Servus Syndicate Members,
A somewhat boring day of fixtures has your friendly bookie close to dusting off "Ye Olde Football Apologists Handbook".
"Close", mind you. It's still a great ride. No apologies necessary. Every tournament has its lulls. Not every match leaves one enthralled. The that today's major highlight consisted of a guy in the stands lighting a cigarette with his wallet is of little consequence. In truth, I've had days featuring less noteworthy highlights...and I really want one of those wallets.
It's all about the fans, friends, colors, and songs anyway. There's plenty of good football too., Skimmers looking for quick betting advice may want to consider backing the Senegalese for a Cinderella Run. Based on what we've seen out of Group B, the Russians might make the Quarters too. Still not sold on the Spanish. I know it's early, but the Argentines, Poles, and Colombians are good picks for disastrous implosions. Keep an eye on them if Shadenfreude is your thing. ; )
Out industrious quest to do live full tactical draw ups for all 32 teams--with the naked eye no less--continues in the Dailies. We've now also covered Belgium, England, Sweden, Colombia, Senegal, and Uruguay. At your behest, I've also brought back the "S.S.S. Half-assed Cultural Minute". Everyone's tired of discussing VAR ; )
We wouldn't even need VAR if this round's special imaginary guest was still refereeing. Gentlemen, here to help your friendly bookie present the Lines, I'm pleased to present longtime friend of the Syndicate Pierluigi Collini. Here for his honorary 5,000th mention!
Great to have you back, Pietro.
Er...maybe stop reading my thoughts if you could.
I'm serious. Stop peering into my mind.
ENOUGH! GET OUT OF MY HEAD!
Thursday, June 21st
Denmark vs. Australia
vs. 
Danish Dynamite they are not. The Danes nevertheless feature
a red hot keeper and a fiery hungry youngster ready to place his mark on this
tournament. I believe we’ll see Dolberg replacing the ineffective Sisto on the
left. Hareide might even switch start Poulsen in that position as he did so
well on his opposite flank last time. In any event, he has to find a place for
his ‘other’ Kasper somewhere. Eriksen must be afforded enough space in central
midfield to operate. The Tottenham Star fared a little better after the Kvist
injury pushed Delaney back with Lasse Schöne, but he still didn’t treat us to
the full view of his blossoming form.
With Dolberg in the mix it will work. His speed and ambition
will tie up Rogic and Mooy, ensuring that Eriksen can manage the middle of the
park. Your friendly bookie spent an obscene amount of time building the Danish
Lineup in the Primer Section and I stand by my assertion that Eriksen cannot
control distribution without the requisite elbow room. Even then the team will
play conservatively with an aim at the ugly win. If not the kid, this oddsmaker
needs to see something other than Jorgensen alone up top to divine offensive
intent.
“Socceroo” Enthusiasm isn’t entirely misplaced. Mooy looks
very strong, especially on set pieces. Kruse did well against world-class
competition on the left. Leckie shut down both French Fullbacks for most of the
match. Van Marwijk had plenty of options to replace the non-existent Nabbout at Center forward. Anyone can take his
place. He can even dig into the midfield with Irvine or maybe Arzani.
I happen to think he’ll deploy Kruse and reorganize the
midfield around Luongo, but it won’t make much of a difference. I was wrong not
to go with my instincts concerning the Rød earlier. I’ll roll with them here
and project a tight 1-0 victory.
THE
LINE: Denmark +1 Goal
France vs. Peru
vs. 
Los Incas have every reason to feel hard done by. As
predicted, they were shot out of a cannon thanks to the novel motivation of
appearing in their first tournament. By all accounts they should have earned at
the very least a draw. They truly deserved the scalp, but it wasn’t to be. What
can they do here?
Deschamps lineup selection means everything. I remain
haunted by his perplexing use of Colliso, Hernandez, and Pavard. None one of
them appeared to want the ball during transitions or break. Dembele was also a
flop and Mbappe looked lost as the solo striker. As I remarked in the Dailies,
the best team needs to get on the pitch NOW if Les Bleaus are going to engineer
a run deep into the tournament. It’ll simply be too late if the former French
captain waits any longer.
Should such advice not be heeded, the debutantes so stand a
chance of attaining a draw. We’ve not seen the best of Guerrero. That cheeky
little back heel of his gives you a glimpse of what’s he’s capable of even when
he’s denied space. I apologize sincerely for insinuating that Jefferson Farfan
didn’t have the legs to cut it anymore. He’s still got a great physical
presence and eye for goal. Cueva’s service has a lot to do with that as well.
Wonder why no one’s picked up on him.
Given that Deschamps tinkers too much too late, I’m tempted
to set a low line here. Trouble is, it’ll only take one moment of brilliance
from Griezman, Pogba, or one of the newbies to crack this match wide open.
Floodgates, by definition, cannot be shut.
As grand teutonic philosopher Jürgen Klopp would put it…..
“Boom”
THE
LINE: France +2 Goals
Argentina vs. Croatia
vs. 
I will take a chance here and aver that the chances of an
eventual Argentine eruption have been severely diminished. As ridiculous as it
might sound, they could even get finished off here. As feared, Sampioli’s side
looks predictable at best and woefully confused at worst. There’s a
mini-diatribe about the total misuse of Otamendi, Mascherano, and Messi
himself. Adjustments can and will be made, but the Croats boast a bunch of
long-range snipers to force an already flustered eleven to play catch up.
Rebic and Kramaric, two Bundesliga stars that I absolutely
did not project to start, interject life into a midfield previously considered banal
and weak. Perisic and Rebic float toward the flanks often, spreading the field
and defenses with an unexpected lateral impulse. Though your friendly bookie
always projected the Blazers to finish second in the group, I must concede that
I undervalued them significantly.
For me the matchup that matters most in this one will be
Modric vs. Mascherano. The two former La Liga rivals will not only be
responsible for leading the charge off the break, they’ll also engage in many
battles directly in front of their respective back lines. On either side of the
movement, it all comes down to these two.
Advantage Modric. Even if he loses as greater share of the
challenges—which I actually doubt he will—his centerbacks and keeper remain
stronger. I’ll augur a draw, but don’t be surprised if Vartreni actually win!
THE
LINE: Pick em’
Friday, June 22st
Brazil vs. Costa Rica
vs. 
Very interesting one here. Something’s got to give as these
two underperforming stylistic sides square off. To make matters more
interesting still, Neymar’s reportedly hurt again. Speculation abounds that
he’s re-aggravated his early-season injury and may miss the rest of the
competition. Terrible news for football enthusiasts everywhere, but not
necessarily for this match. This bookie
can build a better lineup without him in point of fact.
Gabriel can remain the central attacking forward,
functioning either as a faux or genuine Number 9. Firminho replaces Neymar,
taking the flanks along with Douglas Costa in place of Willian. “New Fred” also
remains an option on the right. Coutinho moves back alongside Barça teammate
Paulinho—like I originally predicted—taking turns prowling the edge of the box
or marking the break man as they’re known to do so well.
No one has the legitimate right to cross off A Selecao
simply because the Swiss neutralized them in the opening affair. We expected
that. This year’s Nati are a very good squad indeed. This version of the Ticos
aren’t even approaching good. Guzman, Ruiz, Borges, Campbell, and Urena all
played like junk. Didn’t get a chance to see either Oviedo or Tejada. Doesn’t
matter. Duarte was all of nowhere in his preferred formational role.
Down in flames goes the 2014 Cinderella.
THE
LINE: Brazil +2 Goals
Nigeria vs. Iceland
vs. 
The second group-stage match remains fertile ground for a
surprise or two. One wonders, however, if we’ve already exceeded our allotted surprise
quota. Bookie sayeth not. The safe bet here would be to pick a draw. Surely
someone else considers Iceland this year’s version of the 2010 New Zealand
Side. They’re built to draw. The inhabitants of an uninhabitable isle are,
after all, adapters. They’ve been adapting to the unforgiving realities of
their homeland for a solid millennium. The don’t excel in instigating
situations. Responding to them appears to be their specialty.
I’m still backing the Eagles in spite of their turgid
performance on Saturday night. For starters, it’s unlikely that they can
literally play any worse. When I first saw the lineups I remained convinced
that it was all a bad dream. Igahalo can still find the back of the net, but
this isn’t the fucking Chinese League. How could he have gone with him? Both
Musa and Ihenacho sat on the bench so that we could all behold the non-wonder
known as…wait for it…Oghenekaro Etebo!
Er…who? Apparently some kid who just signed for Stoke.
That’s cute and all, but Rohr had three Leicester City teammates with some
degree of familiarity with each other that might have easily done better than
him or declining brands like Iwobi or Moses.
Etebo evidently possesses an impressive skill set and he’ll
be hungry to atone for his unfortunate own goal. Thus he can stay. Musa and
Ihenacho should replace Iwobi and Ighalo. The much discussed
Balogun/Trost-Ekong defensive axis didn’t work out as hoped, so I’d move Abdullahi
in, place Ebuehi at right back, bring Elderson back on the left and pitch Ekong
to the win. Probably won’t see that as defensive changes so dramatic are rare,
but this bookie happens to think it’s a decent idea.
Whatever Rohr ends up doing, I think he’s got the kader to construct a much better selection. Buoyed by the recent surge of their Senegalese sub-Saharan brothers, our Eagles will soar to a surprise victory.
Yes, gentlemen. This constitutes our first official “Upset
Alert” Button of the tournament. I came close to pushing it a few times and
likely should have. Here goes.
UPSET ALERT!
THE
LINE: Nigeria +1 Goal
Serbia vs. Switzerland
vs. 
Petkovic’s eleven doesn’t disappoint. Really like what he
did pairing Behrami with Xhaka and moving Dzemali up to share the same lateral
position with Shaqiri and Zuber. Genius. This bookie would have never pieced it
together so well. It brings out the absolute best in Behrami, who played like a
man ten years younger. Ajanji next to Schär was also an inspired choice. It
allows Rodriguez and Lichtsteiner to funnel inwards on their forward runs,
giving this team an inspired attack.
I liked pretty much everything I saw from the White Eagles
as well. Mitrovic and Milankovic-Savic didn't get off to spectacular starts,
but both demonstrated strong creativity and supplied us with some fine
acrobatics. Either Kostic or Ljajic match up well against Shaqiri. Either
Ivanovic or Rukarina can be called upon to cancel out Seferovic.
Arrggh. It’s so close. Razor thin. The Swiss are essentially
a Serbian team with a Serbian coach and Serbian stars. Might as well deem this
one Serbia vs. Serbia.
I just fancy the Swiss to prevail after what should be a
hard-fought slugfest. La Nati are more polished, better and out wide, and have
fewer weaknesses at the back.
Looking forward to this one!
THE
LINE: Switzerland +1 Goal
Saturday, June 23rd
Belgium vs. Tunisia
vs. 
I’m prepared to officially jettison what little hope the
Carthaginians had of progressing past the group. Didn’t take much convincing. Khazri
did indeed start at striker just like I predicted, but wilted within minutes
just as I should have. F.B. Youssef and Sliti tri-denting a 4-3-3 showed
ambition as did having Ali Maaloul and Syam Ben Yousef play an unusually high
line. Reality came crashing down quick. Frustration as the name of the game
after Kane’s early.
At this juncture, the best ideas for fielding a formation
absent Mskani and Abdennour have been exhausted. One finds zero decent options
calling from the roster. Ben Amor is out of practice. Srarfi can’t be expected
to perform miracles against one of the best teams in the world. Shkri and Bronn
were busts. Sliti couldn't even best Sterling.
Another welcome mat for my chosen favorites to wipe their
feet on. How fortunate they are to begin with two mammoth mismatches. Martinez
& Co. trudge such an enviably easy path. Hence their status.
Onwards Rod, Rot, Rude…whatever you wish to call yourselves
; )
THE
LINE: Belgium +2 Goals
South Korea vs. Mexico
vs. 
With their foot firmly on the gas pedal the Aztec Warriors
cannot fail. Many a raised eyebrow from the Mexican contingent when I selected
Hirving Lozano as the team’s talisman. Some thought it too soon for him. Well.
Did your friendly bookie tell you or did he tell you? The technical marvel of
this tournament’s set-piece goals lead to their placement on everyone’s top
five list, but Lozano’s opener against the Germans was the true work of art.
Much better than Costa’s first. Three brilliant touches from the PSV striker
coupled with extraordinary patience from someone so young left me spellbound. Look
for him in the Premiership soon.
Lozano didn’t start him directly up front in the first
match, but should do so here. Might as well put Hernandez back and either Layun
or Vela. I’d probably also rest Herrera and Moreno to avoid the risk of
suspension. Aquino, Alvarez, or one of the dos Santos brothers will do just
fine. Shaking things up against the spy-savy South Koreans would be a good
idea. He’ll need to retain the first-string attackers to secure an early lead
as the Taeguks remain quite capable of scoring early themselves.
Shin Tae-Yong basically conveyed his entire strategy in the
mini-spy-gate press conference. He expects that westerners will get his team
confused ; ) That’s actually not so far from the truth. Few know of any Jeonsas
other than Heung-Min Son and Shin-Wook Kim….and those are the anglicized ordering
of their names!
Your friendly bookie knows a bit and he cautions against taking
them lightly. Koo Ja-cheol and Hwang Hee-chan are capable European-league attackers
who might sneak up on you. Ki Sung-Yung, a familiar name to Premiership fans, happens
to be a very competent captain.
Wish I could presage more hope for the Taeguks here, but the
injury to Park Joo-Ho (a buccaneering Bundesliga left back) likely seals their
fate.
THE
LINE: Mexico +1 Goal
Deutschland vs. Sweden
vs. 
Full coverage of the eagerly anticipated Swedes in the
Daily. I expect to see Kiese Thelin and Guidetti up front with Berg in the
primary backup role. Forsberg may push a bit inward to take advantage of our
roaming fullbacks. Olsson gets the start along with the existing back four as
Andersson reformates to a protective 5-3-2. Claesson is the odd man out.
Toivonen and Durmaz remain on the bench, subbed in to attain a late winner
should the Blaugults keep it close.
As for die Nationalmannschaft, Brandt replaces Özil, Hector
returns, and Gomez might start over Werner depending on the severity of his
injury. Müller might get moved up front too. He’s clearly in the mood.
The only additional note I’ll add to this one concerns
travel time; a factor I don’t often discuss. Modern day strength and
conditioning measures pretty much obviate the need to consider this an
instrumental determinant in sports gambling. There’s also the a high level of
organization involved in quickly ferrying players from one host city to
another, even in a large country. We are nevertheless seeing some fatigue set
in among players as they train and travel in the humid Russian Summer weather.
Something is afoot.
The match will be played in Sochi, a day’s trip from Germany’s
previous match in Moscow and were the Swedes kicked off in Nizhny Novgorod.
Weather prognoses aren’t exactly sultry, but the Swedes must take into account that
they have to be all the way over in Yekaterinburg by Wednesday.
Hmmm….probably won’t make a difference yet. It is, however, something
to keep in mind as the tournament progresses. Independent handicappers take
note.
In a re-match of the 2006 Round of 16 fixture, the
Fatherland cruises on.
THE
LINE: Deutschland +2 Goals
Sunday, June 24th
England vs. Panama
vs. 
As long as we’ve seen the last of that fancy-schmancy
wingback formation we should be fine. Gareth Southgate apparently dislocated
his shoulder attempting to imitate Aliou Cisse so there’s hope he’ll be
distracted enough to come up with something simple and effective. Hell, that
gives me an idea. Perhaps your friendly bookie should intentionally injury
himself too. Stupid just works better sometimes.
Los Caneleros won’t over-achieve for long here. Davis and
Murrillo look to be flagged and frustrated already. Escobar showed me little.
He’ll have another chance to show more, but I doubt think he’s who we thought
he was. Jose Luis Rodriguez was another disappointment. It’d be great to get a
look at Avila. After that I think we’ve seen enough of the Isthmusers.
I’ll project Rashford to start alongside Kane, Loftus-Cheek
over Henderson, Lingard/Trippier on the flanks, and Deli Alli centrally behind
the strikers.
An easy win in any case.
THE LINE: England +2 Goals
Japan vs. Senegal
vs. 
Which of the two surprise teams will win? A rhetorical question
despite my African Biases. Head over to the Day Six Recap should you need a
full review of what a catastrophic tactical nightmare the Colombians experienced.
Our loved yet overrated Blue Samurai merely capitalized on an auspicious situation.
Anyone could have done it.
One did get a glimpse of how well Akira’s scheme can work in
practice during the second half. Kagawa plays flight director, but more
importantly draws much of the coverage inward. Inui, Haraguchi, and Hasebe try
to lose shake their markers to get the horizontal game going. Meh. It didn’t
work out to well against ten men and it won’t work against a beastly eleven
here.
Sane and Koulibaly will shut down either Okazaki or Osako
easily. Hasebe, Inui, and Honda are all in the autumn of their careers. It will
show. Yoshida can compete in the air, but Shoji can’t.
The more this bookie studies Cisse’s Teranga Lions the more
he’s convinced they’re destined to attain the quarterfinals. Their roster runs
so deep with powerful up-tempo players on all thirds of the field. Cisse knows
how to build and is truly keen in terms what he’s looking for in terms of
head-to-head matchups.
Roar on, lads.
THE
LINE: Senegal +1 Goal
Poland vs. Columbia
vs. 
What went wrong? 74-M has no shortage of opinions, but most
of those revolve around Wojciech Szszesny being paid off by the Russian Mafia.
Not impossible, but doubtful. Poor Polish fans have a sordid history of
welcoming their team back to the Warsaw airport around this time of year. They
always seem to get upset in the opening match too: 0-2 defeat to South Korea in
2002, 0-2 loss to Ecuador in 2006. Were it not for Krychowiak’s last minute
atonement for his defensive error, we might have seen an 0-2 opening loss for
the THIRD consecutive World Cup.
Our Orly brothers certainly don’t deserve this. They’re back
in the Global Competition for the first time in twelve years, only two years
removed from that heartbreak in the Euros. Contrary to what stereotypical humor
you might have shallowly enjoyed over the years, Polish football fans are among
the most cerebral and witty ones you’re ever likely to meet. Great guys to hang
with and watch a match. And they keep getting shat upon!
Huge match here. Both teams were favored to advance and now
have their backs against the wall. It’s not looking good. Nawalka’s predictable
choices—augured almost perfectly buy this bookie—were stale and all-too-easily calculable.
The Golden Generation really is declining. Only Lewandowski appears to be on
the upward trajectory. That’s the only reason this is a pick. I probably
shouldn’t even be giving you that. Milik’s doesn’t seem to have any more ideas.
Who will feed him?
We’ll go out on a limb here and say that the aging Poles won’t
have to play catch up. James Rodriguez will start, but Pekerman missed out on
the chance to fine tune his new system. It will take time for Los Cafeteros to
get offensively situated; time enough to steal a goal perhaps before they
equalize.
THE
LINE: Pick em’
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
