rest of the State follows protocol.
THE
LINE: Romney +19%
Tennessee
So many incredibly boisterous urban areas in this state.
Love me some Chattanooga, Memphis, Knoxville, Nashville, and Chickamauga
National Park. Don’t know much about the outlying areas, except for the fact that
they vote.
Walking in Memphis…..thanks to that song, I can’t stroll
down Beele anymore. How disappointing.
THE
LINE: Romney +27%
Kentucky
Bluegrass and Big Tobacco. An avid fan of both types these
words. Thanks to the cats of Louisville for all the fun they’ve showed me.
THE
LINE: Romney +22%
West
Virginia
Wild and wonderful, who can refuse the state of Black Lung
disease? Met the only helpful Cop I ever met (and likely ever will meet) in
this state. Keep burning the furniture, brothers.
THE LINE:
Romney + 25%
Kansas
No Democrat will ever contest Kansas. Even Jimmy Carter
couldn’t win Kansas. Them Prairie Folks don’t take kindly to them peoples who
live outside of Wichita.
THE
LINE: Romney +25%
Nebraska
Along with Maine, Nebraska is one of two states that split
their electoral votes. Neither one of them matter in this election. The
Cornhuskers are solid Red while the Pine Tree State bleeds solid Blue. Nice job
trying to reform the process.
THE
LINE: Romney +16%
Utah
It’s Mormon in America. Even the black Mormons will back
Romney in the Beehive State.
THE
LINE: Romney +37%
Wyoming
All 18,000 Democrats are welcome to vote. It won’t matter.
Not even slightly.
THE
LINE: Romney +33%
Idaho
Grade school humor up next: Is it “I-da-ho” or “U-da-ho” A
fahahahahahah. Puerile nonsense. You love Pepsi Products? Then why don’t you
marry them? Afahahahahahah.
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a few times short of
infinity. Growing older is awesome. Believe me.
THE
LINE: Romney +38%
Alaska
This state is all set to do “several Maverick things”. As I
briefly mentioned in the introduction, Alaska was once a Democratic Stronghold.
Hawaii was the reverse. Things do change. Symmetry and Talleyrand dictate,
however, that they must also stay the same.
THE
LINE: Romney +29%
North
Dakota
Bismarck or Pierre? Always confusing my Dakota capitals.
North Dakota continues to exhibit a slightly more conservative bent than South
Dakota. This bookie determines that the bent equals roughly two percentage
points.
THE
LINE: Romney +21%
South
Dakota
See above. Yes, your friendly bookie is pressed for time and
looking to cut a few corners. Can’t think of anything interesting to say about
South Dakota. No…wait a minute. Once upon a time I met a girl from South Dakota.
She was a hotter piece of eye candy than some ground-up “Fierce-Cinnamon” Hot
tamales applied directly to the cornea. Yeah…that’s all I’ve got. Truly sorry.
Rest in Peace, George McGovern.
THE
LINE: Romney +19%
Montana
They all say it’s going to be close. “They” all don’t know
what the fuck they’re talking about.
THE
LINE: Romney +11%
Missouri
John McCain may have barely eked out a 0.1% victory here in
2008. The Show-Me-State may have disproportionately benefited from the
infrastructure money dispensed in the stimulus package. Todd Akin may be
mistaken about baby makin. Nothing will prevent this state from an inexorable
slide into deep red. It’s a conservative territory; a wannabe confederate
state. Kansas City, St. Louis, and a handful of sleepy university towns will
persist as hazel blue islands in a sea of bible-thumping malcontents.
The GOP obtains a generous flip here and in other realms
where outrage over the anemic pace of the recovery has hit too close to home.
My projections (which you’ve surely already skipped to the end to read) give
Obama a 279-267 victory. By comparison, he walloped McCain 365-173. The Dems
will most certainly lose Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Iowa. They
might even forfeit Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
Zero chance Obama competes in this backwater. People here don’t even need a
reason to be pissed off and surly…they just are by default.
THE
LINE: Romney +14%
Indiana
The Hoosiers are right fucking pissed. Mitch Daniels may not
have been as successful as Scott Walker in beating back unions, but he’s proved
popular enough with the Crossroads populace to nearly get drafted for a
presidential run. Obama carried the state by just over a percentage point in
2008. Romney, courtesy of Daniels, gains an easy pickup.
THE
LINE: Romney +10%
South
Carolina
Polls show Obama narrowing Romney’s lead in the Palmetto
State. I’m kidding of course. No one even bothers to pay the increasingly hefty
prices for professional polling in South Carolina. That would involve sending
at least some ground canvassers to this wretched assembly of backcountry
boondocks. The state only has two metropolitan municipalities, both of which
will vote red. The University town of Columbia (pop approx 130,000) also houses
the capital and every last conservative mind associated with it. Historic
Charlestown (also pop approx 130,000) has in large part already voted. All the
affluent southern gentlemen have left the harbor and are know sipping martinis
on their yachts. It’s over here.
THE
LINE: Romney +22%
Georgia
Speaking of Southern states with only two significant
metropolitan areas, one wholly artificial and the other a historic haven for
the inbred generational rich. Much like in Charleston, all the fine Southern
gentlemen of Savannah have already voted and are now relaxing on the porch
smoking stogies and sipping Mint Juleps. Lucky bastards…
Much like Columbia, Atlanta doesn’t technically qualify as a
“city”. Yeah, you heard me. Until someone invites me to “Freaknik”, your city
SUCKS! I can’t think of a more boring place to visit. Okay…maybe Houston just
barely beats you. In any event FUCK your “city.” First it was a railway
terminus. Later it was an airport. Now it’s a sprawling collection of strip
malls connected by 11,234 streets all inexplicably named “Peachtree Way”. It
provides the backdrop for shitty Tom Wolfe novels, horrendously bad movies
about homeboy roller-skaters, and embarrassingly pathetic rap songs about the
“playas” who “own” the strip malls.
The only positive aspect of Atlanta, the city that all of us
who travel extensively by air are forced to visit no fewer than a dozen times a
year, would be the smoking lounge in four of the airports five terminals.
Appreciate that if nothing else.
THE
LINE: Romney +18%
Arizona
Some polls show this contest as competitive, but I a’int
buying it. A rising Hispanic population and the surprisingly sympathetic bent
of the vast amounts of Phoenix suburban homeowners who hire them to mow the
lawn means we’ll live to see the state to go pink…perhaps even a light shade of
salmon or fuchsia.
The current shift necessitates that we must consider Arizona
“in play” for all subsequent elections. Keep that in mind. Four years from now
some Arnold-Palmer slurping yuppie will make a half-assed attempt to
demonstrate intellect by tossing out the following comment over an exorbitantly
expensive lunch of organic Arugula and Limburger:
“You know, the Democrats might carry Arizona this year.”
Don’t you believe him? Nothing against Arnold-Palmer
slurping yuppies. In fact, once I’m finished with this section I think I’ll
saunter on over to the neighborhood bodega and grab me on of those Arizona Tea
Arnold Palmers. Mmmmm. Maybe even one of those Jack Niklaus “Golden Bear” honey
tea with ginseng concoctions. So refreshing. They also do some fantastic Mango,
Watermelon, and Peach varieties sure to slake your thirst. Ahhh..I can taste it
now. Mmmm. Today, I do believe I’ll channel my inner black dude and guzzle down
the grape-flavored one. There we go. A cold purple beverage for me this
evening. That’s how we’ll roll dawg.
Anyway, obeying my snoop-dogg-inspired thirst will have to
wait a bit. I was meant to be telling you something before I went off the rails
and wrote 100 plus words of free advertising copy for Arizona Iced Tea. Oh
right. Arizona will never go blue. Outside of Phoenix and Tucson, the whole
state more or less resembles Sheriff Joe’s Maricopa Country.
That disgusting warthog should consider himself lucky that
I’m thirsty. Otherwise I’d unleash a tirade of epic proportions, detailing
precisely why that filthy pig should be anally raped and skinned alive. Next
time, piggy. Go sniff me out some truffles, swine.
THE
LINE: Romney +9%
Category
Two—DEEP BLUE
Time to gaze upon the oceans. We’ll go from sea to shining
sea, stopping over briefly in some folksy NPR-hamlets to listen to the
soft-spoken yarns a Garrison Keillor. Time permitting; we’ll touch down in
Chi-Town to gorge ourselves on some of the most artery-clogging food-like
substances you’ve ever seen. If I hear one more pundit take James Carville’s
quote about Pennsylvania and deliver a smirking, I’m-so-clever “We can
extrapolate this model to the entire country” observation, I’m going to jump
through the television screen and strangle these worthless talking heads with a
lamp chord. Yeah, we get it. The electoral map of the country looks like a
triple-stuffed Oreo. Blah, blah, blah. Blue coasts. Red heartland. How about
you fucking choke on a triple-stuffed Oreo?
Hawaii
It’s all Obama, all along the Archipelago. Up and down all
the eight major islands it’s solid blue. The democratic ticket prevails on the
nine lesser-known islands. Even the hundreds of uninhabited islands are
littered with Obama/Biden campaign placards. Even the volcanic groundswell in
the northeast corner of the Hawaiian Hot-Spot, not expected to surface for
another 8,000 years, is home to a bevy of vent-hugging single-celled
organisms…all of whom are supporting Obama.
THE
LINE: Obama +30%
California
Yes…it’s time to bring up the Coastal microcosm again. Blah,
blah, blah. The further one gets away from the Pacific Ocean, the more rural
and red the….dammit. Why must voting blocs always be so formulaic and
predictable? George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win California. His
son was the last to contest it. The state will remain solid blue for the
duration of all our lives.
THE
LINE: Obama +17%
Washington
The Dems dominate Seattle and its wayward cousin
“Portlandia” down in Oregon. Historically, these regions have always been the
most progressive in the country. They were once solid Republican, back when the
GOP was actually a progressive party. Both cities will continue to mutate into
comically absurd neo-hippie areas for some time to come.
THE
LINE: Obama +14%
Oregon
Picking up where we left off, Portlandia should prove enough
to cancel out the more split or even right-leaning bergs of Eugene, Salem,
Gresham, and Hillsboro. The Pacific Blue Sweep shall be preserved, but the
final tally in Oregon will be closer than most would casually assume.
THE
LINE: Obama +5%
Illinois
The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Illinois?
George H.W. in ’88. He was also the last to contest it. The Land of Lincoln
votes almost exclusively Blue. We’re not talking merely the behemoth of Chicago
(Note to all of those using the “Obama’s Chicago Style Politics” Talking Point:
As usual, you have no idea what you’re talking about. Kindly shut the fuck up.)
Other liberal areas include East St. Louis, Springfield, Peoria, and
Champagne-Urbana. Even the Prairie Counties look to be a push. Contrary to
national trends, Illinois retains agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
We all know what that means: John Mellencamp is coming to
down and he has a special song just for you.
“Working in a factory,
Out on the edge of town,
Got my union card,
Crickets make a nice sound”
“This is ooour country”
THE
LINE: Obama +19%
New York
New York hasn’t gone red since Reagan carried it in 1984.
Pedantic analysis might lead one to falsely conclude that the GOP still
maintains a presence in upstate New York. That’s actually a stale assessment
that hasn’t been applicable for over fifteen years. Upstate New York has mostly
gone light blue, cerulean, or even sapphire. Obama wins big here.
THE
LINE: Obama +28%
Vermont
It doesn’t get much more liberal than this idyllic
countryside haven. Hell, even the state Republican caucus produces literature
that looks as if it came out of an Identity Politics Seminar. The first state
to legalize gay marriage, these people may even be blue enough to give Santorum
precisely what he wants. Man on dog can’t be far behind.
THE
LINE: Obama +30%
Massachusetts
Forget it, Republicans. This one’s for Boston. For Boston,
for Boston! Reagan may have carried Massachusetts in 1984, but it was by the
narrowest of flukiest of margins. The Codfishers voted for McGovern in 1974 for
fuck’s sake. You’ll never see this state go red. EVER. Romney has become fond
of citing how he fearlessly “worked in a bipartisan manner with the state
legislature to get things done”…as if he had a choice. Of course that was a
very different Romney: Pro-Choice, Pro-universal health care, pro-government
subsidies, pro-trade, and less than zealous about firearms. In other words, THAT’S
the Romney we can expect as president. Sorry to shit on your dreams, FOX News
enthusiasts. He’s a Massachusetts moderate. You’ve done a great service to the
New England brand of politics.
Let’s go Murphys!
THE
LINE: Obama +22%
Rhode
Island
The nearly 500,000 registered voters of Rhode Island have
spoken! Impossible to fuck up a poll in this state. Screw finding a
representative sample. Just go ahead and call everyone while you’re at it.
THE
LINE: Obama +23%
Delaware
No way the Blue Hens disappoint Grandpa Joe. Amtrak could
dress him up in ladies lingerie and have him dance seductively a remix to the
Quad City DJ’s “C’mon Ride that Train” and the voters of Delaware would still
fawn all over him. Hmmm….come to think of it, that’s probably the best idea
this burnt-out writer has come up with all night. Someone get on that. I’d like
to see that.
Well, judging by the ever-diminishing quality of my prose,
you’re correct to deduce that it’s probably time to take a break. Let’s get off
politics for a second and delve into a “musical interlude”. I’ve made modest
progress on the promised piece “500 Shades of Euro-Trash”; a celebration of all
the stunningly god-awful music to attain popularity over the past two decades.
Essentially a re-tooling of the list we began compiling this summer, I hope to
have it finished towards the end of the year.
Before we go pissing on Europe for its astonishingly bad
musical taste, I wish to submit the Quad City DJ’s as evidence that America too
can occasionally stray far from the confines of meritorious Pop Music.
Honestly, what the hell were we thinking? The mid-90s proved to be a terrible
time for lyricist. It was around this time that the flannel-clad grunge band
“The Presidents of the United States of America” discovered that “can” rhymes
with “man” and phoned in a little diddy about moving to the country in order to
ingest copious amounts of peaches.
Did we accept it? Damn right we did. We sung along to a tune
composed by a recording studio full of talentless hacks who essentially went,
“Fuck it. I’m out of ideas. Can’t we write a song about this Chinese takeout
we’re eating? No? That would be an obvious cop-out. How about the fruit sitting
on our manager’s desk? Can we write a song about that? Sure, why not? We’ll call
it “Peaches”.
Likewise, I can’t imagine the session during which the Quad
City DJs cranked out “C’mon Ride that Train” was a brainstorming session
featuring a lot of horsepower. “Okay guys. We’ve got the hook. ‘C’mon Ride that
Train’. Now we’ve got to dress it up a bit. Ideas anyone? How about if we add
‘..and ride it’ right after the hook. Sound good to everyone? We still need
something else. I’ve got it. How about if we had a line about how “It’s a
Choo-choo train”. Great. That’s lunch everyone. C’mon ride that train…and ride
it. It’s a Choo-choo train. We’re geniuses.”
Whew. I needed that. Back to this boring-ass election.
THE
LINE: Obama +26%
Maryland
Terrific responses thus far to my anti-cop rants. I’ll
publish the best ones in the coming mailbag section. For now, suffice to say
that this line generated some sparks:
“The citizens of Baltimore, blessings be upon them, will
not elect a cop”.
You’ve got to keep the Romney, waaaay down in the hole.
THE
LINE: Obama +21%
District
of Columbia
I’m deathly serious about the line below. Check her out.
Obama captures D.C.’s three electoral votes by EIGHTY-TWO PERCENT. Try your
luck if you think I’m bluffing.
THE
LINE: Obama +82%
Connecticut
Connecticut may essentially be considered
“Massachusetts-Lite”. Wave after wave of working class European immigrants
settled in the Eastern Seaboard, got on board with FDR, and remained with the
party through de-alignment.
THE
LINE: Obama +12%
Maine
A sweep of statewide elections in 2010 left the GOP with
some hope that they might finally be able to flip Maine back to their. After
all, it’s where ex-prez George H.W. lives and has a reputation for quirky
independence. The latest polls suggest the prospects for turnover hover just
above nil. Quinnipiac has Obama pulling away.
THE
LINE: Obama +13%
New
Jersey
The Garden State was lost far before Hurricane Sandy made
landfall. Now you’ve got Obama and Chris Christie acting like regular old
chums. Note your friendly bookie has Obama over performing here. My line is a
full three percentage points above the latest data from the Philadelphia
Inquirer.
THE
LINE: Obama +13%
New
Mexico
In 2000, the Land of Enchantment stood as a lonely blue isle
amid a central sea of red. In 2004 it flipped back to George W. Bush. In the
intervening years, the growth of Albuquerque appears to have solidified the
state as straight blue for years to come.
THE
LINE: Obama +9%
Minnesota
But what about Michelle Bachman and Jesse “The Body”
Ventura? Meh. The “Hot off the Press” Weekend polling shows Obama padding his
lead. Minnesota’s innovative late-registration laws require that the bookie
sets a cautious line, but a victory for Romney here would be nothing short of
miraculous.
THE
LINE: Obama +7%
Category
Three—DEEP PURPLE
Finally we arrive at the only states that matter. Finding a
website that will enable you to calculate “Path to 271” Permutations will take
all of 3.8 seconds. Hence, I won’t link to them. The permutations make for
splendid procrastination and should play a significant role in your election
eve party. I reiterate, just have fun.
Nevada
Who’s up for some decimals? Not me. Not just yet. Spates of
polls give Obama the slight edge here. This bookie finds that edge far too
razor thin. Furthermore, most of the polling companies contracted to work here
are of circumspect reputations. Liberal optimists may wish to hop on this
special. Dozens of firms project a tight Obama win, but I’m calling it a
toss-up.
THE
LINE: Pick em’
Colorado
The lead in this state has changed no fewer than four times
over the past six weeks. To utilize a cliché, one can’t make heads or tails of
it. Gallup and Rasmussen are split, each giving one candidate a wholly
insignificant lead under one percent. Might as well flip a coin as a 0.2
percent lead only makes one think “margin of error”.
THE
LINE: Pick em’
Iowa
Democratic pollsters have Obama leading by as much as three.
GOP commissioned firms have Romney up by one. The Des Moines Register has Obama
up by four, but their sample size appears too small. Ahem. I now declare myself
ready for decimals.
THE
LINE: Obama +0.6%
Wisconsin
Every agency other than Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead.
Libs may cry foul, but I consider Rasmussen to be a legitimate organization in
spite of any perceived bias. Credence shall be lent.
THE
LINE: Obama +2.8%
Michigan
Wasn’t bailing out the Auto Industry good enough? Not
according to Democratic pollsters, who cannot manage to demonstrate a
consistent lead for their candidate. We’ll be burning the midnight oil watching
this one.
THE
LINE: Obama +1.7%
Ohio
Is anyone else tired of hearing about Ohio? The State that
decided the 2004 Presidential election now obstinately refuses to shut the fuck
up. For much of the past three months, Obama has maintained a solid 5-6 point
lead, barely outside of the margin error. Weekend polling, however, has Romney
nipping at his heels.
THE
LINE: Obama +2.5%
Pennsylvania
We’ve dispatched virtually every company out there to
research this state. Potential sampling errors dictate that it must remain a
toss-up. It remains worth noting that Obama leads in EVERY poll. Margin of
error be damned, I’ll go out on a limb and predict a safe victory.
THE
LINE: Obama +3.7%
New
Hampshire
Oh do these first-in-the-nation primary voters love their
politics. They’ve grown so accustomed to politicians approaching on bended
knee, prepared to promise all sorts of unrealistic favors before they even get
a chance to perform fellatio. They want to keep us guessing. They might as well
keep us guessing. Not wasting my time divining their intent.
THE
LINE: Pick em’
Virginia
Talk about a battleground contest. The lead has flipped
seven times in six weeks. The latest polls have Obama ahead by a whopping
0.15%. How the analytical fuck am I supposed to set a line on that? I can’t.
Instead, I’ll wager on Romney’s stewardship of the lead for most of the past
three weeks.
THE
LINE: Romney +1.2%
North
Carolina
When Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, the democrats
made truly historic inroads. For the first time sine the Civil Rights Act,
Democrats captured a portion of the South in a year when Ross Perot wasn’t
running. Time for an anecdote. I was having a blast at a great election party
out in Monterrey California. Pacific Time read 7:44 P.M, or sixteen minutes
before the California Polls closed. When FOX News projected Obama the winner in
North Carolina, the election was officially over. California would drop in
sixteen minutes, and North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes put Obama above 270.
Within that practically quarter of an hour span, I managed to make over 30
phone calls, send over 40 texts, and alert everyone at the party that the
election was over. To this day, it remains the most memorable sixteen minutes
of my life.
A few years later I would learn that I wasn’t the only one
who saw the North Carolina projection as a historic moment. These were surely
the most memorable sixteen minutes of then candidate Obama’s life. It was such
that he personally insisted that the Democratic National Convention be held in
Charlotte. The Dems have indeed pulled out all the stops to lobby for this
state to remain in their column. It won’t. Statistically speaking we’ve got a
dead heat, but Obama hasn’t led here since early September.
THE
LINE: Romney +4.6%
Florida
Ugh. We’ve got a mess on our hands….again. The polls have
been all over the place. The partisan polls aren’t showing their candidates
ahead. The paragon polls aren’t showing us much of anything. It took me over an
hour to study over 60 polls conducted over the past six months to come up with
this line. Romney has the momentum. Shit. I could have gotten drunk and come up
with that concluding sentence. “Romney has the momentum”. Perhaps it’s time for
that beer.
THE
LINE: Romney +1.9%
FINAL
PROJECTION:
Obama
283
Romney
263
(Obama
wins re-election…..barely.)
GENTLEMEN,
ENTER YOUR WAGERS
