Happy Independence Day Yank Bettors,
Such a pleasure to be able to use that introduction again. Believe it or not, it’s been eight long years since a Line Drop fell directly on the Fourth of July.
The last time it happened was during the third round of the 2011 FWM; the tournament in which the U.S. Women made it all the way to the World Cup Final only to lose to Japan.
Don't worry. There’s no such thing as an inauspicious portend in a godless universe. The USWNT shall absolutely capture their fourth star on Sunday. Your friendly bookie has been so kind as to do some CONCACAF Gold Cup scouting as well and will also allow you to bet on the Men’s team to win the continental championship…provided you show some patience.
Before we getting to those fixtures, it’s time to check in on AFCON’s historic first Round-of-16. Bookie largely has no grievances with the confederation’s first 24-team-tournament. In a hilarious twist, the one team he used as an argument against the expansion—Madagascar—have emerged as the tournament’s Cinderellas. No truly worthy team has missed out on the initial cut.
As we prepare to pare back to the elite eight, we’ll pay homage to the American holiday by bringing in some authentic American soul sisters to help present these lines. Driving in to work today, it was bittersweet to hear Philadelphia’s very own O’Jays discuss their very last album. It doesn’t get much more authentic than original TSOP artists. TSOP edges out Motown…and I don’t give a shit what you think.
Phillytown’s Jones Sisters wrote a tune that can get us pumped up for some kickass AFCON elimination action on the Nile Delta.
Prepare yourselves for some memorable “Nights over Egypt”
Friday, June 5th
Morocco vs. Benin
vs. 
At first glance, three 1-0 victories would seem to constitute a dull start tournament. In point of fact, Herve Renard’s Atlas Lions may be the most energetic and stimulating teams in the tournament. Bookie has reviewed the matches again and decided that it’s definitely a 4-2-3-1 they’re using.
I’ve changed my mind once again. It shifts back to a 4-5-1 when needed, but Younes Belhanda and Karim El-Ahmadi have their own axis. The formation in the final group stage match against South Africa was especially delicious. Belhanda dropped all the way back to axis four at times, enabling Boussoufa to make a few interesting things happen and get Ziyech involved. More great set-piece designs were on display from the French master.
One change we might see is a much needed rest-cure for Belhanda. I’ll project Sofiane Boufal to start in his place as he can play much deeper in midfield. Mehdi Benatia ort Roman Saiss might also move into midfield, but I don’t think it’s necessary; at least not on a regular basis. If Manuel da Costa’s name appears on the starting sheet we’ll know something is afoot.
As for Benin, the squirrels don’t deviate too much from the bookie’s projected 4-5-1, but they’re going to have to now that star forward Steve Mounie earned himself a suspension in the second group stage match. A 5-4-1 isn’t out of the question but two strikers are what is really needed here.
Hmmm…..let’s see what we can do. It seems we’ll have to deploy Niort’s David Djigla and Hansa Rostock’s Cebio Soukou up top in a 4-4-2. Pote and Sessegnon flank if possible. For some reason we really haven’t seen much of Sessegnon in this tournament. Could be that age has finally killed him off.
It’s a rather tight 4-4-2 with placement accurately reflected…and it’s not going to work.
That’s for the memories, Squirrelys ; )
Projected Lineups:
“The Lions of the Atlas” (4-2-3-1)
Youssef En-Nesyri
|
Nordin Amrabat Mbark Boussoufa Hakim Ziyech
|
Sofiane Boufal Karim El Ahmadi
|
Achraf Hakimi Nabil Dirar
|
Roman Saiss Mehdi Benatia
|
Yassine Bounou
|
“The Squirrels” (4-4-2)
Cebio Soukou David Djigla
|
S. Sessegnon Mikael Pote
|
Sessi D’almeida Jordan Adeoti
|
E. Imorou S. Baraze
|
O. Verdon K. Adenon
|
Fabien Farnolle
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Khalid Boutaib start—2 to 1
Ziyech set-piece goal—2 to 1
Sessegnon distance stunner—2 to 1
Pote Goal—2 to 1
THE LINE: Morocco +2 Goals
Senegal vs. Uganda
vs. 
Not the easiest opponent for the bookie’s tapped favorites. The Cranes can taste the Cinderella run and will play hard here. On top of that Sadio Mané has had a very disappointing tournament and should probably sit on a bad yellow here. Salif Sané’s injury is also significant. The back line has been bending a bit in the last two matches. Cheikou Kouyate needs to get his line positioning and marking straight.
The centerback issue isn’t at the forefront of the bookie’s mind as Kalidou Koulibaly has had a brilliant tournament. M’Baye Niang and Ismaila Sarr appear able to complete a menacing attack even without Sané, obviating another potential cause for concern. Can’t say I’m entirely satisfied with the fullback situation. I’ll advocate switching Youssouf Sabaly back right.
This might mean starting Lamine Gassama or Saliou Cisse over Moussa Wague, but something has to be done to get Aliou Cisse’s high-octane offense moving better. He’s already tried Keita Balde and Idrissa Gueye on both sides. As noted above, Sané needs to step aside for at least one match. I think they can bet on a win here.
Attempting to spoil this nonchalant prediction, Dar-es-Salaam Simba’s Emmanuel Okwi looks to be the most dangerous Ugandan. The bookie can actually build a somewhat scary arrangement around him with a couple of narrow field short strikers and a balanced anchor.
It kinds of falls down when one considers that the Ugandan fullbacks might get squeezed by the widely deployed midfielders. The Cranes are on their third tournament left back. Though they have a budding star on the opposite side of the field in the regrettably-named “Bevis Mugabi”, I think there will be too many mistakes on the left. Unless there’s a complement to Mugabi, an undiscovered kader player named perhaps “Butthead Amin”, I don’t see it coming together for them here.
Roar on through, Lions.
Projected Lineups:
“The Teranga Lions” (4-4-2)
M’Baye Niang Ismaila Sarr
|
Alfred N’Diaye Keita Balde
|
Badou N’Diaye Idrissa Gueye
|
Saliou Cisse Youssouf Sabaly
|
Kalidou Koulibaly Cheikou Kouyate
|
Edouard Mendy
|
“The Cranes ” (4-3-3)
Emmanuel Okwi
|
Patrick Kaddu Lumala Abdu
|
Farouk Miya Khalid Aucho Michael Azira
|
Godfrey Walusimbi Bevis Mugabe
|
Hassan Wassawa Wakiro Wadada
|
Denis Onyango
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Sané start—Straight Up
Krepin Diatta start—2 to 1
Okwi brace—3 to 1
Onyango howler—Straight Up
THE LINE: Senegal +2 Goals
Saturday, July 7th
Nigeria vs. Cameroon
vs. 
Probably the best offering of the round. One didn’t expect such a high profile match so early, but that’s what happens when a force like the Malagasy Barea literally emerge out of nowhere. A mostly yellow-free group stage for the Super Eagles, who are the far more disciplined and organized team here. That’s one reason among many that bookie thinks they’ll win big.
Alright. Motherfuck this Clarence Seedorf/Patrick Kluivert experiment. These guys are awful. What the shit was that in the final group-stage match against Benin? I think it was a 2-4-1-3. Who’s coaching this zarking team? Bob Bradley’s evil twin. Ugh. Up to this point, there were a few positives to build on. Now they’ve all been frittered away.
Zambo Anguissa had no clue where he was supposed to be. Choupo-Moting and Karl Toko Ekambi were wandering around on the wings like schizophrenic whinos on a street corner. Throwing Clinton N’Jie into the mix at the restart befuddled everyone further. Banana Yaya and Amboise Oyongo took it upon themselves to play two-box touch to no one’s avail. What junk.
Rohr and the Super Eagles need only swoop down to snatch up a swerving two-headed drunken snake. Much can be made up of the unexpected 0-2 defeat to the Malagasy that cost them the group. Bookie thought it a pretty pitiful performance, but Rohr did rest four of the starters. It was also worth giving Chidozie Awaziem a look as a potential solution to the Abdullahi injury.
The Eagles return to full strength. The Indomitables have nothing to return to. It’s off to the quarterfinal for the adopted African team of many a syndicate member.
Projected Lineups:
“The Super Eagles” (4-5-1)
Odion Ighalo
|
Moses Simon Alex Iwobi Ahmed Musa
|
Wilfred Ndidi Oghenekaro Etebo
|
Ola Aina Leon Balogun
|
William Troost-Ekong Kenneth Omerou
|
Daniel Akpeyi
|
“The Indomitable Lions” (4-2-3-1)
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
|
Karl T. Ekambi Christian Bassogog Clinton N’Jie
|
Georges Mandjeck A.F. Zambo Anguissa
|
Ambrose Oyongo Collins Fai
|
Banana Yaya M. Ngadeu-Ngadjui
|
Andre Onana
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under— 3 goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Onuachu start—Straight Up
Samuel Kalu start—Straight Up
Joel Tagueu start—Straight Up
Jacques Zoua start—Straight Up
THE LINE: Nigeria +2 Goals
Egypt vs. South Africa
vs. 
Ahmed Hassan’s injury troubles the bookie slightly. While Mohsen shouldn’t have any difficulty serving alone up top—as he has for the majority of this tournament—Mohamed Salah loses a vital partnership on his preferred side. Abdallah Said should probably maintain his own axis and another Nabil Emad appointment looks set to yield very little.
To move either Salah or Elnenny to a ten position risks disrupting team rhythm just when it’s coming together for Javier Aguirre’s men. Walid Soliman and Ahmed Ali simply aren’t good options at this stage in their career. Baher El Mohamady could work, but one should strive to avoid placing a natural defensive back in midfield so late in the game. Obviously, the bookie has no way of knowing whether he’s trained for the position, so it may very well be a perfect solution.
Bookie will move some defenders up, but plans on sticking with the Pyramids players. Omar Gaber and Ahmed Ayman Mansour get an axis directly behind Abdallah El Said in a re-formated 4-3-2-1. We drop El Neny temporarily whilst seeing if this works. One drawback, of course, is that it leaves the Pharaohs a bit narrow and might dislodge the fullbacks. That’s a chance the bookie feels needs to be taken in order to keep Salah on his streak.
Stuart Baxter’s Bafana escaped the group of death, but I wouldn’t describe their performances against the bigwigs as especially valiant. Both losses were pretty poorly contested. His experiments at striker reminds one of Asako Takakura’s long-term prospecting over on the Women’s side. Much like her, it appears he’s building a project set to be competitive in two-years-time.
We only saw Percy Tau alone up front for periods of time during the Namibia match. Even then he often made way for Lebo Mothiba. Themba Zwane and Lebohang Maboe took their turns as well. Zwane won’t be available for this one as he’s suspended on double yellows. Bookie has no intention of crying over this one. He can stay gone.
We’ll build to win even if Baxter won’t. A 5-3-2 with Sifiso Hlanti anchoring seems prudent. It means bringing in a rusty centerback, but what do Baxter and the boys really have to lose at this point? They’re up against the hosts with one of the most poorly built tournament teams the bookie has ever seen. Ramalwe Mphahlele has some minutes under his belt, so I’ll have him shore up the right.
Pharaohs prevail in one that’s never in doubt, but rarely exciting.
Projected Lineups:
“The Pharaohs” (4-3-2-1)
Marwan Mohsen
|
Mahmoud Hassan Mohamed Salah
|
Abdallah El-Said
|
Omar Gaber Aymen Mansour
|
A. Ashraf M. Alaa A. Hegazi A. El Mohamady
|
Mohammed El-Shenawy
|
“Bafana, Bafana” (5-3-2)
Lebo Mothiba Percy Tau
|
L. Maboe K. Mokotjo D. Furman
|
T. Hlatshwayo T. Mkhize
|
B. Mkhwanzi R. Mphahlele
|
Sifiso Hlanti
|
Ronwen Williams
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Salah set piece goal—Straight Up
El Neny brace—2 to 1
Tau goal—Straight Up
Hlatshwayo set piece goal—2 to 1
THE LINE: Egypt +1 Goal
Sunday, July 7th
Congo DR vs. Madagascar
vs. 
Such a tough one to handicap. The Leopards proved what they’re capable of, but still don’t look very convincing. It makes for a nice story that the Congolese appeared to have recaptured their mojo on the country’s emotional Independence Day, but two of their four goals in the group stage encounter against Zimbabwe came thanks to an absolute nightmare day from third-choice-keeper Elvis Chipezeze, thrown into the fore at the absolute final minutes before kickoff.
Congo DRC continues to reel. Florent Ibenge’s boys struggle with their identity. They don’t know what they’re supposed to look like. They can’t figure out how they’re supposed to play. This being AFCON, there will be at least one major upset in this round. Why not the best Cinderella candidates and the team that’s already been outplayed by one of the minnows?
Bookie would ordinarily dismiss such logic as fanciful rootless thinking. Trouble is, there’s plenty of logic pointing to a Congolese defeat here. We’ve got an injury to Jonathan Bolingi throwing an already stalled attack further out of sync. We’ve got Cedric Bakumbu still failing in many of his touches. We’ve even got Ley Matampi trying to do the trademark “butt-scoot” celebration half-assed. Bookie’s not impressed.
We’ve also got Mbemba and Tisserand bending pretty badly at the back. They’re not focused. One can tell. Masuaku is all out of sorts as well. This one’s a complete mismatch on paper, but so were the Nigeria and Guinea match. The Barea have earned a potentially destabilizing suspension, losing central midfield anchor Marco Ilaimaharitra on double yellows.
Keep that in that mind should the bookie’s upset tip fail. Credit the half-assed “butt-scoot” celebration observation should end up looking like a genius. In any event, we’re hitting the button. Bookie can’t believe it either, but it looks like Madagascar makes the quarters.
UPSET ALERT!
Projected Lineups:
“The Leopards” (4-4-2)
Cedric Bakambu Yannick Bolasie
|
Elia Meschak Britt Assombalonga
|
Jacques Maghoma Youssouf Mulumbu
|
C. Luyindama A. Masuaku
|
Marcel Tisserand Issama Mpeko
|
Ley Matampi
|
“The Barea” (4-3-3)
Lalaina Carlos Andria Faneva
|
Ibrahim Amada Njiva Martin
|
Anicet Abel
|
J. Mombris R. Metanire
|
T. Fontaine Pascal Razak
|
Melvin Adrien
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Tresor Mputu start—Straight Up
Bakambu Hat Trick—3 to 1
Paulin Voavy start—Straight Up
William Gros start—Straight Up
THE LINE: Madagascar +1 Goal
Algeria vs. Guinea
vs. 
Bookie’s really looking forward to this one. Two evenly-matched teams will ideally trade plenty of goals. Yes, there’s also the possibility that we’ll witness a war of attrition. The manner in which the two formations match up leaves the bookie hopeful that plenty of space will open up. Eintracht Frankfurt’s Simon Falette has been spotted very high up. Naby Keita’s also in the mood. Paul Put and his lads may hit the ground running here.
It’s very much an against the grain pick to tap the National Elephants as favorites here. They’ve looked very laconic in the group phases, only succeeding in breaking down a Burundi side reduced to ten men late in the final match. Bookie has, however, observed that Francois Kamano is on the upward trajectory even if his curve isn’t that steep. The aggressive play of Amadou Diawara, Mady Camara, and Ibrahima Cisse provide further grounds for encouragement.
Bookie hates the cliché of a “team playing itself into form”, but that’s exactly what seems to be happening here. Put manages his players minutes well, always ensuring that players have many positives to take with them off the pitch once he turns to his very strong bench.
We’ll project Ibrahima Traore as the inverted pocket striker with Naby and Sory Kaba taking the flanks. Kamano can trade places with him at will, giving us two false 9s. Yattara serves as joker. Fallette swings out wide on occasion, but the defensive mostly hangs back to smother any threat posed by Riyad Mahrez. It’s sort of a “rabbit ears” shape.
The Fennecs have exceeded this oddsmaker’s expectations, but not by much. I still think their midfield looks uncoordinated and one doesn’t have to work terribly hard to beat them out wide. Djamel Belmadi’s 4-3-3 relies too heavily on Mahrez’s speed. Few others look threatening. The team isn’t geling in time. Hence, they lose.
The Algerians are group winners, the Guineans third-placers. There’s also a few places between them in the FIFA rankings. Technically, that leaves us with a second….
UPSET ALERT!
Projected Lineups:
“The Desert Foxes” (4-3-3)
Andy Delort Islam Slimani Ismaeel Bennacer
|
Mehdi Abeid Riyad Mahrez
|
Sofiane Feghouli
|
Mohammed Fares Mehdi Zeffane
|
Rafik Halliche Mehdi Tahrat
|
Rais M’Bohli
|
“The National Elephants” (4-3-3)
Sory Kaba Naby Keita
|
Ibrahima Traore
|
Francois Kamano
|
Mady Camara Amadou Diawara
|
J. Jeanvier S. Falette I. Sylla M. Dyrestam
|
Ibrahim Kone
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—2 to 1
Adam Ounas start—Straight Up
Riyah Mahrez brace—2 to 1
Yattara start—Straight Up
Aly Keita start—Straight Up
THE LINE: Guinea +1 Goal
Monday, July 8th
Cote d’Ivoire vs. Mali
vs. 
Bookie doesn’t even want to pick a winner here. Two of my favorite teams. One is set to bow out far too early. Here’s hoping at least for a real cracker. Syndicate Member 72-M and I have gone back and forth on the two Adama Traores until we finally solved the mystery: #21—currently trending under the name “Adama Noss”—is the Monaco player out on loan to Brugge. #14—NOT #7 as indicated in the Day Eighteen recap—is the Adama Traore who ordinarily plays for Metz, but is currently out on loan to US Orleans.
#7 is actually Moussa Doumbia. Bookie had more than two players mixed up in the Day Eighteen Recap. #21 in the top picture might not even be “Adama Noss”, as that’s a #21 from a previous Mali squad. Ach. Then there’s even another mystery to solve! Are these two players actually brothers? A play-by-play commentator has referred to them as such. Seeing as how they were born within three weeks of one another, this can’t be possible unless they were born to different mothers. It’s plausible enough in a Muslim country. We still can’t say for sure.
Hate to disappoint those aggravated by this ongoing saga, but it looks likely to continue. Les Aigles have the slightly better team. Both squads produced terrific 4-1 victories during the group stages. Both were deservedly awarded a day. Les Elephants are the ones the bookie sees headed home early as they’ve been rotated less and have a weaker midfield constellation.
Get over your FWM Hangover with what promises to be a classic.
Projected Lineups:
“Les Elephants” (4-3-1-2)
Jonathan Kodjia Max Gradel
|
Wilfried Zaha
|
Franck Kessie Serey Die Nicolas Pepe
|
Ismael Traore M. Bagayoko
|
Wilfried Kanon Wonlo Coulibaly
|
Sylvain Gbohouo
|
“Les Aigles” (4-3-3)
Moussa Doumbia M. Marenga Adama Traore
|
Adama Noss
|
Lassana Coulibaly Amadou Haidara
|
Massaido Haidara Hamari Traore
|
Molla Wague Mamadou Fofana
|
Djigui Diarra
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up
Jean Michael Seri—Straight Up
Gbohouo howler—3 to 1
Kiki Kouyate start—Straight Up
Khalifa Koulibaly start—Straight Up
THE LINE: Mali +1 Goal
Ghana vs. Tunisia
vs. 
A really great one to cap off the first elimination round. We’ve not been very kind to the Black Stars in this chapter. Bookie honestly didn’t think it was the year for them. It seemed that if there was ever a year for their streak of six consecutive semi-final attainments to come crashing to a halt, it would be this one. Bookie was also perhaps a bit mistrustful of the Ayew brothers aftert their shenanigans over at Crystal Palace.
Turns out James Kwesi Appiah found a way of crafting a system out of all this perceived mediocrity. Injuries have abounded, but they don’t appear to adversely affect his tactics. If anything his team keeps getting stronger with every player they lose. Owusu Kwabena may be hurt now. Who cares? They’re clicking. Kwadwo’s even improving.
Bookie must say that this incarnation of the Eagles of Carthage truly fucking sucks. They might have been better without Msakni after all. Bookie took way too much time to write them off. The goalless draw against Mauritania confirmed my suspicions. Lord do they blow. Alain Giresse needs to give up for good. He’s now failed with his fourth African side….and don’t get me started on how he fucked Mali in the 2017 AFCON.
The Jerry Rawlings Jam-Band Gold Coasters are headed to the Semis again courtesy of the most auspicious bracket path.
Projected Lineups:
“The Black Stars” (4-4-2)
Jordan Ayew Andre Ayew
|
Kwadwo Asamoah Thomas Agyepong
|
Thomas Partey Mubarak Wakaso
|
Baba Rahman Andy Yiadom
|
Jonathan Mensah John Boye
|
Richard Ofori
|
“The Eagles of Carthage” (4-5-1)
Youssef Msakni
|
Naim Sliti Wahbi Khazri Anice Badri
|
Ellyes Skhiri A.B. Mohamed
|
O. Haddadi W. Kechrida
|
Dylan Bronn Yassine Meriah
|
Mouez Hassen
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Jordan Ayew brace—2 to 1
Caleb Ekuban start—2 to 1
Msakni brace—2 to 1
Sliti set piece goal—2 to 1
THE LINE: Ghana +2 Goals
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
