Servus Syndicate Members,
Coverage of the South American continental showcase has sometimes been scrimpy as the matches kick-off a little late to make most dailies. That doesn’t mean that your friendly bookie hasn't had a blast watching this tournament alongside you.
So little in this tournament has unfolded as one might expect. Three of the four quarterfinal matches were decided by penalties, where two of the heavyweights met their demise
Down went the bookie’s initial favorites, Uruguay. Down went the second selected favorites, Columbia. Of the major CONMEBOL contenders only Brazil and Argentina remain. They square off after the U.S. Women tomorrow night. How in the hell can life be so damned good? It’s footballing heaven.
If you’ve been taking little notice of this tournament, you can be forgiven. One must neglect something in a Summer so swollen with fabulous football. Your friendly bookie cannot condone your behavior if you fail to plug in now. The Copa America draws to a historic conclusion.
Chilé’s Golden Generation make a push for their third consecutive continental championship. Fighting tooth and nail to punch through to the final, it’s the team that La Roja Americana defeated in the 2015 and 2016 editions: Lionel Messi’s Argentina. It was these back-to-back defeats in the last match (along with the 2014 WM final defeat to Germany) that led to Messi’s brief retirement from international football.
Since he was coaxed back, it’s been nothing but tears, stress, and jeers for the man who many consider the best ever. Can he get the monkey off his back? Can he end the 26-year-silverware-drought for La Albiceleste? Hosts Brazil wrangle with a monkey of their own. They’ve not won this competition since 2007. Though they did win the 2009 and 2013 Confederations Cup, twelve years is a long time for a country with five stars on their crest. Fans are most impatient, particularly since the 1-7 on home soil in 2014 has not yet been properly avenged.
Bookie has his prediction below. Might as well spoil it for you via the introduction of tonight’s guest. We’ve had our fun trashing Argentina in this Sportsbook. Last Summer’s incarnation supplied us with more than enough material. Bookie has a hunch that the time has come to write a different story.
This isn’t a picture we’ve posted before.
All stories are meant to be re-written eventually.
Tuesday, July 2nd
Argentina vs. Brazil
vs. 
Oh yes. The big one. You can’t flick off the tube after the USWNT match. There’s still perhaps the globe’s biggest rivalry on what promises to be a crazy night at the Mineirao. Bookie says Scaloni and the White-Sky Blue do it. A plurality of other oddsmakers say no. Bookie says yes. Here’s how.
For the first time in five years, we’ve witnessed an Argentine coach unafraid to allow the next generation to work its way in and organically grow. It began in the second match, when Scaloni started Lautaro Martinez up front alongside Messi in a 4-4-2. Bookie didn’t hesitate to label the move a “total flop”, but Scaloni divined enough small victories in his forward partnership with Rodrigo De Paul to place the pair on the same vertical axis in the next match.
Martinez moved center, flanked by Aguero and Messi. De Paul worked directly behind him. Nione of that had much to do with the early goal, but an intuitive understanding evolved among the two over the course of the evening. They again produced some good moments after Messi was moved back to anchoring striker in the Venezuela match.
As predicted, Acuna got his starting spot back. He mostly remained right while the other two worked the left. This time they generated lots of chances. They’re well set-up to attack the Brazilian’s weakest area. Contrary to my prediction, Casemir’s suspension turned out to be a big fucking deal indeed. Bookie had the formation straight, but Allan turned out to be the replacement. Er…no. Jesus’s flexibility got nixed without a ball-winner behind him.
A Selecao will play better with Casemiro back in the lineup, but the Argentine scouts know exactly how to fork the gears. Outperform the Brazilians on the third axis and you’re through. I think Foyth and Acuna should retina their starting spots, though some may disagree. Acuna can provide some valuable switches.
Bookie likes how this Argentine lineup has come together. No tinkering!
Projected Lineups:
“A Selecao” (4-2-3-1)
Roberto Firminho
|
Everton Phillipe Coutinho Gabriel Jesus
|
Arthur Casemiro
|
Filipe Luis Dani Alves
|
Marquinhos Thiago Silva
|
Alisson
|
“La Albiceleste” (4-3-3)
Lautaro Martinez Sergio Aguero
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Lionel Messi
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Rodrigo De Paul Leandro Paredes Marcos Acuna
|
Nicolas Tagliafico John Foyth
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Nicolas Otamendi German Pezzella
|
Franco Armani
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—2 to 1
Lautaro Martinez brace—Straight Up
Dybala start—3 to 1
Richarlison start—2 to 1
Alisson howler—2 to
THE LINE: Argentina +1 Goal
Wednesday, July 3rd
Chile vs. Peru
vs. 
As much as one has come to expect the unexpected in this tournament, your friendly bookie cannot find any way route through which Los Incas can achieve an upset here. Edison Flores carried the Day Nine recap, but his team hasn’t scored in their other three matches. Farfan, Tapia, and Cueva have looked totally out of sync in their give-and-gos. It’s been pretty painful to watch.
Carlos Zambrano’s suspension surely sinks whatever hopes Riocardo Gareca’s men have of pulling off a stunner. It didn’t exactly work well without him in the third group stage match against the hosts. Seeing as how Miguel Araujo can’t really be considered a serviceable replacement any more, bookie inserts Alexander Callens…and presages a disaster. It’s simply not going to work.
Discounting the two-time-defending champions as an aging squad destined to tank wasn’t entirely misplaced. Gonzolo Jara, Pablo Hernandez, and Jose Pedro Fuezalida have not turned in the most stellar performances. I’d rate their play average at best. Some moves the bookie didn’t anticipate included moving Paulo Diaz to central midfield and having him kind of circumvolve with Erik Pulgar. That was rather nifty.
Oscar Opazo and Guillermo Maripan have also been cool surprises. Too early to appraise their prospects in the final as we need to get a better look at how the engine is supposed to function. We should get a good look here as Rueda and the boys are facing very meek opposition here.
This one is merely a formality. Bookie can’t see it breaking any other way.
“La Roja Americana” (4-1-3-2)
Alexis Sanchez Eduardo Vargas
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Charles Aranguiz Erik Pulgar Pablo Hernandez
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Arturo Vidal
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Jean Beausejour Mauricio Isla
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G. Maripan Gary Medel
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Gabriel Arias
|
“Los Incas” (4-2-3-1)
Paolo Guerrero
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Edison Flores Jefferson Farfan Christian Cueva
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Yoshimar Yotun Renato Tapia
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Miguel Trauco Luis Advincula
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Alexander Callens Luis Abram
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Pedro Gallese
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—3 to 1
Penalty Shootout—4 to 1
Sanchez Hat Trick—2 to 1
Vidal brace—2 to 1
Callens howler—Straight Up
Andre Carillo start—2 to 1
THE LINE: Chile +3 Goals
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
