Thursday, May 24, 2018

WM 2018--Syndicate: OSINT

Servus Syndicate Brethren,

WM 2018Relax. Suspend. Accept. Surrender.

Postpone the “Weary World Worrying”. Resign your position as “The Great Universal Geo-political Manager”. Inactivate the outrage and indignation. Yield to the merriment and frivolity of the mellifluous days ahead.

One cannot deny that there’s much wrong with the world today and one might even proffer a robust argument that everything sucks precisely because most of the population gravitates towards silly distractions like this tournament. Na und?

“No one’s paying enough attention to the real problems,” say the people who tend to have difficulty managing their own. “We want to talk about the REAL issues,” moan the irritating chatterboxes who manufacture wholly unimportant issues for a living. “What about the terrible political consequences of FIFA’s current corrupt regime?” add people…well….people like my contrarian self on a bad day, but I’m willing to put that issue on the backburner for now.

Sadly, the Science of Proving Misery isn’t one of the more useful disciplines. Moreover, it’s a pretty damn lazy science. At the end of the day, the only thing that even the most elegantly constructed proof ends up being is you yourself. Your friendly bookie remains an unabashed Geo-Politics Junkie who excels at identifying disconcerting trends, but even he knows when to shut the hell up and enjoy a good show. There’s a time and a place for everything.

From CC 2017—Syndicate Barbarossa  

This friendly bookie and his old mates rejoice in the “Great Global Unifier”, trading barbs, bets, and riffs. It’s a chance for us all to relax, unwind, and decompress with “Friends & Football”. We all have ourselves a bit of irreverent fun over the course of a traditionally “silly season”. Over the course of sixteen long years, the pleasant distraction of a Summer International Football Tournament has never failed to raise or spirits and reinvigorate our intellectual instincts.

Image result for the economist putinism….
….

Er…can Russia really assist us with this?

What a difference a year makes. Last Summer’s colorful coverage of Euro 2016 is now but a distant memory. As we attempt to convene to celebrate how colorful the World can be, the day-to-day realities of international news seem to indicate that the World is falling apart. The demise of international institutions. The hostile takeover of governments and information. The exponential growth and spread of violent religious extremist terrorism. It’s pretty damn dark out there.

Everyone had their own way of dealing with the “new normal”. Your friendly bookie skims through the news he once cannibalized in order to get to the “Charlemagne Column” in the Economist. The plethora of ignorance out there leaves him desperately yearning to read about concepts like “Gesinnungsethik” and “Schuldesnpolitik”. Syndicate Members report a similar desire to retreat from the shallow headlines and bury themselves in abstract esoteric concepts. Oh how tempting it can be to pack up crates of interesting books and resolve to go live under a tree for a few years without speaking to anyone.

….but we can’t do very well do that, can we?

As bleak as things look, there’s no sense in denying oneself a break from all the misery. Football will continue to give us something to cheer, laugh, and talk about irrespective of whatever nonsense the New Global Order throws at us.

To hell with the “New Global Order”! For that matter, what’s the mis-prioritizing fuck is a bleeding bartender doing ruminating over the “New Global Order”? Christ I embarrass myself at times. Though it’s a great pleasure and privilege to inform yourself and learn about the world, one simply has to take a step back from all of the über-wonk analysis and ask if the big picture even makes basic logical sense.

Image result for the economist the german problem issue vs. Image result for the economist the german problem issue

Riiight. Sure thing, guys. You let me know when you figure that out. In the meantime, we’ve got football to watch.

Simply stated, the FIFA World Cup is the “Greatest Fucking Show on Earth”. Nothing else comes close to unifying the planet than this quadrennial Festival celebrating the beautiful game that nearly every human being on the planet has played at some time. To miss out on it become of some snobbish pretensions concerning the sport, the host country, or your current socio-economic status would be a downright criminal waste of the one precious life you’ve been given.

The Russians and the world are about to put on one helluva show. Everyone has a right to enjoy a good show. Whether it’s Mankind’s Greatest tournament or some cheeseball Royal Wedding, it’s okay to enjoy yourselves, people! History will be made. Ensure your part in it. Watch with your old friends and make some new ones. It’s perfectly permissible for us to get together and have some fun.

Image result for hipster fedora 
Don’t succumb to the shun like some piece of Hipster Scum. That fedora-sporting metrosexual guy who’s too cool for football? Fuck that guy! Let him go ponder what Kierkegaard has to say about the fact that “Vice Media” rejected his Audition Tapes. Send him vintage clothes shopping and take his girlfriend home while you’re at it. No such thing as being “too cool for football”!

Let’s review the rules. In the coming days, I’ll release the “Onset Betting Odds” for all 32 teams in eight separate “Group Preview Sections”. Taking an old example from WM 2014, here’s how they work

Vicey’s Fearless Group Prediction (4 to 1 Odds for bookie)

1) Germany  
2) Portugal 
3) Ghana 
4) USA 

Here we have a “Group Prediction”, identical to the ones that will drop in the coming days. You can only bet AGAINST the bookie in this instance. If the Group finishes exactly as the bookie has predicted, you owe him three times your wager. Should it finish in any other permutation, he owes you your base wager. For example, should you bet $10 against, the bookie will owe you $10 UNLESS the four teams finish PRECISELY as he predicted. Should they finish precisely as he predicted, you owe him $40.

Onwards to the next example.

Overall Championship Odds

 Germany (Straight Up)
 Portugal (Straight Up)
 USA (8 to 1)
 Ghana (10 to 1)

Should you bet $10 on Germany winning (and they do) …you’re entitled to $10.
Should you bet $10 on the Portugal winning (and they do) …you’re entitled to $10.
Should you bet $10 on the USA winning (and they do) …you’re entitled to $80.
Should you bet $10 on the Ghana winning (and they do) …you’re entitled to $100.

Should the side not win, you owe the bookie $10.

The same logic applies to the other Round wagers.

Semifinal Odds

 Germany (Straight Up)
 Portugal (Straight Up)
 USA (3 to 1)
 Ghana (5 to 1)

Should you bet $10 on Germany attaining (and they do) …you’re entitled to $10.
Should you bet $10 on Portugal attaining (and they do) …you’re entitled to $10.
Should you bet $10 on the USA attaining (and they do) …you’re entitled to $30.
Should you bet $10 on the Ghana attaining (and they do) …you’re entitled to $50.

Should the side not attain, you owe the bookie $10.

Moving on, we’ll cover the Line Bets:

Deutschland vs. Russia

  vs. 

The Line: Deutschland +3 Goals

The Favorite (Germany) is favored to win by 3 goals. If you bet on Russia, there are three ways you can win the bet:

1) Russia loses by less than 3 goals.

2) Match is a draw

3) Russia wins

Conversely, there is only one way to win if you bet on Germany

1) Germany wins by more than 3 goals

Should Germany win by precisely 3 goals, THE BET IS A WASH. THE BET IS A TIE. NO ONE OWES ANYONE ANYTHING.

OTHER THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND

1) As always, the bookie reserves the right to roll the line should too much money come in on one side. Rest assured, however, that your friendly AND fastidious bookie makes note of ALL electronic time-stamps and wagers will be accepted on a first-come, first-serve basis.  

2) Speaking of conflict of interest, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY IN HELL YOU'LL GET ME TO BET AGAINST GERMANY!! Don't even try. This would be analogous to a black man casting a vote for David Duke.

3) Payouts come at the end of the tournament. ALL BETTORS ALSO GET A SCHWAG PACK! Trust your bookie, if only because he can't risk having the lid blown off this shadowy operation.

4) Absolute deadlines for submission will be set one hour prior to kickoff.

Alles Klar?

I’d like to devote some space to the countries we will regrettably not be covering in this Summer’s Chapter. Yes, that means you Yanks. I’m still not prepared to accept your country's absence as an excuse not to tune in. The above elucidated “mini-meditation” and “mini-rant” apply especially to you.

Overall there are four notable absences to discuss:

 USA—“The Outlaws” 

Yeah..that’s a negative, ghostrider. That’s what happens when you press the panic button too quickly. The removal of the Klinsi-Herzog-Vogts Axis shook up the whole dynamic of squad selection as well as the team’s identity. Ostensibly there should have been enough time to recover, but bringing back Bruce Arena was like replacing hiring a bricklayer to finish your crop sowing. Arena always had problems nurturing talent and his lineup selection in the second Costa Rica loss proved atrocious. Ugh.

Nevertheless, the flukish elimination by a surging Panama on the final day of CONCACAF Qualification was pretty cruel. Sam’s boys only missed out on the International Playoff Spot by a fingernail. Fuck. As the Sphincter Twat would put it, “The System is rigged”. Cordeiro will get you back on track. The USSF, unlike the American voters, shunned pretty boys like Eric Wynalda and Kyle Martino to put a competent, more technocratic leader in charge. Well done. Maintain some faith in time’s fair posterity both on the football pitch and in the corridors of power.

The good ol’ USA will be back much, much sooner thank you think. One day prior to the kickoff of this tournament, the host of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be announced. Barring a Moroccan Miracle, it’s going to the joint bid from the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Got that? Football’s coming home! Can USA Soccer get the USMNT ready to contend for the title on home soil in eight-years-time? You bet your sweet expanding American ass they can. It’s well augured and argued in your friendly bookie’s favorite football-related read since Raphael Hönigstein’s “Das Reboot”.

“Soccernomics” from Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski details how the international game will hardly be recognizeable by then. The U.S. is ultimately destined to become one of the World’s Superpowers. Middle Eastern Teams will grow into powerhouses as well. Once we expand to a (gulp) 48 team tournament, the whole statistical script gets flipped. Hell, if the Saudis get their way—and they usually have enough money to ensure that they do—the 48-team-format might be put in place by the time we travel to Qatar in 2022.
Image result for soccernomics small 

Excuse me while I light myself on fire. ; (

Anyways, after the big announcement on June 13th, we’ve less than a year to go before the mighty U.S. Ladies return, sure to dominate the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup in France. Oh yes. I’m already budgeting for the Airfare. Hells to the yes. Live Syndicate Coverage, gentlemen. Hells to the bells to the yes.

So don’t despair, Stateside Brothers. Though A Syndicate Chapter absent the Yanks won’t quite be the same, a bright future lies right around the corner. Don't forget that you’re STILL WORLD CHAMPIONS!  


    
 Italy—“Gli Azzuri” 

What shall we do, Philly Wop Contingent? How can we have a Syndicate devoid of trademark phrases such as “The floppin Wops”, the “Greasy Guineas” or the “Dastardly Dagos”? Whom will your friendly bookie tease and exploit when he’s cash-strapped and needs to set a “Lure Line”? How can I hope to complete a Syndicate Chapter without the requisite insults I’ve regularly chosen to apply to the disowned part of my heritage? Merda! Cazzo! Minchia!   

Oh well. Somehow we’ll manage. Everyone’s likely tired of the vacuous annual rant covering the number of sullen Italian Girls in the stands. Everyone except myself, of course. What can I say? It a proud Syndicate Tradition. Even the most eccentric of guys have an inherent “White Knight Instinct.” Er…beware of that, ladies.

From WM 2010—Day Ten Recap

WM 2010 
Heeeeeellll yes. Thank you much, Italians. I’m even going to back off from the ethnic slurs for an entire sentence or two. I knew I could count on you to deliver a gigantic belly flop and return me to the black! The slump is forgotten! The experimental new betting system works! Way to flop, wops!

So many sullen Italian girls in the audience today LL Che peccatto pollastretta! L L All of these lonely, melancholy Italian beauties brushing their lovely dark hair away from their piercing dark eyes so as to place a delicate finger on a dour check and exclaim to the heavens “Trageda!!” I know, I know, my little despairing pricipessa. Fa tanto male, più che puoi immaginarti! Please don’t give up hope my sweet alluring darlings. Andrà tutto per il meglio!

British play-by-play announcer Ian Darke was certainly doing his best to sell us their suffering. I count five times that the camera focused in on a group of despondent Italian stunners and Darke practically pleaded with us:

Image result for Italian fans sad girls“I say, it doesn’t look as if these lasses are very chirpy this afternoon.”

Gentlemen, our mission is clear! We must come to the rescue of these poor forlorn Italian hotties. We must take them back to our place, light a few well-placed candles, open that bottle of Vercelli Nebbiolo we’ve been saving and put Eros Ramazotti on the stereo. As the light from the candles’ fades, the wine takes its semi-spiritual effect, and Eros launches into “Musica e”, we must tenderly caress these depressed divas and softly whisper in their ear that, yes, the Azzuri will qualify for the round of 16!
 
And you wonder why I root for Italy to lose!

Anyways, I’d tell the Italian girls not pout…if they were not so godamn sexy when they do it. I fall for it EVERY FUCKING time. LL Probably something very Freudian and very wrong going on in my head, but what else is new? Strong showing, as always, by the Brazilians today. Bravo Kiwis as well, though I saw far too many shirtless fat dudes. Good luck to all syndicate bettors tomorrow. If the preceding passage sets the mood for a little soft-core porn, have fun with that too!


Guess we’ll have to officially retire this canard. No worries. The Philly Wop, of which I count myself a proud member, are also STILL WORLD CHAMPIONS!


Image result for eagles super bowl trophy team










Soar, Eagles, Soar!

 Chile —“La Roja Americana” 

Most unfortunate. I wanted to see the rematch as much anyone else. This bookie shall surely find himself longing for the likes of Alexis Sanches, Claudio Bravo, Arturo Vidal, and Charles Aranguiz when he sits down to bang out ill-informed write-ups on Panama, Peru, and Iceland. World Cup Qualification never set’s us up with an even flop and we’re missing a very good team here, gentlemen. Nowhere close to fair!

The reigning South American Champions clashed with the Fatherland in two very entertaining matches during last Summer’s Dry Run. The meetings happened to coincide with your friendly bookie’s slightly unhealthy obsession with “The 33”. My glowing reviews generated some quality riffs from Syndicate Members who love to pick apart biopics. Rest assured that I’ll continue to bend your ear about books, movies, albums, and programs that interest me, and I fully expect you cats to shit on my points with all your usual zeal and flair.

For now, however, we’re retiring this particular conversation.

*sniff*

“Chi-chi-chi”

“le-le-le”

From CC 2017—Syndicate: Barbarossa:


CC 2013
Before getting to wonderfully eccentric human paraquats like Arturo Vidal, there’s a movie I’d like to recommend to my Syndicate Brothers. Be advised that it’s not an especially epic movie. Hollywood has its ways of taking creative liberties with true stories. Anytime one watches a film adapted from an actual event, one should don one’s “cynicism glasses” and assume that the production was mostly guided by overpaid marketing committees and prima donna actors. Such was most assuredly the case with the movie I’m about to extol the virtues of. Gentlemen of the Syndicate, I wholeheartedly endorse a deep viewing of “The 33”!

“The 33” is a dramatic adaptation of the events surrounding the improbable rescue of 33 Chilean Miners from a collapsed cooper shaft in 2010. It stars Antonio Banderas and Lou Diamond Phillips. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, you MUST see this movie! It’s not really about the film per se. It’s about reminding oneself of how incredibly BADASS the human race can be if we pool our resources and work together. The movie itself is nothing more than a well-done-farcialized echo of what actually transpired. It has great merit, nevertheless, in reminding us that what actually transpired DID really happen.

Most every aspect of our human civilization looks good in this very true story. Government institutions stepped in to lead expensive rescue efforts that private companies wouldn’t dare undertake. Engineers from around the world descended upon the Atacama Desert to undertake complex drilling operations in order to design an intricate way of feeding, maintaining, and ultimately pulling out the trapped miners. Let’s not forget the team itself. Thirty-Three men somehow found a way to organize themselves, rationing a three-day-supply of food over the course of seventeen days before surface teams could reach them. They overcame the constraints of a crowded five-meter refuge shelter, shook off all of their nicotine/alcohol withdraws, and withstood 100+ degree heat for over two and a half weeks!
Image result for The 33 
We’d all do well to heed the lessons of 2010’s “Miracle in the Desert”. Americans love their Superhero Movies. They love to debate whether the latest “Thor”, “Wonder Woman”, “Batman”, “Transformers” or “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” lived up to their expectations. What they tend to forget is that we’re perfectly capable of being our own Superheroes if we’d only work together and pool our resources.

Remind yourselves of that. The badass human race is more badass than you could ever imagine.     

“Chi-Chi-Chi”

“le-le-le”


“Chi-Chi-Chi”

“le-le-le”

 The Netherlands—“Clockwork Oranje” 

Their complete demise predicted as far back as 2012, it might be years before Koeman can get these lads back in gear. Schneidjer, van Persie, Robben, and Lens are all retired. Martins-Indi, de Jong, Memphis, and Babel might as well be. Wijnaldum and Virgil van Dijk can surely steer them into the 24-team Euros, but even that’s not guaranteed. The new-look UEFA European Championship will feature a brutally short qualifying campaign that lasts only a year. The Qualifying Draw itself won’t take place until next Christmas. Sould the Dutch find themselves drawn into a tough group, as they were during the 2016 Campaign, they can easily be squeezed out by a team on a tear.

We thus note the absence of the Brilliant Orange for the second consecutive international tournament…and that bites. Why does this nation hold such a special place in your friendly bookie’s heart? Much of it owes to the 2002 documentary coordinated and produced by Dutch filmmakers: “The Other Final”. Beautiful stuff; a film that capable of lifting even the most dour of spirits. Your friendly bookie shamelessly plagiarized this gem’s ending for his own personal signoff.

 Image result for the other final movie

GO KICK A BALL WITH A STRANGER!