Servus Syndicate Members,
In any tournament, the quarterfinals are meant to separate the truly gifted from the merely fortunate. Minnows get sieved out here. Boys get their Cinderella slippers smashed by the men. The trouble with edition of the CAN is that we’ve got three minor programs still very much alive and kicking.
It’s not at all inconceivable that one or possibly two can sneak through here. It’s been an AFCON full of surprises thus far. Seeing as how we’re about to introduce VAR into the mix, every last play is about to get magnified and we’ve no clue as to whether any of these teams have the emotional wherewithal to deal with it.
Bookie has his picks below. The Malagasy Marvels stand the best chance if one breaks it down logically. Of course we all know that logic itself often breaks down in football; doubly so in Africa. There’s got to be another shock in store for us. At the end of this round some coach will be filing in behind Javier Aguirre in the unemployment line.
Here to help the bookie present the Lines, we’re bringing back another one of the bookie’s favorite musical guests. Indeed. It's Leftfield. It's Bambaata. It’s practically CAN 2015, when I spammed many of you with this Masterpiece.
It’s “Afrika Shox”.
Bookie shall never grow tired of listening to such brilliance!
Do you need a hand?
Wednesday, July 10th
Senegal vs. Benin
vs. 
Pluck your Koras and strike the Balafons, the Teranga Lions absolutely must be headed to the semi-finals…provided Aliou Cisse finds a halfway decent spot-kick taker. Sadio Mané remains your friendly bookie’s biggest concern. I didn’t think he should have started in the previous round. I don’t think he should start here. Sometimes the team’s talisman can become their albatross. Not exactly an easy truth to face, but face it we must.
The Liverpool star’s poor run of form continues. Not only did he miss yet another penalty, he just didn’t look quick enough on the break and struggled to shake the zonal marking of Murushid Juuko and Timothy Awany. Hassan Wassawa’s early injury should have guided his positioning. For some reason he rarely cut in, preferring to look for opportunities on the overlap. Something’s off.
Parsing back over Cisse’s previous arrangements, the opening lineup he used against Tanzania appeared the most effective to my eyes. The suppleness of this approach was what ultimately yielded the positive outcomes, While Keita Blade began the match deployed on the right, he was able to switch fluidly with Krepin Diatta depending on whether the attack resulted from a back-buld or a midfield turnover. Cisse switched them permanently in the second half. Idrissa Gueye pushed up a bit to direct a bit in a 4-2-1-3.
We’ll build using that formation. Cisse has every excuse to leave Mané out of the XI as he still has a strong side and can always bring him in later off the bank. Bookie incorrectly stated in the previous round that Mané’s booking in the group stage would carry over the elimination phase. CAF actually does it very old school. All bookings are wiped out immediately after the first three matches. Accumulation begins anew with the Round of 16, meaning we’ll probably have to sit Badou N’Diaye here.
In terms of a “driver” for this offensive vehicle, Saviet has more than earned a solitary place on the third axis. He deserves most of the credit for the winning goal in the previous match. As tempting as it is to pocket Krepin Diatta, it's better to keep the youngster in reserve for use as a late weapon. Alfred N’Diaye stands in for Badou. We don’t tinker with what I once thought was a patchwork defensive arrangement. Turns out it works just fine.
The squirrels of Benin have still not technically won a CAN fixture in all of their history. Michael Dusseyer earns plaudits for that nifty 3-4-3 that kept his underdogs competitive against Renard’s mighty Atlas Lions. It was kind of cool how Jordan Adeotti drove matters with Seesegnon as the surprise track back. Bookie also liked how Djigla and Pote pushed forward deep into the fixture.
They can’t possibly win here. Ultimately it was the ref who won that won that encounter for them with that surfeit of unnecessary bookings. Zero chance we’ll see another three-back-set with Khaled Adenon suspended. Bookie always loves to be proven wrong, but this HAS to be the end of the line for the squirrels. A ref can’t win two matches for you and Dusseyer doesn't have the greatest kader.
Projected Lineups:
“The Lions of Teranga” (4-2-1-3)
M’Baye Niang
|
Keita Balde Isamaila Sarr
|
Henri Saviet
|
Idrissa Gueye Alfred N’Diaye
|
Y. Sabaly K. Koulibaly C. Kouyate L. Gassama
|
Edouard Mendy
|
“The Squirrels” (4-3-3)
Cebio Soukou Mikael Pote David Djigla
|
S. Sessegnon S. D’Almeida
|
Jordan Adeoti
|
Emmanuel Imorou Seidou Baraze
|
Oliver Verdon David Kiki
|
Saturnin Allagbe
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Sane start—Straight Up
Saviet goal—2 to 1
Sessegnon goal—2 to 1
Pote Goal—2 to 1
THE LINE: Senegal +2 Goals
Nigeria vs. South Africa
vs. 
Definitely the best offering of this Round. Two well-managed and peaking teams square off. From a handicapping perspective, we must go deep into the tactics to find a way of separating them.
Due to the high volume of matches in other tournament’s your friendly bookie hasn’t been doing many tactical draw-ups or graded performances for the African teams. Had he had time to assign grades to the Super Eagles after their thrilling 3-2 defeat of the west African rivals Cameroon in the previous round, many an outfielder would have received an “A+”. Alex Iwobi was fabulous in central attack. Oghenekaro Etebo and Wilfried Ndidi did spectacular jobs flanked aside him. Moses Simon’s work on the right and left kept the bookie spellbound.
Onuachu, Troost-Ekong, Omeruo, Ighalo, and Musa wouldn’t miss perfect marks by much. As I remarked in the Day Twenty-Nine recap, the Super Eagles turned in what I felt was the best performance of any team in all 120+ of the matches covered thus far in this Summer’s chapter. Rohr really has his lineup selection in order.
Perhaps his most ingenious move sticking Awaziem over Balongun at right back. Did not see that one coming after his issues in the third match. As it stands now, the back four rotates marking assignments more than any other team still alive in the tournament. Awaziem skirts inward, with Omerou taking his turns out. Troost-Ekong sometimes switches with Aina as well; a team-oriented solution to the Abdullaihi injury as the centerback problems. It also gets Musa moving a bit more.
Everyone on the Nigerian side had a great day. We must nevertheless examine the next opponent carefully to see if any changes need to be employed. The South Africans provided the biggest “Africa Shock” of the previous round, booting out the hosts in front of 90,000 of their own fans. The manner in which they accomplished this feat was no fluke. Stuart Baxter’s tactics were spot on. Bookie stands corrected. The Scotsman knows how to coach.
Just when we began to think he was doing little other than testing out a prospect squad, the South African manager deployed a wicked 4-3-3 featuring Percy Tau, Lebohang Mothiba, and the previously almost unheard of Thembinkosi Lorch up front. We immediately saw signs that this was no experimental constellation. All three pressed extremely high in an aggressive three-pronged assault that placed them all unequivocally on the top axis.
Those three dominated the offensive flow against the heavy-favored pharaohs. Don’t let the 1-0 scoreline fool you. Bafana could have won that match 4-nil with all the chances they generated. Dean Furman was technically deployed in midfield, but spent most of his time with the back line whenever Aguirre’s men mounted a counter. The fact that the favorites were playing for the counter at all demonstrates just how brilliant Baxter’s tactics were.
The manner in which Baxter stuck with his gameplan also deserves a mention. One kept waiting for him to make a substitution, but there were no forthcoming until we entered injury time. One wondered why the shape didn’t shift at all throughout the match. He made no adjustments, simply patiently waiting for the midfield mistake that would unleash his trio of strikers on the breakaway. When it finally came and Lorch supplied the cool finish, everyone in the stadium stood in shock. The Bafana coach looks cool as ever standing on the touchline.
Okay. Let’s build. Bookie predicts Baxter will stick with the attacking trident, maintaining a centralized position for Lorch. Keep an eye on that kid. He’s the one who inexplicably tucks his trikot into his shorts; a sort of “Footballing Urkel” if you will. Zungu and Furman sit after going hard in the previous encounter, but the basic system remains the same with Mokotjo sliding into the anchoring role and Sibusiso tracking back. Serero joins the lineup and attack whenever possible.
Rohr counters by rejiggering his 4-2-3-1 into a 4-3-1-2 with Musa in a more advanced position alongside Ighalo. Iwobi handles central triangulation, ceding ground to Etebo whenever necessary. Ndidi and Simon fan out whenever opportunity presents while the back line mostly defends. Plenty of positional shifts, but no changes forecasted.
Whoever gets their tactics right will carry this match. An upset is very likely, but bookie holds off hitting the button just yet.
Projected Lineups:
“The Super Eagles” (4-3-1-2)
Odion Ighalo Ahmed Musa
|
Alex Iwobi
|
Oghenekaro Etebo
|
Moses Simon Wilfred Ndidi
|
O. Aina K. Omerou W. Troost-Ekong C. Awaziem
|
Daniel Akpeyi
|
“Bafana, Bafana” (4-3-3)
Percy Tau Thembi Lorch Lebo Mothiba
|
Thulani Serero Sibusiso Vilakazi
|
Kamohelo Mokotjo
|
Thamsa Mkhize Sifiso Hlanti
|
Thulani Hlatashwayo Buhle Mkhwanazi
|
Ronwen Williams
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes— Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up
Ikechukwu Ezenwa start—Straight Up
Samuel Kalu start—Straight Up
Dean Furman start—Straight Up
Percy Tau brace—Straight Up
THE LINE: Nigeria +1 Goal
Thursday, July 11th
Cote d’Ivoire vs. Algeria
vs. 
Bookie remains gravely concerned about his Elephants. The issues we covered in Round Three remained largely persistent over the intervening two matches. Not entirely sure what that was against Mali, but it sure as hell wasn’t football. We’ve got to get Nicholas Pepe and Jean-Phillipe Gbamin out of this lineup if they’re to prevail here. Bookie isn’t even certain Zaha should be starting. Those Arsenal negotiations have him trying to do too much.
As best I could tell, Kamara’s basic shape was a 4-2-3-1 both against Namibia in the final group stage match and Les Aigles in the opening elimination round. What produced such splendid fireworks against the minnows yielded only two paltry shots on goal over the full ninety when used against more qualified opposition. Possession was woefully rough, particularly on the rear axes. One can forgive the predominance of long hopeful balls, but Serey Die’s inability to dictate tempo was too fugly to excuse.
Somehow the Ivorians have to get their two very talented midfielders back into their intended roles. Die and Kessie should probably be deployed further afield. Kessie has the speed to join the attack while the captain needs to slow things down by holding onto the ball longer. Not a terrible idea to have Kessie serve as an anchoring short-striker, but only if he has two forwards ahead of him. Kodjia needs a partner if he’s to throw off defenders with his enterprising runs. All alone he’s too easy to mark.
Bookie doesn’t find it easy to construct a hopeful lineup after reviewing the previous matches. There’s been way too many alterations over the course of the first four matches. A 4-2-3-1 cannot function without a regular anchor and Pepe, Jean Michael Seri, Zaha, and Kessie have all been less than inspiring in the role. The anchor role must thus disposed of entirely as we try a simpler 4-4-2.
Breaking Die and Kessie so far apart entails its own risks. The best the bookie can do is buttress the former with natural striker Maxwel Cornet and the latter with Wilfred Bony. Kanon will have to come forward a bit more than may be safe. This problem is solved by instructing Bagayoko to mostly keep off the flanks. Leavues a bit soft rightward, but what the hell?
The Fennecs demolished Guinea despite not even using their best XI. Youcef Belaili put in some false nine work. Adlene Guedioura got the surprise start in midfield and performed rather admirably. Both Mahrez and Bennacer moved back in a highly malleable 4-4-2 that featured some truly sparkling forward runs from Ramy Bensebaini and Aissa Mandi.
Bookie didn’t project a single one of the defensive starters correctly. He figured some the nine changes employed by Djamel Belmadi during the final group stage match would carry over to the K.O. Phase as the foxes appeared the limpest of all the group toppers.
If there is one critique of Belmadi’s approach against the other Elephants he easily dispatched last round, it has to be that Sofiane Feghouli looked a little lost out wide left. We’ll slot him back center next to Bennacer, but still keep the 4-4-2. Not sure why Slimani isn’t starting regularly. We’ll simply assume he’s unfit and leave him out here too.
Guess the Algerians finally have their shit together. Bookie tips a win for them…and hopes he’s wrong.
Projected Lineups:
“Les Elephants” (4-4-2)
Jonathan Kodjia Max Gradel
|
Franck Kessie Serey Die
|
Wilfred Bony Maxwel Cornet
|
Wonlo Coulibaly M. Bagayoko
|
Ismael Traore Wilfred Kanon
|
Sylvain Gbohouo
|
“The Desert Foxes” (4-4-2)
Baghdad Bounedjah Youcef Belaili
|
Mehdi Abeid Riyad Mahrez
|
Sofiane Feghouli Ismael Bennacer
|
R. Bensebaini Y. Atal
|
Aissa Mandi Rafik Halliche
|
Rais M’Bohli
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Nicolas Pepe start—Straight Up
Kodija brace—2 to 1
Mahrez brace—Straight Up
Andy Delort start—Straight Up
THE LINE: Algeria +1 Goal
Madagascar vs. Tunisia
vs. 
No excuses now. The team your friendly bookie once used as the strongest case against expanding this tournament to 24 teams has defied all expectations and punched through to the quarters. They must be taken seriously. Time to learn some names, gentlemen.
By far the most recognizeable face by now will be captain Faneva Ima Andriatsima (mercifully referred to by your friendly bookie merely as “Faneva”) He captains not only the team, but serves as lead striker slanted right in a 4-3-3. Charles Carolus Andriamatsinoro (“Carlos Andria”) is your central striker while Lalaina Nomenjanahary (“Lalaina”) takes left. All strikers are over the age of thirty and have played the majority of their careers in the French second and third tier leagues.
The most important midfielder is the very late blooming Ibrahim Samuel Amada; a flexible Algerian league professional who spent nearly a decade off the team after earning his first cap in 2008. It was his play in the last match that allowed the Barea to win despite the suspension of their big league ringer, the French born Marco Ilaimaharitra (“Marco Ilaimaha”). Arohainsa Andrianarimanana (“Andriana”) got the start in his stead, but Amada was the one who filled his position.
Captaining the defensive corps we have Pascal Razakanantenaina (“Pascal Razak”), a 32-year-old centerback who has played for about a decade or so in the French Sixth Division. The major threat emanating from the back is Romain Metanire, a French-born also-ran who recently got snatched up by MLS Club Minnesota United after oscillating between the first team and reserve sides of Reims and Metz.
Alles klar? The President cheering them on is Andry Rajoelina, who some may recall deposed Marc Ravolomanana back in that controversial 2009 coup. Little historical tidbit from your friendly bookie’s geopolitics days there.
Bookie tipped the Barea as one of two upset specials in the previous round, though he did rather naughtily flip the line in one of the dailies to squeeze a little cash out of one of his more successful syndicate members. I’m actually going to tip them again here as I still think these Tunisians are certified Shitehawks. They suuuuck.
Four matches in and Alain Giresse still can’t figure out where to properly place Msakni. It the latest fixture he even benched Whabi Khazri and tried him on the right. After switching him with Khenissi on the left—to absolutely no avail one might add—he then shifted him center ahead of Anice Badri in a toothless 4-4-1-1 that later saw Khazri replace Badri to even less avail.
To make matters even more ridiculous, he went like-for-like in the 83rd, placing Sliti all alone up front with no tactical adjustments. He then pulled Khenissi for defender Bedoui in the 90th, yet stuck with the 4-4-1-1, sending Bronn on the attack. The one solitary goal this confused Carthaginian crew has scored in the last 210 minutes of football came off a lame cross that a limping John Boye couldn’t catch up to. They suuuck.
Bookie’s backing the Barea for a second consecutive upset special based mostly on the fact that Alain Giresse once again has no clue what he’s fucking doing. Lord do I hate this Tunisian incarnation. Such a pity none of you took on the Malagasy semi-final odds. 12 to 1 they were!
UPSET ALERT!
Projected Lineups:
“The Eagles of Carthage” (4-5-1)
Youssef Msakni
|
Naim Sliti Anice Badri Ellyes Skhiri
|
Ghailene Chaalali Ferjani Sassi
|
Oussama Haddadi Wajdi Kechrida
|
Dylan Bronn Yassine Meriah
|
Farouk Ben Mustapha
|
“The Barea” (4-3-3)
Lalaina Carlos Andria Faneva
|
Ibrahim Amada Marco Ilaimaha
|
Anicet Abel
|
J. Mombris R. Metanire
|
Tom Fontaine Pascal Razak
|
Melvin Adrien
|
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up
Khazri start—Straight Up
Badri benching—2 to 1
Faneva brace—2 to 1
Metanire ranged stunner—2 to 1
THE LINE: Madagascar +1 Goal
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
