Friday, January 30, 2015

CAN 2015--Quarterfinals


Karibu Syndicate Members,

2015
Africa heats up and I sincerely hope you’ll be joining us. The burden of following two Continental Championships is not lost on your friendly bookie. He knows full well how cumbersome it can be. That’s the primary reason why your Quarterfinal Lines shall be delivered sans a mailbag or a “Classic Re-post”.

No time for distractions tonight, brothers. No hokey tricks. Straight football.

All of your riffs have been received and ruminated upon. Responses are in order and shall be delivered.

Semi-Final Lines are forthcoming ; ) ; ) 

My Updated Stats:

Spread: 4-20
Straight Up: 4-10-10

Seriously fucked up stats there. As insane as the tournament itself

Goodbyes Section

16th Place—Burkina Faso

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Kerrsplat.

Down goes bookie!

Down goes Bookie!

DOWN FOR THE COUNT!

DEAD FUCKING LAST!

As it turned out, my preferred racehorse turned out to have two broken legs. No need to resort to surgery. I’m not calling up Robert Redford to whisper to this wounded steed either. We’re going to euthanise these “non-starter nags” right now. What a fiasco! I’ll never back an equine-inspired team again. Between them and the Broncos, I’ve lost a sizeable chunk of change. ; (

Hopes ran high as your friendly bookie welcomed one his oldest mates back into the fold and devoted a large chunk of his valuable time to composing a hefty primer section on the Stallions. He belittled such worrying trends as club demotions for Jonathan Pitroipa and Charles Kabore. He brushed aside serious form downgrades manifested by both Aristide Bance and Alain Traore. He completely disregarded the absence of previously relevant catalysts such as Issouf Outtara, Willy Sanou, and Moumani Dagano.

The initial loss was easily explained away. The Gabonese Panthers had, after all, owned the Stallions. Surely Paul Put could come up with a winning formula one way or another. Moreover, encouraging signs from youngsters Jonathan Zongo and Bertrand Traore allowed hope to burgeon.

Then came the devastating “double-down” flowing the Equatorial Guinea draw. It seemed perfectly plausible that such an inherently talented side could bloom late and take care of business. Plenty of Independent Oddsmakers likely erred on the same side. Put declined to show confidence in his young phenom (Bertrand Traore) and his older talisman (Aristide Banc). The lineup selection looked far too safe. By the time the long-serving Belgian head coach inserted the right players….it was far too late. ; (

So-long Stallions. Catch up with you guys in two years.  

15th Place—South Africa

Heart does indeed count for a lot. Go boys, go! Glorious Tomahawk Strike from Mandla Masango! Even more impressive, he recovered from a stumble and kept his nerve on the retrace before unleashing that volley. Each of their three fixtures featured a sensational story. Far more importantly, each of their three fixtures featured a goal. A draw and two defeats never looked so good.

We presaged the bottom of the table from the outset, noting of course that Tokelo Rantie would provide us with some memorable moments of magic. He didn’t disappoint. Neither did the unconventional style of intrepid head coach Ephraim Mashaba. Three different formations. Three unique-looking midfields. Three separate young goalkeepers, all of whom had a paltry five international caps or less.

Mashaba clearly used the tournament as an important experimental round in his ongoing rebuilding process. The future looks bright indeed for Bafana. If Majoro and Khumalo can rediscover their form. If Tshabalala can mount a late comeback. If Steven Pienaar (and this is the BIG “if) can be coaxed out of retirement…..oh they might prove dangerous in the years to come.

Regardless, it’s going to be a blast watching Tokelo Rantie in the Premiership next season. Oh yes. They’re coming. Get ready for the Cherries!

14th Place—Cameroon

Shirt badge/Association crestIn the end, Volker Finke’s new-look Lions could only achieve similarly inadequate results. Oh well. At least “Les Indomitables” avoided a cataclysmic fiasco. Fans of the West African Powerhouse can once again hold their heads high. Embarrassment averted. Why not revel in that?

Let’s talk future. One can easily divine Finke’s intent in assigning Chupo-Moting and Mbia defensive midfield roles. Giving Aboubakar and Salli the opportunity to hone their own brand of on-pitch leadership was more important. Though the ploy didn’t necessarily yield immediate dividends, it could pay off should Africa’s most successful World Cup Team qualify in three years.  Such a long-term strategy doesn’t directly benefit Finke, who will likely be on his merry way soon enough. He leaves his mark for posterity’s sake, and we may all find ourselves grateful in good time.

This bookie is certainly glad he didn’t buy in after that second round draw. The weaknesses of this team were legion. Plenty to build on, though. Aboubakar and Salli merit closer inspection in the years to come.

 13th Place—Zambia
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Of course they weren’t going to be able to knick it without Emannuel Mayuka! That elegant yet insipid piece of acrobatics sealed the Chipolopolo fate. Surely he wishes he could have that one back. Twenty-year-old Evans Kanga and nineteen-year-old tyro Lubambo Musonda moved up to back up Rainford Kalaba, forced into the emergency lead striker role. Thrust into the fray at such tender ages, they played about as well as one might expect….good, but nowhere near good enough.

Mayuka’s year is only beginning. Premiership fans will remain laser-focused on him as the Southampton Saints continue their historic run at the EPL Top four. Insofar as the Copper Bullets are concerned, however, it’s over for the foreseeable future. As solid a tournament as Rainford Kalaba and Given Singaluma had, they’re both approaching their respective thirtieth birthdays and both playing hard physical football in the demanding Congo DR domestic league.

Should Honor Janza stay on, his priority task will be rebuilding a stable back four capable of some intuitive trust. Your friendly bookie noted the travails of the Zambian defensive unit in his previous installment. Keeper Kennedy Mweenie can conceivably carry a tepid offense back to qualification in 2017, provided he has some support from his last line. Mweenie is now 30, but that’s wholly irrelevant as pertains to his position.

Hope to see him, and this irresistibly fun team to analyze, back in two years time.

12th Place—Cape Verde
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A nil-nil draw just wasn’t good enough for the re-branded “Minnows”, who admittedly find themselves excluded from the Knockouts on a hard-luck 3rd Tiebreaker. Much can be made of the fact that they never lost…but they didn’t win either!! Sorry lads. The advancing Congolese may have also only achieved three draws via two goals…but you only tallied ONE. When one thinks about, this particular tiebreaker can’t be classified as “hard luck” at all.

Carlos Lima (or Calú) came crashing back down to earth with poor positioning and even poorer heading. Carlitos couldn’t find his footing the rain. Surprise starting center-forward Garry Rodrguez was miles away from accurate with both his delivery and goal-bound efforts. Absolutely nothing from Heldon Ramos (Nhuck), Ryan Mendes, or Toni Varela all night long. Djaniny and Kuca evidently didn’t get the memo that substitutes are ideally supposed to INCREASE player pace and overall tempo. The absence of Babanco (for reasons unknown to this bookie) loomed large.

Plenty of praise is in order for fullbacks like Stopira and de Barros (Gegé). Together they engineered what was easily one of the best defensive performances this bookie has seen in any tournament.

….
….

Someone still has to score goals, however. Someone. ANYONE!!

11th Place—Gabon

 The Panthers have only themselves to blame for squandering away their ticket to the Knockouts after a downright sloppy match against the hosts. We saw practically nothing from either Malik Evouna or Pierre-Emmerick Aubameyang in that flaccid final 90. Both would appear to have their minds already re-focused on completing their club campaigns. Despite all of the hype surrounding Jorge Costa’s plethora of striking options, Lengoualama and Rogombe turned out to be total duds.

Biyogo-Poko, Mahinda, and Frederic Bulot all failed to click in what appeared a rather makeshift formation hastily designed to account for the curious non-start of N’Dong. Bulot played too far up, Mahinda too far back. Kanga didn’t seem to know where to go. Terrible game turned in by the two fullbacks, both of whom were booked for clumsy challenges. Llyod Palun’s blundering take-down in the 51st gave the game away.

In the end they exited with a whimper, Aubameyang fulfilling an early prophesy of this book by trying to do way too much in possession. Fare thee well, boys. The core remains young enough to keep this country afloat in Africa for years to come. See you cats in 2017.

10th Place—Senegal

 As augured all the way back at the beginning, the Senegalese back line were entirely too slow to mark and clear effectively. Defensive breakdowns would negate the wicked attacking promise of Premiership stars Papiss Cisse, Mame Biram Diouf, and Sadio Mane. Your friendly bookie has been fully vindicated…or not ; )

Cisse saw his first action as a 54th minute substitute in the Algeria match. Mane’s name was called perhaps twice throughout the group stage. The much-maligned Kara Mbodj produced a memorable goal. Pape Soure not only hustled throughout, he also put in a heroic effort coming off the bench injured to deputize for the hurt Chiek M’Bengue. So much for my theories. Even if they were right in a general sense, I got all of the actors wrong.

Dame N’Doye and M.B. Diouf proved a joy to watch. Moussa Sow needs to get out of the Turkish League and into a Confederation I have time to watch immediately.

C’mon back “Lions of Teranga”! Let’s please not go another twelve years without seeing one another again!  

9th Place—Mali
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 Down they go on LOTS! Oh, what shitty luck. Another mammoth effort from the defensive unit of “Les Aigles” and they miss out on the Knockouts thanks to an inadvertent handball and an unfortunate draw of the short straw. Ouch. I feel their pain. So does my wallet. ; ( ; (

Credulous lineup selected by the Pollack. Ferocious pitch presence from Yatabare.

A beast of a game from Diaby and Sako in relief. Textbook header from Maiga. What went wrong? Sometimes it’s just not your day. Had one single solitary thing broken their way, we’d be heralding our Desert Eagles and proclaiming “FUCK ANSAR DINE—ALL THE WAY” all over again.

Twasn’t to be this year. So it goes in life sometimes. Deserving winners end up losers. Them’s the breaks. ; (

Who’s ready to rock some lines? Gear up, brothers.

Saturday

Congo NDR vs. Congo DR

  vs. Democratic Republic of the Congo

Start your day with the historic “Congolese Derby”. It’s a gigantic “fuck you” to the mortal remains of King Leopold (may he forever rot in hell). Two very good teams look set to give us quite the show.

Kidiaba always comes through like a champ. Bolassie appears fit and Mulumbu might make it back as well. Should he be unable to put in an appearance, Mbokani, Mabwati, Mubele, or Makaidi can step it up…or so augurs your friendly bookie.

The “Other Congo” shouldn’t be taken lightly. Les “Diables Rouges Africain” have catapulted their way to the top of our inter-round rankings thanks to the hard play of badass strikers like Thievy Bifouma and Ferebory Dore. They dispatched the favored Burkinabés with ease.

A tight match is projected. Extra time and Penalty Shootout Odds must be listed as “Straight Up”.

Projected Lineups:

 “The Red Devils of Africa”—(4-4-2) 

     Thievy Bifouma  Ferebory Doré
Delvin N’Dinga       Arnold Bouka Moutou
    Prince Oniangue  Cesaire Gandze
Dimitri Bissiki        Marvin Baudry
    Francis N’Ganga  Boris Moubhibo
              Christoffer Mafoubi

 “The Leopards”—(4-5-1) 

                        Yannick Bolasie
Dieumerci Mbokani             Cedric Mabwati
   F.N. Mubele  Cedric Makaidi    Lema Mabidi  
Jean Kasusula                              Issama Mpeko
        Cedric Mongongu Joel Kimwaki
                        Robert Kidiaba

THE LINE: Congo DR +1 Goal

Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)

Over/Under—4 Goals 
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up

Equatorial Guinea vs. Tunisia

 Equatorial Guinea vs. Tunisia

The underdog hosts made it through, just as your friendly bookie predicted. What a pity he couldn’t cash in on those initial group projections. Goddamn Stallions. ; (

A less meticulous man would be impressed by the 2-0 victory against Gabon in the Final Group Stage Match. Take a few seconds to scroll upwards if you care to see why this bookie isn’t even remotely dazzled.

The E.G. Centerbacks will be rail split by Akaichi and Mskani. This one might get bloody ugly.

Projected Lineups:

 “The National Thunder”—(4-4-2) 

      Emilio Nsue    Javier Balboa
            R. Fabiani     Iban
         Kike                  Zarandona
 Sipo                                       Randy
         Rui    Diosdado Mbele
                 Felipe Ovono   

 “The Eagles of Carthage”—(4-3-3) 

        Youssef Mskani  Ahmed Akaichi
                     Yassine Chickhaoui
            M. Ali Manser   Wahbi Khazri
                         Hocine Ragued
A. Maaloul A. Abdennour S.B. Youssef H. Mathlouthi
                         A. Matholouthi

THE LINE: Tunisia +2 Goals

Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)

Over/Under—3 Goals 
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1

Sunday

Cote d’Ivoire vs. Algeria

 Ivory Coast vs. Algeria

Clash of the Titans! This Sportsbook overflows with praise for Slimani, Feghouli, Brahimi, and Lacen. Gourcuff’s version of the Desert Foxes is the best since the 1990 Championship Squad. How will they fare against the hungry Elephants with a returning Gervinho?

Tough call. Here’s how your Syndicate opts to crack the tough nut:

Bony and Kalou work in a few chances well wide of the net. They don’t net a goal, but manage to tire out the centerbacks. Yaya Toure feeds, but doesn’t tire himself out too much. Bougherra and Medjani wear down over the course of 90+ minutes. Gourcuff then subs in Halliche, who nervously makes an uncharacteristic error. That mistake enables Kolo Toure to execute a square switch to his brother. Yaya blindly laces a punt forward that Gervinho latches onto. Gervinho locates fellow substitute Seydou Doumbia with an inviting cross and its 1-0 in the 95th. 

Shortly thereafter, Serge Aurier charges up the flanks and swings a perfect arc in for Cheick Tiote for the 2-0 lead in the 102nd. 

Everyone got that?

Hehe. If only predicting these games could be as much fun as watching them : )

Check your Prop Bets Odds, Syndicate Members. Just such an occurrence has been massaged into the numbers.

Projected Lineups:

 “Les Elephants”—(4-4-2) 

      Wilfred Bony  Soloman Kalou
            Gervinho   Max Gradel
                    Yaya Toure
                   Cheick Tiote
S. Tiene W. Kanon K. Toure S. Aurier
                Sylvain Gbohouo

 “The Desert Foxes”—(4-4-2) 

        Islam Slimani El Arbi Soudani
Riyad Mahrez                    Sofiane Feghouli
         Yacine Brahimi Mehdi Lacen
Faouzi Ghoulam                      Aissa Mandi
      Majid Bougherra  Carl Medjani
                      Rais M’Bohli

THE LINE: Cote d’Ivoire +2 Goals

Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)

Over/Under—2 Goals 
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1

Ghana vs. Guinea

 Ghana vs. 

With all due respect to Ibrahima Traore, a team that snuck through on lots can’t hope to make it past such a talented lineup. Cannot envision this one happening. The Ayew Brothers can close Traore down. Should they fail, Atsu will hold his own in a toe-to-toe matchup.

Conte and Constant can count themselves lucky ducks for their penalties. Avram Grant will pick the right eleven. Agyemang-Badu will direct traffic efficiently. The Black Stars will cruise right on through to the final four. Prospects will be re-evaluated after this romp.

Projected Lineups:

 “The Black Stars”—(4-2-3-1) 

                 Asamoah Gyan
 Andre Ayew                  Jordan Ayew
                  Christian Atsu       
      W. Mubarak  E. Agyemang-Badu
B. Rahman D. Amartey J. Mensah H. Afful
                  Brimah Razak

 “The National Elephants”—(4-2-3-1) 

                Moustapha Yatabare
 Mohammed Yattara        Abdoul Camara
                   Ibrahima Traore
       Ibrahima Conte Kevin Constant
I. Sylla      F. Pogba F. Camara      A. Cisse
                      Naby Yattara

THE LINE: Ghana +2 Goals

Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)

Over/Under—4 Goals 
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1

GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS