Servus Syndicate Members,
No shortage of football-related topics on the board this
evening, brothers. The whole world gets in on the act as we prepare for an epic
Quarterfinals. Everyone’s paying attention now. Your friendly bookie has been
hard at work handicapping the four fantastic matches that will yield the final
four teams.Very confident in these projections. Thanks to all who have wagered and riffed.
Special congratulations are in order to the members who have
made lucrative use of this info for their own independent gambling purposes. It
appears that, while your old bookie buddy cannot always divine the outcome in
the stars, several of you have figured out how to read me well enough to figure
out when I’m getting it wrong.
Syndicate Member 15-M alone reports an 80 percent successful
tournament tip rate based on “When Vice has a well-researched point, and when
he’s half-assing it.”
Hmmm….
Apropos “Divining outcomes in the stars”, a thought occurred
to me last night whilst staring up into the heavens. Namely, I can’t identify a
single non-dipper constellation anymore. This makes me feel like a failed
earthling. In my defense, popular astronomy drives us towards a fascination with
macro-level astrophysics these days. We all want to learn about supermassive
black holes, galactic cannibalism, the acceleration of the universe via dark
energy, and whatever else gets topical attention via now that Niel is
everywhere and Stephen is gone.
Fun stuff, but what about our own neighborhood? We purport
to be mini-masters of the universe, but no longer know to navigate like our
ancestors did. I couldn’t even find Polaris. Who needs to know which way is North
when one has a GPS?
Time to bone up on the childhood knowledge that got washed
away. Accordingly, I’m inviting Jack Horkheimer to present these Lines with me.
Once we’re finished with football, It’s time for a crash refresher course. I’ll
be able to damn well tell a planet from a star again soon enough.
Pleased to have you with me Jack. Such a great companion for
a lonely kid with insomnia watching a 10-inch 1970s Zenith television set that
could only get PBS. Tried changing the channel once and it immediately shut
down in protest.
Friday, July 6th
France vs. Uruguay
vs. 
Cursory talk concerning this match centers around how
interesting it will be to watch a tactically driven modern Europeans Side
contest a more traditional classic Latin American Powerhouse 4-4-2. Let’s hope
such a clash furnishes better entertainment than the two nil-nil draws these teams
gave us in 2002 and 2010. Both matches are covered in the back pages of
Syndicate. Yawn. Your friendly bookie prefers to forget them. Not even worth
the effort it would take to look them up in the catalogue.
Sadly enough we might get something similar here. Bookie
projects both teams will deploy five man defensive fronts. Deschmamps must
contend with the suspension of his most reliable offensive-minded midfielder
(Mathuidi) whilst Tabarez has to somehow construct a lineup without half of his
attacking equation (Cavani).
Mathuidi’s suspension will cool down the offense a bit. No
sense in starting Giroud. He’s on a yellow and hasn’t produced much. I thus predict Deschamps will return to the
formula he used in the first match, placing a streaking Mbappe up front and
giving Griezman space to wake up on the left. Dembele gets another chance on
the right. Hopefully it works better this time.
Pogba didn’t have the strongest match, but showcased his
physical strength under hard target pressure from the Argentines. He’ll play
better in this one, but won’t be able to produce any fireworks in the final
third if he’s caught back defending most of the time. The solution I’ve devised
involves inserting Rami as third centerback. This also frees up Hernandez and
Pavard to the maximum extent. Dropping Kante back and letting Pogba toe his own
sixth of the pitch won’t work as he he’ll garner too much attention as it is.
Mbappe really pushes deep into the tough Uruguayan defensive
corps. Griezman and Dembele stay mostly out wide and try to reach him with the
short passing game. Pogba muscles his way out of the back and let’s fly
whenever he’s gifted a good look. Muslera isn’t known to supply many rebounds,
so traffic screens and propitious bounces will be needed if the Froggies are to
carry the day.
Whatever tactics they choose, Les Bleaus face an extremely
stern test defensively. Godin and Jimenez have been tougher than whatever the
hell this “teek” thing is the British keep on about. It seems to matter little
whoever Oscar places around them. Varela, Caceras, Coates, Torreira, and even
Laxalt have all worked. They’ve only conceded one goal in over four tournament
matches, blanking all three of their opponents in the group phase.
How does Tabarez replace Cavani? Stuani looks to be the
replacement; a highly competent one at that. Cavani has actually been cleared
to play so he’s available off the bench. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking
La Celeste’s hopes are such
Stuani works as a placeholder. Tabarez thus has to mess with
the trademark 4-4-2 a bit, but not terribly much. He has the players to make it
work. Veteran Cristian Rodriguez comes in to stabilize the midfield. Laxalt
maintains the position at left back, Caceras slides in as the third centerback
and Coates takes over on the right. Maximum protections against the French
attack are thusly in place.
The Froggies will encounter their fair share of problems in
getting their rhythm going. As we saw earlier in the tournament, they can play
like a broken, sputtering team if denied some confidence-building early
panache. Don’t expect an up-tempo, high-scoring affair. Penetration on either
side will prove difficult. All it takes for Uruguay is one quality set-piece
for Suarez to secure the lead. Once they lead there won’t be much else to do
but execute their unique brand of football.
Keep the real possibility of an upset in the back of your
mind, but back the Froggies to prevail should the match go long. Bookie tips
them as they have a deeper team/bench.
Projected
Lineups:
“Les
Bleaus” (5-2-2-1)
Kylian Mbappe
|
Antoine
Griezman Ousmane Dembele
|
Paul Pogba N’Golo Kante
|
L. Hernandez Adil Rami B. Pavard
|
Samuel
Umtiti Raphael Varane
|
Hugo Lloris
|
“La
Celeste” (5-1-4)
Christian Stuani Luis
Suarez
|
Rodrigo Betancur Nahi Nandez
|
Cristian Rodriguez
|
Diego Laxalt Martin Caceras Sebastian Coates
|
Diego Godin Jose Gimenez
|
Fernando Muslera
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—2 to 1
Mbappe brace—3 to 1
Greizman penalty—Straight Up
Suarez brace—3 to 1
Laxalt crusher—3 to 1
THE
LINE: France +1 Goal
Brazil vs. Belgium
vs. 
Lord what a match. Worthy of a final. This is the one that
everyone wants to see, and for damned good reason. Neither of these two stacked
sides will face a better opponent en-route to the trophy lift. Whoever triumphs
will brim with confidence as they have their strongest challenger behind them.
Some historical significance about the encounter as well. Belgium have not
advanced past this stage in 32 years. Their last two knockout defeats have come
courtesy of the Latin American Giants. Argentina threw them out four years ago.
Ronaldo-and-Rivaldo-led Brazil dismantled them in 2002.
This battle of the continental behemoths will divide the
world. Yes, we need to go ahead and admit that. When it comes down to it, the
World Cup is essentially a showdown between Latin America and Europe. African,
Asian, and North American teams have never obtained the crown and likely won’t
for the foreseeable future. As we progress to this phase of the tournament, the
North-South divide becomes ridiculously prominent. Europeans whose team have
been eliminated back their neighbors. Ditto down South. The rest of the world
tends to split into these camps to. Asians and North Americans tend to side
with Europe. Africa back their former Pangean Brothers across the ocean.
When the Germans detonated that unexpected teuton-bomb back
in 2014, it wasn’t merely the Brazilians who were crying. Every girl this
bookie knew from Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile burst into
tears too. They will again if A Selecao don’t prevail here. They are the last
hope. Europe has captured the last three World Cups. They’re guaranteed a
fourth if preparation trumps improvisation in this one. The drought will extend
to sixteen years; the entire lifetime of the Syndicate.
Brazil have enough problems without the weight of half the
world on their shoulders. Injury news out of camp is positive, but possibly
inflated. Marcelo and Danilo returned to
training. Both are presumably cleared to play and will start. They have to.
They’re the best options, even if they’re not at 100 percent fitness. Douglas
Costa is more doubtful. That’s a serious issue as he was the best option for
replacing Casemiro.
Dealing with Casemiro’s suspension isn’t so easy. As I noted
in the Dailies, tinkering isn’t really a thing with the Brazilians. I somehow
see Tite playing it safe, staying with the same formation. If he doesn’t give
into the hoardes of us screaming for a Firminho start, one can almost say he
deserves to lose. Why in the hell we haven’t seen him line up with the boys for
the anthem yet is beyond me.
Gabriel Jesus hasn’t shown us much of anything alone up
front. Why isn’t he being paired with him? Tite has two of the Premiership’s
hottest strikers and he won’t use them in tandem. Are they fighting? Does he
consider it his “ace in the hole”? What the hell ever. He has no excuse now.
The most fearsome lineup must be deployed.
As I wrote in the Dailies, criticism of Martinez’s lineup is
fair, but let’s not get carried away. The Red Devils just need to get back to
basics. As that last minute goal demonstrated, their hard work on the training
pitch means they can execute even under extraordinary amounts of pressure. Surely
they practiced that counter before. De Bruyne knew exactly how to direct that
attack and split the defense. Lukaku didn’t need to even glance back at his
trailer. He sensed where Chadli would be and left the pass for him. Amazing
team stuff. Goal of the tournament hands down.
Martinez will likely ignore the armchair criticism.
Professional oddsmakers and amateur ones—like this one—can’t resist overly scrutinizing
his moves. Of course we can’t help ourselves. He’s got more talent at his
disposal that virtually any other manager in the history of the whole
tournament. A few adjustments are necessary, but nothing near the drastic
changes advocated by some.
The attack just needs a little firming up. Minor tweaks
mostly. He’ll stick with the 3-4-3, just as he did as soon as it became
apparent he needed to ditch that horrid 3-6-1. Feallaini won’t start. Witsel
probably will. I liked the idea of sliding Menuier back a bit. He can still
maintain a flexible position, but I’d work Chadli and Dembele in somehow. Menuier
or Mertens might even get dropped entirely as Witsel is the better partner for
De Bruyne.
Whatever he decides, the Belgians are just too strong and
well-prepped. They’ve already have already proven they can slash through
adversity with ease.
Remarkable leadership from Lukaku. Not only did he set up
that gorgeous goal, I absolutely loved how the “Congolese Hercules” huddled
everyone up afterwards and rallied the troops. Wow. Hazard is captain in name
only at this point.
On the other side of the pitch, the work of Miranda and
Thiago Silva is being overshadowed by Neymar’s antics. He’s one of the all-time
greats and he’ll probably score a memorable goal in this one. He still just
doesn’t have the maturity of a champion. Contrary to what many believe,
professional mentality isn’t defined by one’s haircut. Ronaldo carried Brazil
in ’94 and ’02 with some of the silliest shit you’ll ever see.
He’s just got to show better poise. Tomorrow’s the big
chance. He might pull it off. Tune in for what will be a historic match in any
case, and most likely a really fun one too.
Bookie tips Belgium.
Projected
Lineups:
“A
Selecao Samba” (4-3-2-1)
Gabriel Jesus
|
Neymar P. Countinho R.
Firminho
|
Paulinho Willian
|
Marcelo Danilo
|
Miranda Thiago Silva
|
Alisson
|
“De
Rode Duivels” (3-4-3)
Eden Hazard Romelu
Lukaku Dries Mertens
|
Moussa Dembele Nacer Chadli
|
Kevin De Bruyne Thomas Menuier
|
Jan Vertongen Toby Alderweireld
|
Dedryk Boyata
|
Thibault Courtois
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Lukaku brace—Straight Up
Witsel start—Straight Up
Neymar yellow—Straight Up
Costa substitution (75”+)—2 to 1
THE
LINE: Belgium +1 Goal
Saturday, July 7th
England vs. Sweden
vs. 
Er…thanks to those of you who located even sexier pictures
of Princess Sofia after my last daily and sent them to me. Didn’t really need
to see them, but thanks anyway. When initially sitting down to compose this
section I couldn’t help but wonder if I should bill this match as “The Battle
of Hot Princesses and Medieval Banners”. It’s actually way too good a fixture
to merit additionally pedantic hype.
These two teams meet all the time in friendlies and European
Competition. They’ve even squared off twice before in World Cup Syndicate
Chapters (2002 and 2006). There was also that epic clash in the Euro 2012 Group
Phase. Mother England squeaked by in a 3-2 thriller there. The two WM fixtures
were eminently entertaining draws featuring lots of goals.
This current incarnation of the Swedes will do their utmost
to buck that trend. Your friendly bookie takes a most unfriendly attitude
towards this genuinely boring team that progressed at the expense of more
exciting others. Okay….perhaps I’m also still a bit pissed that the team I
projected to finish dead last in my country’s group instead topped the group,
eliminated my southern Swiss brothers, and won a game with Gustav Svensson in
the lineup.
Surely it’s time for these overachieving assholes to go
home. It should be. It’s indeed a miracle that they’ve gotten this far. I’m
more peeved about it than Lord Zlatan himself, who’s been so distraught at the
lack of attention that he’s recently opted to christen himself the “God of the
LA Galaxy”. They just keep hanging around in spite of all the factors working
against them—Travel time, food-borne illness, injuries, an uninspiring
selection, the potentially crushing last-minute goal from Kroos, and….Gustav
Svensson : ( : (
Now they’re within a hair’s breadth of the Semi-Finals and
have an excellent factor working in their favor: England. Uh-oh. No Brit I know
expresses optimism about their team’s chances. We all know why of course. It’s
fair to say that they’ve been burned too many hundreds of times. For all the
talk of the Lions finally breaking the shoot-out curse, people tend to forget
that they’ve still got three matches to see that it continues.
This one’s over if it heads to penalties. No one wins two
shoot-outs in a row. Just ask the Euro 1996 squad. Player tendencies are out
for everyone to see and the they’ll be too exhausted to get creative/fancy.
Penalties are precisely what the Blagults will play for.
Bookie projects a Swedish 4-5-1 compress not unlike what he originally
forecast. The ineffective Berg gets dropped. His finishing has been turgid.
Andersson plays with house money, so he can afford to get creative. In need of
some speed up the flanks he’ll also yank Ekdal and place Kiesse-Thelin on the
left.
Larsson returns from suspension just in time to pair with
Forsberg behind Toivonen. Forsberg’s role will be more akin to the active work
he did feeding the strikers in the first and third group stage matches.
Otherwise they play it safe and shell up until they reach the semis.
Oh Christ. Here we go again. Gareth Southgate doesn’t have the luxury of
making many changes. Petkovic already
went against Sweden sans their best personnel and paid the ultimate price.
Though the English fans like to pretend they don’t expect the Semis, he’ll get roasted
in the press if he tries to get too creative not to mention finding himself unemployed
for the foreseeable future. Keeping close eye on Dele Alli’s injury as well.
Loftus-Cheek can’t replace his dynamism in midfield. He just can’t.
A few calculating and conservative changes to project. Dier
rides the momentum wave from the shootout, taking over for Henderson on yellow.
The returning Delph also takes over for the unpredictable Walker as he was
meant to before being granted leave. As a result, St. George has the much
stronger side on paper. With those improvements at the back, they should be
able to at least eke out an unexciting win.
If anyone can fuck it up, it’s the Lions. Bookie chooses to
go against the grain and tip that they won’t. There are weaknesses at the
Swedish back that a player like Sterling or his ultimate substitute can
exploit. Not expecting much from Kane here. Even if they get a penalty, he’s bound
to make a hash of it at some point.
Fighting my intuition, I’ll give the Lions a close victory
in a rather slow and wearisome match.
Projected
Lineups:
“The
Three Lions” (3-1-4-2)
Harry Kane Raheem Sterling
|
Ashley Young Kieran Trippier
|
Jesse
Lingard Deli Alli
|
Eric Dier
|
Fabian Delph John
Stones Harry Maguire
|
Jordan Pickford
|
“The
Blaugults” (5-4-1)
Ola Toivonen
|
Emil
Forsberg Sebastian Larsson
|
Isaac Kiese
Thelin Viktor Claesson
|
L. Augustinsson Mikael Lustig
|
A.
Granqvist V. Linelöf
|
Robin Olsen
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Loftus Cheek Start—Straight Up
Kane brace—2 to 1
Toivonen penalty —Straight Up
Guidetti start—Straight Up.
THE
LINE: England +1 Goal
Russia vs. Croatia
vs. 
Alright. Nothing like the Soviets vs. the Yugoslavs. What’s
that you say? Oh. At this point, most of the Millennial Kids growing up in
these countries wouldn’t even get that reference. Apparently, a plurality of
grade school age children can’t even recognize pictures of Tito or Lenin
anymore. They’re even less historically literate than our kids. Oh well. Let’s
talk football.
These limping and less than impressive teams supplied us
with the flattest day of football in the previous round, and are set to do so
again here. Very little chance you won’t doze off at times during this one.
Combing back over the Day Seventeen Daily, I recall how I had to break out the
thesaurus—something a writer never enjoys doing—in order to locate synonyms for
“dead”, “boring”, and “tiresome”.
Your friendly bookie nevertheless invested some time in
analyzing player trends and building lineups during his day off and I’ve some
shocking news for you: The Ruskies are well-positioned to attain the
semi-finals!
Can't believe it either. Having been so dead certain that
the Sbornaya reached the end of their journey, I actually initially penciled in
the Croats for a two-goal victory. Cherchesov’s men played so godawful in the
previous match that I wrote their draft for their obituary on the very same
day. I essentially commanded you not to wager on the team.
How can this be? Their previous plan fell to pieces within
minutes. Samedov, Cheryshev, and Golovin played some of the fugliest football
you’ll ever witness. Zobnin and Ignashevich went the full 120 minutes, looking
like grannies sporting artificial hips by the end. The tank was running on
fumes. The whole team looked like they spent a week on the K-19! It was over….so
I thought.
Follow me if you can. Cherchesov also plays with house money
at this point. He only needs to win this one match to cement his status as a
legend. Should the Eagles punch through to the Semis, they’ll be guaranteed seven matches. Everyone will be happy. No one will care if he wins neither of the remaining
two.
Time to go for broke. The most effective way to match up
against the Blazers is to counter their 4-2-3-1 with your very own. Iceland and
Nigeria effectively neutralized for long stretches using this tactic. As it so
happens, a 4-2-3-1 is the most effective arrangement for the hosts in their
present situation. They’ve had success with it early and they can even return
to their original plan with Dzagoev expected to return.
As has been the case throughout this tournament, serendipity
shines upon this Ruskie team. Dzagoev’s injury forced Cherchesov to introduce
Cheryshev and eventually swap Smolov for Dzyuba. Now they get him back in time
to slot him behind the revived Zenit St. Petersburg man. Alexsei Mirachuk didn’t
work out so well in that role, but Dzagoev will. Alexsei’s twin brother Anton
gets a chance to showcase his skills on the right flank not so well occupied by
Yerokhin, Samedov and Gaskinsky. He’ll make the most of this opportunity, just
as he has for Lokomotiv during this breakout season.
More auspicious injury news enables the coach to rebuild the
defense. Zhirkov and Ignashevich were done anyway. They couldn’t even use
old-man Sergei in a defensive sweeper role by the end. Smolnikov returns from
suspension to take over for Zhirkov. It’s not his preferred side, but he gets
additional support through switching Kutepov and Kdryashov, both of whom are
playing a notch better.
Cheryshev’s form is down significantly, but he can still
defend at the back with Zobnin. By not forcing either one of those players to
conform to high offensive expectations, they can focus on solid defensive
positioning and smart tackling. The defense receives further bolstering.
Dalic faces a whole plethora of problems. His aging lineup
grows tired and increasingly devoid of ideas. One can see how he tried to bury
Modric in a more defensive role. He pushed him way back in the match against
Denmark, but still needed him throughout the 120-minute slugfest. One observed
his sheer depletion in those two terrible penalties. One of them happened to
find the back of the net somehow. He still couldn’t generate any real lift on
the ball.
Replenishment on the left is both exigently necessitous and
seriously problematic. It appears there are no better options than Perisic and
Strinic, both of whom have logged way too many minutes. The right finds itself
in disarray. Pjaca isn’t a good candidate to start. Injuries and struggles form
adversely affect Rebic and Brozovic as well. The former hasn’t worked out at
all.
Bradaric doesn’t fit in well with the schematic. Badelj has
a huge transfer mess on his hands. I assume that Dalic will build smarter, but
that’s actually a big assumption. Rakitic on the right and Lovren together with
Corluka at the back would make sense, but he hasn’t been making much sense with
his selections as of late.
I can’t believe it. Russia has a way through. Holy Eastern
Orthodox Shit. Party time in Moscow. Have fun lads. Just don’t forget to review
your friendly bookie’s advice on how to safely drink with Russians from the
Euro 2012 Preview Section. : ) That’ll come in handy.
Projected
Lineups:
“Sbornaya
Golden Eagles” (4-2-3-1)
Artem Dzyuba
|
A. Golovin A.
Dzagoev A. Miranchuk
|
D.
Cheryshev R. Zobnin
|
Igor Smolnikov
Mario Fernandez
|
I.
Kutepov F. Kudryashov
|
Igor Akinfeev
|
“Blazing
Vatrenti” (4-2-3-1)
Mario Mandzukic
|
I. Perisic A.
Kramaric I. Rakitic
|
L. Modric M.
Brozovic
|
Ivan Strinic Sime Vrsalijko
|
Dejan Lovren Verdan Corluka
|
Daniel Subasic
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—2 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up
Alexsei Miranchuk start —Straight Up
Kutepov howler—Straight Up
Modric Set Piece Goal—2 to 1
Kramaric crusher—Straight Up.
THE
LINE: Russia +1 Goal
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
