Servus Syndicate Members,
Crunch time. It all comes down to this crucial encounter. The U.S. Women vs Mother England. Don’t miss a moment of either this one or Brazil-Argentina on “Super Tuesday”, July 2nd.
Your friendly bookie has had this match highlighted as the most serious impediment the U.S. Women’s fourth world championship from the moment the draw took place on December 8thof last year.
This is the reason the Limeys were revealed as the favorites to win this tourney during the preview sections. This was the fixture your friendly bookie had his eye on all along It’s all laid out for you, presaged before a ball was even kicked.
From FWM 2019—Group F Preview:
Will they [the USA] win the overall tournament and capture their fourth star? Bookie says no only because the girls will have to face the Group B Runners up in the Round of 16. That will be either the Germans, Spaniards, or Chinese. Recall that bookie picked the English as the surprise overall favorites in the Group D preview. Tournament prognostications are based on the speculative bracket path.
Though the USWNT will surely emerge victorious from the Round of 16, they’ll face another tough test in the Quarters; likely the hosts. Though the French won’t beat them, it’s possible that the Americans may play two back-to-back 120 minute matches. Fatigue will become a factor heading into a game against a very good England side.
And here we are. Though the 120-minute-matches did not transpire, we’ve arrived at the showdown. At the time, the assumption was that the Americans would be most vulnerable at this phase of the tournament. Everyone runs out of ideas eventually. The bookie himself dips in form around this in the tournaments. Stamina cannot be sustained indefinitely, whether one is running a cumulative total of 25 kilometers or averaging 1,200 words a day.
In order to change the pick, something very specific needed to be observed. Before getting to the specifics of that, we’re pleased to welcome as guests ALL of the American football fans. Every last one, including myself. The bookie busts chops every so often, but that’s only because he loves you….and is capable of the unique trick of engaging in self-Schadenfreude.
Hallo Weltmeister!
Tuesday, July 2nd
USA vs. England
vs. 
The very exciting 2-2 draw between these two teams at SheBelieves 2019 gives us some idea of what to expect here. Both of these teams are loaded with offensive firepower and should come charging out of the gate. Both have had nearly impeccable tournaments in which they’ve rarely looked vulnerable. Both hail from countries where the men’s teams aren’t exactly the most accomplished, rendering the quest for a star to sew upon their crest ever-more meaningful.
Neville’s tenuous system in central midfield may not be the most salient of issues. The Americans have demonstrated that they can absorb plenty of pressure, as they did using that 5-3-2 and later 5-4-1 against France on Friday. Moreover, they’ve proven beyond any doubt that Crystal Dunn can defend on the right; albeit with a little assistance from Mewis and Rapinoe.
Were I on the England tactical team, my most agonizing decision would be how to build on the left. Should I start Stokes or Greenwood? Is Duggan locked in or would Mead or possibly even Stanway work better? Where to place Scott is also an important matter. To sit her at this point wouldn’t make good logical sense in terms of chemistry. She nevertheless can’t be placed in a position of too much pressure.
Bookie builds below. Kirby returns to the central midfield role, though its hopefully Houghton to starts most of the forward moves and handles distribution. The primary objective of the three players sharing the third axis is to collapse inward whenever flank play is developing and advance only as a unit. Coordination is key once we arrive at the 18. Just as they did in the first match, only one of the trio should enter the box at a time. One serves as the target. The other two lurk for rebounds and pinballs.
Note that I will select Stokes over Greenwood in spite of the latter’s fine tournament. It was an extremely tough call, but I think her and Duggan pair better together based on what I saw in the last match. The left is simply too important. That’s where the attack focus has to be. Kelley O’Hara is a roamer who loves to take risks. She’s also potentially tired after logging maximum minutes outside of the Chile match.
In terms of a “Plan B”, Carney appears the best option should Scott truly falter or the Lionesses fall behind early. A reformat to the 4-1-2-3 seen in the previous match could conceivably work rather well with the veteran Chelsea player just ahead of the defensive line.
After much deliberation, I cannot find any area of the American lineup where it is safe to make a change or major tactical shift. The approach that worked so well against the hosts is precisely what is needed here lined up against a team with similar tactical aspirations. With morale among the USWNT so sky high, only a few minor modified instructions are needed in order to secure the left flank against the English attack and possibly free up a Heath a bit more.
If there is any criticism of the mastery we witnessed in Paris on Friday, it would be the fact that the substitutions were a little off. Lloyd and Horan on in a match where a lead needed to be protected was a bit too cocky for my tastes. One would hate to see a deserved place in the final missed out upon based on the careless need to preserve this team’s “invincible” image.
We’ll roll with the same starters and formation in the projection below.
The only player who receives marginally different instructions is Rapinoe. She’s still free to drift out left whenever she so desires, but it seems prudent to give her more of a defensive focus in this one. She did an incredible job hustling back to assist and in-folding Sam Mewis and Crystal Dunn whenever Kadidiatou Diani threatened on Friday. Here it would be nice to see her assist in a more sustained way, effectively eliminating the threat from Bronze and Parris.
The English will concentrate much of their attention on Rapinoe, ideally giving the left-footed Alex Morgan some more space to operate where Megan would ordinarily creep. Sam Mewis might find a little more freedom as well. In this ever-so-slightly modified system, we also find a better role for Rose Lavelle. She slides in a bit to align a tad more vertically with Heath. Should she rediscover her touch, as she most surely will, she’ll draw enough markers to leave Heath open for the perfect through-ball. Walsh and Scott are eminently beatable.
Defensively we simply need more of the same. The back-five turned in one of the sharpest and most disciplined performances I’ve ever seen. Spacing was perfect throughout. It was very much a pleasant surprise to see Julie Ertz and Kelley O’Hara communicate so well after the former had problems adjusting to her new assignment in the Round-of-16 encounter with Spain.
To return to the subject of substitutions, Tierna Davidson would be the obvious choice should anything go awry. She’s not only a solid defender, but also a real whiz kid with set-piece services. That would constitute the most significant need should the match go into extra time. Mallory Pugh and Christen Press appear the best attacking options in the event that the attack flags. I’d trust Carli Lloyd only as a fourth substitution when penalty kicks are apparent. She’s missed one in this tournament and has surely been working on her spots in training.
At this stage of a tournament, a trainer can all-too-easily blow their team’s tournament by implementing too many changes, making poor adjustments, and not taking the real threats posed by their opponents seriously. Martina Voss-Tecklenburg was guilty of all of these transgressions in Germany’s surprise loss to Sweden on Saturday.
It seems doubtful that Ellis and her staff will make similar blunders here. A winning formula has been pieced together. The composite talent level of the USWNT was never in question. From the outset, I referred to them as “the best female footballing side ever assembled.” What I did need to see in order to pick them over England in this crucial matchup was a system designed to do more than produce shock-and-awe with their attacking trident; a tactically coherent system capable of out-maneuvering opponents as the legs ran long deeper into the tournament. Having seen it, I do not necessarily forecast an easy win for the USWNT here, but a win it shall be.
Morgan scores early. White answers. Heath saves the day.
GET READY TO PARTY, AMERICA!!
Projected Lineups:
“Sam’s Angels ” (5-3-2)
Alex Morgan Tobin Heath
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Megan Rapinoe
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Sam Mewis Rose Lavelle
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Crystal Dunn Julie Ertz Kelley O’Hara
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Becky Sauerbrunn Abby Dahlkemper
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Alyssa Naeher
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“The Three Lionesses” (4-2-3-1)
Ellen White
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Toni Duggan Nikita Parris
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Keira Walsh Fran Kirby Jill Scott
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Demi Stokes Lucy Bronze
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Steph Houghton Millie Bright
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Karen Bardsley
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Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—2 to 1
Morgan brace—Straight Up
Lavelle goal—2 to 1
Stanway start —2 to 1
Greenwood start—Straight Up
THE LINE: USA +1 Goal
Wednesday, July 2nd
The Netherlands vs. Sweden
vs. 
So Germans don’t take Swedes seriously enough, you say? Bookie is done making that mistake. I know 16-M will try and hold me to the promise I made in the Day Nineteen Recap. Might as well go ahead and break that vow now: I will NOT be picking the Swedes to win Euro 2020. I’ll pick the damn Dutch before I pick the Swedes.
As pertains to this match, however, it looks like it's the end of the line for my beloved Lieke & Co. In last night’s daily, I undertook some remedial tactical analysis of both these teams, pledging to give it some more thought after I watched the USMNT play Curaçao in the CONCACF Gold Cup Quarterfinal and getting a good night’s rest.
Neither one of those things came to pass. Though I did watch the U.S. Men defeat Curaçao 1-0, I obstinately refuse to classify that affair as a football match. I saw about twelve minutes of football. I need to see a minimum of 60 in a 90-minute affair for it to qualify. That sucked. You don’t play that way in Philly. That’s why the fans were booing local boy Christian Pulisic. They don’t give a shit.
Then there was “sleep”. In case you haven’t noticed, your friendly bookie’s been going pretty damned hard this Summer, depriving himself of basic nourishment while he scouts all these football matches and keeps up with all of you. The full time job assists in helping him meet the minimum Vitamin D requirement, but hefty doses of caffeine and nicotine don’t adequately compensate for all the energy burned off. Ugh. Suffice to say, he’s been up all night hacking phlegm out of his lungs and is not in the most chipper of moods.
I have tried to get Sarina Wiegman out of this disastrous 4-3-3 that destroys the potential of her wonderfully talented bunch. I’ve even made it easy for her. Keep the same formation, just invert Miedema to anchor. No one can blame you for dropping van de Sanden at this point. Silvia Neid did it with Birget Prinz back in 2011. You don’t even need to flip Groenen. See? Easy. It’s all down there for you below.
But we won’t be seeing that of course, just like we won’t be seeing a greater variety of songs from the Dutch horn section. Love these fans, but we’re just waiting for a January harvest here. The talent hasn’t been properly managed. It’s simply expected that they produce with no cultivation or guidance. We’ve not yet seen them play from behind…and I have a feeling they can’t, much like the Germans.
The Swedes don’t even have to make any adjustments to beat them here. They just need to introduce Anvegard, Janogy, or maybe Hurtig early on. One has this wretched feeling that the Dutch are going to play for the late set-piece win again. They’re dominant in that area, of course. So were the Germans.
Looks like we’re in for a Sweden vs. USA Final. That could be cool in its own right.
Projected Lineups:
“Clockwork Leeuwinnen” (4-3-3)
Lieke Martens Lineth Beerensteyn
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Vivianne Miedema
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Jackie Groenen Danielle van de Donk Sherida Spitse
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Merel van Dongen Desiree van Lunteren
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Stephanie van der Gragt Dominique Bloodworth
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Sari van Veenendaal
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“The Blaugults” (4-3-3)
Fridolina Rolfö Stina Blackstenius Sofia Jakobsson
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Caroline Seger Elin Rubensson
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Kosovare Asllani
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Magdalena Eriksson Hanna Glas
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Linda Sembrandt Nilla Fischer
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Hedvig Lindahl
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Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Van de Sanden start—Straight Up
Bloodworth goal—3 to 1
Hurtig start—Straight Up
Rolfö Goal—Straight Up
THE LINE: Sweden +1 Goal
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
