Servus Syndicate Members,
The Knockouts finally arrive. Plenty of overrated and
struggling teams have made it through this year. Nevertheless, nearly any of
the teams can secure passage to the next phase as most of them are capable of a
victory should they play their best football on their given day.
Plenty of
great storylines and some first-class drama set to unfold over the next four
days. There will be upsets, elation, tears, and a whole slew of memorable
moments.
As we enter the Bracket Phase of the tournament, talk
usually centers around which side is weaker. This year the difference between
the right and left is quite pronounced. Spain, Switzerland, and the winner of
the Columbia-England match have a great chance to make the finals. My tipped
favorites, the Belgians, may run out of luck as they’ll have to fight their way
through Brazil, France, Uruguay, or Portugal.
The only teams your friendly bookie sees as absolute no-go
picks are the Mexicans, Swedes, Japanese, Russians and Danes. Eleven other countries
all still have a legitimate shot of catching fire and making a run to the
finals.
In keeping with the Completionist theme that we’ve adopted
over recent days, I’m going to pimp a fellow blogger who’s also been operating
under an assumed name for about as long as he has; perhaps the most awesome
blogging Completionist ever. Your friendly bookie confesses he’s read the Grey
Lady every day for sixteen years. For twelve years he’s always worked the NYT
Crossword Puzzle. From Thursday though the end of each week, I’ve always had to
rely upon a certain upstate New York professor to finish the grid.
Rex Parker joins me to present the Lines. Thanks for all the
help with well over three thousand puzzles.
Yeah….I know I’m a hopeless idiot. I do believe we’ve
established that beyond any shadow of a doubt by now.
Saturday, June 30th
France
vs. Argentina
vs. 
Grrr….this one first. Two teams that haven’t played anywhere
near the level we anticipated square off. One of them gets a multi-mulligan
pass to the Quarterfinals; possibly even to the Ultimate Match itself. It’s
unfair, but it’s also football. No one wins the World Cup without some lousy
matches and a healthy dose of pure luck. So it goes.
These nations have received more attention in the Dailies
than anyone else, mostly because your friendly bookie hasn’t seen any coherence
or consistency from either one. Neither of the coaches appear worth their salt.
Sampaoli has effectively been relegated to a ceremonial position on the
sideline with Messi and the Clique in charge. While Deschamps can absolutely
screw this one up, we’ll tip the French here. Pogba’s awakening looks to be
very real. In my estimation he’s about to burst out. Hopefully he can bring
enough players along on his coattails to turn this team’s tournament around.
Not much of a choice for Deschamps but to try to return to
the formula he used in the opening match against the Aussies with some slight
alterations. Mbappe takes over again alone up front with Giroud returning to
his traditional role as a “Super Sub” of the bench. Griezman plays way out wide
on the left with Lemar switching to serve as his counterpart. The pressure’s
really on Pogba and his less nebulous role. Argentine centerbacks will be
double mark him to ensure the one proven player on the Froggy roster is
neutralized. He’ll have to inventively face the pressure head on to prevail. I
predict that he will.
Messi and the clique, have to go all out from the onset to
reverse their fortunes. Based on close examination of the previous matches,
I’ve built what I consider to be a fine lineup below. Mascherano alone finally
and tasked primarily with defensive responsibilities. He needs to find his second
wind in a less stressful position. Not confident he will. The best available
personnel are deployed in midfield. There’s an issue at Right Back, so I
wouldn’t be surprising to see them slide Rojo out or perhaps give Salvio the
nod.
Plenty of firepower in the Argentine selection, but they
don’t stack up well against N’Zonzi and Kante. I also don’t trust Armani. He
wasn’t even capped for the National Side until Tuesday. Something tells me he
won’t be able to furnish the spectacular. The goaltending issues we discussed
all the way back in the Preview Section ultimately sink La Albiceleste.
They obviated the meltdown, but still won’t advance.
Projected
Lineups:
“Les
Bleaus” (4-2-3-1)
Kylian Mbappe
|
Antoine Griezman Thomas Lemar
|
Paul
Pogba
|
Steven N’Zonzi N’Golo Kante
|
L. Hernandez S.
Umtiti R. Varenene B. Pavard
|
Hugo Lloris
|
“La
Albiceleste” (4-3-3)
Sergio Agüero Gonzalo Higuain
|
Lionel Messi
|
Angel di Maria Ever Banega
|
Javier Mascherano
|
N. Tagliafico M.
Rojo N. Otamendi G. Mercado
|
Franco Armani
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—2 Goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up
Giroud Start—Straight Up
Pogba brace—2 to 1
Messi set-piece goal—Straight Up
Armani howler—Straight Up
THE
LINE: France +1 Goal
Uruguay
vs. Portugal
vs. 
Hard to believe that these two footballing powerhouses
haven’t met in a competitive tournament since 1972. Either team possesses both
the talent and coaching pedigree to make a run at the Semis if they get through
here. It’s not an exaggeration to accord both highly experienced managers
semi-legend status. Of course they’ll only become true household names if they
win it all. The players know that. Expect plenty of grit for the gippers.
We’d all love to see Cristiano Ronaldo go deeper into this
tournament. What a story that would make. The greatest ever with the greatest
prize in his sights; on the hunt for the one trophy he hasn’t yet captured. He
remains capable of supplying us with more moments of magic at any given point.
He’s already got the nerves and the touch. All he really needs is an opening.
I’ll predict CR7 simply won’t be enough here. Goal
production aside, his form is getting a bit shaky. It’s been a long season and
we’ve seen some frustration on his part lately. Furthermore, the supporting
cast doesn’t look to be up to the task.
Your friendly bookie absolutely hated Santos’s lineup in the
opening match. I’ve come to learn, however, why he selected players like Guedes
and Bruno Fernandez. The team just isn’t fast or strong on the overlaps. Santos
did his best to mask the weaknesses, reverting into a 4-4-2 for the final two
group stage matches. That kept the defending disciplined, but didn’t generate
much in terms of attacking prowess. Even the back line began to crumble later
in the match against Iran. Squad functionality is headed downward.
I’ve done my best to build a serviceable attack. The
Navigators will need one as they square off against the tournament’s best
defensive unit. I’ve also placed three stalwarts in midfield to give all the
talent ahead a fighting chance. Carvalho makes a good “flex man”, but even
he’ll have difficulty running into the teeth of the Celeste Centerbacks.
Some slight experimentation from Oscar Tabarez in the final
group stage match. No matter. He’ll go back to his ordinary working blueprint
here. In my projection, he’ll retain Nahi Nandez and Coates on the right and
that’s about it. Not quite sure what happened to Maxi Gomez, but I don’t see
him getting the call at this point.
Pereira and Varela remain options should any problems crop
up at the back. There’s simply no way through for the seafaring sailors.
Uruguay’s back line is simply too compact and organized. It’s doubtful they’ll
concede too many dumb fouls either, so don’t rely upon Ronaldo getting a chance
to work his magic from a direct free kick.
La Celeste make another bid to regain their historic glory.
Projected
Lineups:
“La
Celeste” (4-4-2)
Edinson Cavani Luis Suarez
|
Cristian
Rodriguez Nahi Nandez
|
Rodrigo Betancur Matias Vecino
|
Martin Caceras Sebastian Coates
|
Diego Godin Jose Gimenez
|
Fernando Muslera
|
“The
Navigators” (4-3-1-2)
Cr. Ronaldo Andre Silva
|
Bernardo
Silva
|
B. Fernandez Adrien Silva
|
R. Guerreiro William Carvalho Cedric
|
Pepe Fonte
|
Rui Patricio
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Suarez brace—3 to 1
Vaerla crusher—3 to 1
Ronaldo set-piece goal—Straight Up
Quaresma start—2 to 1
THE
LINE: Uruguay +1 Goal
Sunday, July 1st
Spain
vs. Russia
vs. 
This might be the best offering of the weekend. Outgunned
and outmanned, the hosts have to leave it all on the field early in order to
rattle and derail their superior opponent. We should get an early goals and plenty
of open end-to-end action. These two battled to a thrilling 3-3 draw in a
shootout friendly last year.
These sides often meet in European Qualifiers. The Golden
Eagles seek revenge for that memorable 2008 Semifinals Match in which La Furia
Roja sent Cinderella home with a 3-0 drubbing. Remember that one, brothers? All
the way back to the beginning of that six-year Era of Spanish Dominance. I now
know how much it hurts when your country’s reign of Global Power comes crashing
to a halt ; (
Can’t see a way through for the hosts here; not with Isco in
the form he’s in. All the pieces fall into place for Hierro, who doesn’t have
to spend too much time building his team here. Zack, Zack, Zack. They know how
to play and will execute even with an unfamiliar manager. Fatigue will be a
factor as players like Isco, Costa, and Busquets are getting up there in
minutes. The bench should be deep enough. Asensio, Vasquez, and Koke are
available. The playing time of Iniesta and David Silva has also been well
managed.
Cherchesov can potentially pull off the upset if he has his
lads work hard on set-piece portion of the practice sessions. He’ll also need
to roll the dice with an intrepid lineup selection. Sacrificing some midfield
presence to deploy either Golovin or Smolov up top alongside Dzyuba would count
as a brave move to alter the dynamic of this game immediately. Unfortunately,
that’s simply too risky. I see him giving Yerokhin a go on the right in a last
ditch effort to revive the increasingly problematic right flank.
Initially set a low line and over/under here as I thought
the Spaniards might be too tired to run away with a huge blowout. Taking a more
circumspect look at the sordid state of the Russsian defense, however, I see
this one getting lopsided quickly. Zhirkov and Fernandez, well-rested at least,
will have to pour forward should La Roja open this one up quickly. Ignashevich
can’t possibly be expected to perform at the highest level given his age and
the minutes he’s already logged.
Smolnikov’s suspension matters more than one might think, as
he would have been a perfect pick to slot into centerback. Kutepov and Kudryashov
aren’t working out well. Something fresh is needed back there. The least bad
option your friendly bookie can come up with there is Kudryashov. I honestly
think they’ll get toasted in central defense. Akinfeev can only bail them out
for so long.
If Dzagoev can somehow go we might get a different result.
For now we’ll debut a high line.
Projected
Lineups:
“La
Furia Roja” (4-2-3-1)
Diego
Costa
|
Andres Iniesta Isco David Silva
|
Thiago
Sergio Busquets
|
Jordi Alba Dani Carvajal
|
Sergio Ramos Gerard Pique
|
David da Gea
|
“Sbornaya
Golden Eagles” (4-2-3-1)
Artem Dzyuba
|
D. Cheryshev
A. Golovin A. Yerokhin
|
Yuri Gazinsky Roman Zobnin
|
Yuri Zhirkov Mario Fernandez
|
S. Ignashevich S. Kudryashov
|
Igor Akinfeev
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Costa brace—Straight Up
Ramos yellow—Straight Up
Smolov start—Straight Up
Ignashevich howler—Straight Up
THE
LINE: Spain +2 Goals
Croatia
vs. Denmark
vs. 
Another European Battle; a long-awaited one at that. Somehow
these two keep missing one another in the European Championships. They have met
maybe half a dozen times in Qualification Phases and I’ve remembered them being
good matches.
The Vatrenti appear to be everyone’s favorite Dark Horse at
present. Many project them to go all the way to the finals. A pity that your
friendly bookie hasn’t been able to find some space for them in the Dailies.
The Croats are really lighting it up. A generation we all thought well past
their prime enjoy a sort of late-career Indian Summer. It’s been a treat to
watch. Even the fans have been well behaved thus far.
In the preview section I noted the advancing age of the
lineups and bemoaned that new head coach Zlato Dalic was nothing more than cosmetic
change who would deliver us more of the same. In point of fact he’s actually
done something innovative by using the monstrous Mario Mandzukic as a false 9.
Rakitic, Modric, and Perisic are then given ample room to exercise their
long-range sniping skills.
More of the same would be great in the context of this
tournament. The Blazers match up very well against the Danes, especially in
midfield. They get Brozovic back from suspension, just in time to pair him with
the streaking Badelj and move Modric and Rakitic up to more dangerous
positions. Tough defense to crack, too.
The Danes sport one of the weakest 4-3-3s this independent
oddsmaker has ever seen. It’s a defensive-minded attacking formation that
cancels out its opponents, but leaves Erisksen with far too little room to
adequately maneuver. Hareide really missed out on a chance to ignite his team
by giving Dolberg a shot. Staying with Sisto and even switching him produced
zilch. He’s now left with an even more boring team that doesn’t stand much of a
chance here.
Expect them to lose big time and maybe even get blanked. No
real offensive threat and Schmeichel under constant bombardment.
Projected
Lineups:
“Blazing
Vatrenti” (4-2-3-1)
Mario Mandzukic
|
Ivan Perisic Luka Modric Ivan Rakitic
|
Milan Badelj Marcelo Brozovic
|
Ivan Strinic Sime Vrsalijko
|
Verdran Corluka Dejan Lovren
|
Daniel
Subasic
|
“De
Rød-Hvide” (4-3-3)
Pione Sisto
Nicolai Jorgensen Yussuf
Poulsen
|
Christian Eriksen Thomas Delaney
|
Lasse Schöne
|
Jens Stryger
Larsen Henrik Dalsgaard
|
Simon Kjaer Andreas Christensen
|
Kasper Schmeichel
|
Prop
Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—3 to 1
Penalty Shootout—4 to 1
Kramaric start—Straight Up
Rakitic crusher—Straight Up
Schöne injury—2 to 1
Braithwaite start—2 to 1
THE
LINE: Croatia +2 Goals
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
