Пое́хали Syndicate Members!
We’re finally
ready to rock the Lines and utter the sacred phrase.
Everything's set to go, everything’s in place and
everyone’s ready…....with the possible exception of the Spanish.
Apparently they
now do everything at the last minute. Guess who’s
coming late to dinner…again. ; )
Jetzt geht’s endlich los!
Thanks to some absurdly long conversations with many of you—valued
as always—the good ol’ friendly bookie only had enough time to handicap matches
through the weekend. This constitutes a slight format change to the line
releases, or a return to way we published them back in 2010. All betting rules
remain the same. You’ll find a complete review of them in the initial OSINT
Post:
You’ll find a great deal else there as well. Chief among them
is the standard impassioned plea for everyone to place their problems and their
standard world-worrying on the backburner for now. Let’s just enjoy the
Greatest Show on Earth. We’ve all earned a vacation…and fuck that “too-cool-for-school”
Hipster Dude who can’t write for shit anyway. Seriously. Fuck that guy.
And don’t go making me repost my comments on accepting
political realities you can’t control from 2013 and 2017. The last thing this
bookie wishes to do the erudite pundit thing. We’ve an Election Blog for that.
Not too late to get your Onset Betting Odds and Group
Predictions in, brothers. Today it’s all about the Lines, the actual backbone
of the written Sportsbook sixteen years. I actually set my first Line around
the age of twelve, back when I was booking NFL Matches in Junior High. Yeah. The
lunch room just cried out for a seedy and shifty character. I stepped up and
filled the need. Seedy and shifty characters aren’t in as much demand these
days. Glad I’ve long-since stopped being one.
Hell, by the time the 2026 World Cup comes to North America,
legal betting parlors will exist on virtually every American street corner….right
next to the herb dispensary and addiction/substance-abuse clinic. You’ll be
able to gamble and get wasted legally, then head two doors down to overpay for
professional help. I implore you to stick with your “friendly neighborhood
betting syndicate” as long as you can. The odds may not be as great, but you
actually get to interact with a nice guy and obtain some quality Schwag at the
end.
Customarily your friendly bookie welcomes the imaginary
company of a special guest to help him present the lines. In the past we’ve
welcomed, among others, Brazilian soul-funk fusion legend Wilson Simonal and the
embodiment of all things Zeitgeist Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson. This year we’ve got
a great one. No, it’s not that Hipster Douche either.
Gentlemen, please join me in welcoming the host of your
friendly bookie’s favorite program “Shabbat Night Live”: Rabbi Michael Rood!
Shalom! I humbly petition for his consecration of my oddsmaking. Unfortunately,
I’ll have to take a hiatus from my regular obsessive viewing of his Friday
night program to watch the WM. See you in late July, my Mensch!
Err…Rabbi. Please bless these lines with ritually pure
kosher “Jewiness”….or something to that ethnic effect. ; )
Thursday, June 14th
Russia vs. Saudi Arabia
vs. 
Why not get matters started with the two worst teams in the
tournament? Defensive lapses lead to early goals we should get plenty of them
here. We’re far removed from fixture-by-fixture Over/Under Props, a feature we
don’t ordinarily debut until the knockouts. I’ll nevertheless through a few
rabid gamblers a lay with a six-goal-ceiling. You bet. This free-flowing affair
has all the hallmarks of the energizing 4-2 match that kicked us off in 2006.
All indicators point to an enthralling opener.
Tangential fans of the game are advised to tune in early for
all the flippant splendor of the FIFA Opening Ceremonies. Syndicate Members and
I typically exchange ample texts expressing shock and disbelief. It gets more
extravagantly ridiculous every year. We can scarcely believe what we’re
watching. Among other things, one wonders if they’ll continue along the
traditional Euro-Trash Trajectory when the tournament comes to America in 2026.
One also wonders what a then 50-year-old Shakira will look like. Will she still
prove capable of sprucely shaking her rump at that age?
After all the pageantry, I expect the buoyed and invigorated
hosts to dominate this one. Since the Preview Section, we’ve learned that
Cherchesov kept both Miranchuk twins on his final roster. At present, I even
expect him to make a fearless statement by starting them both in midfield
alongside Golovin. Affording the youngsters such a gallant opportunity may
produce immediate results. To hell with that pouch defensive system. The
keeper-turned-coach might surprise everyone by going for the jugular.
Assuming the young phenoms are up to the task—and they
better be if this team stands a chance of defying the odds—the Russians obtain
significantly more respect from the oddsmakers.
I do maintain faith, however in Juan Antonio Pizzi’s ability
to craft a deft defensive strategy. That’s the only reason this line isn’t
higher. Take advantage should you feel differently.
THE
LINE: Russia +2 Goals
Friday, June 15th
Uruguay vs. Egypt
vs. 
Keeping careful tabs on the Mohammed Salah injury, and it
doesn’t look good. The Egyptian FA hasn’t released anything concrete
information and, honestly, who can blame them? To openly declare that the
talismanic lead striker won’t be available almost constitutes an admission of
outright defeat. All of us football enthusiast know that the Pharaohs will be
lost without their main man. Hence the secrecy.
The actual nature of the FC Liverpool striker’s injury
remains quite grave. It’s far too risky to place him on the pitch with a broken
collarbone, especially in what’s expected to be a fairly physical contest early
on. I’m thus forced to assume that he’s a no-go. In his absence Cuper will
shell up in his trademark pocket 4-5-1. Said seems the natural choice to move
up top. Doubtful he’ll factor in much.
Though Cuper does possess other offensive weapons, this
bookie doesn’t have much confidence that he’ll make an aggressive play; not
this early anyway. Every ounce of strategy must be expended on canceling out a high-octane
Uruguayan offense. Though Tabarez’s men are now older and less explosive,
they’re still tenacious enough to mount up an insurmountable lead in an
instant.
The unexpected last-minute drop of Federico Valverde did
influence my thoughts on Tabarez’s attacking intentions, but only slightly. It
might still be the case that he’s shoring up a boring midfield to focus on protection
first. That could lead to long stretches of midfield possession and ultimately
a nil-nil draw.
Overall I can't see a repeat of the Costa Rican rocking La
Celeste received in the opening Group Stage match of 2014.
Bookie forecasts a tight match with a solitary late-winner.
THE
LINE: Uruguay +1 Goal
Morocco vs. Iran
vs. 
A tactician’s delight in this one. Can’t wait to see the
lineups. Forecasters look first at the standard formations utilized by these
coaches over the course of their respective tenures. It all boils down to Renard’s
5-3-2 vs. Quieroz’s 4-4-2…in principle. Working with diagrams can obviously
only get an oddsmaker so far. So much will be revealed once we see the actual
deployment and begin to gain some sense of what the reality looks like.
Projecting matches on paper steers many forecasters toward a
slight edge for the Atlas Lions. This is mostly based upon expectations that
Mendyl and Dirar out-class in the head-to-head matchups. Bouhaddouz and El
Kaabi also win out over Gooch and Azmoun. On paper it all makes sense. Your
friendly bookie stated as much in the preview sections.
One can peer into one’s crystal ball with all the fixated
methodical absorption one wishes. This bookie knows because he’s already
foolishly done so. He’s pondered Fajr’s prospects against Shojaei, deliberated
over Saiss’s positioning, contemplated moving Dejagah over to central midfield,
and even tried to envision Renard’s use of En-Nesryi as a surprise trump card.
In the final analysis, attempting to peer into Herve
Renard’s mind turns out to be every bit as taxing on the soul as staring at the
solid face of Pierluigi Collina for four hours. Not a fun exercise. I earnestly
don’t recommend it.
AS is often the case, the solution was staring your friendly
bookie in the face the entire time, and it was far less frightening than the
feverish glare of Pierluigi Collina
I just don’t see much between these sides for whom a draw
will suffice quite satisfactorily.
They’ll tie!
THE
LINE: Pick em’
Portugal vs. Spain
vs. 
Dios Mio! As if there weren’t already enough uncertainties
surrounding the Spanish Side! We’ve all awoken to shocking news from the La
Roja Camp. Your friendly bookie awoke to no fewer than six texts from
completely stunned and astonished Syndicate Members. In an unprecedented move,
the Spanish FA has sacked Head Coach Julien Lopetegui less than twenty-four
hours before the start of the tournament. We’ve never seen something like this
from a European Powerhouse. The man who actually selected the squad and built
the strategy now disappears instantaneously in a puff of smoke. The players have
a scant 48 hours to adjust the plan. How in the hell is this going to work?
Everyone’s disowning the Spanish in droves. At late as last
night they were still a fashionable pick. Now their very onset odds have been
fully erased off of many a bookie’s blackboard. There haven’t been this many people abandoning
Spanish Ships since the fucking Armada. It’s absolute pandemonium. We all knew
they were vulnerable, but this news might turn the whole group on its head. Madre
Mia!
The news certainly makes our quest for the long sought after
memorable “Iberian Derby” more likely. As discussed at length in the preview
section, this will be the fourth time that these noisy neighbors have met in
Syndicate Lore. All previous matches have been disappointing to say the least.
When initially sitting down to handicap this fixture last night, your friendly
bookie foresaw another cramped and uncomfortable encounter that would possibly
produce two goals.
Not anymore. This one’s wide open. The megalomaniacal Diego
Costa will go nuts without anyone instructing him. He’ll attempt to do way too
much. Isco, previously the presumed center of the plan, is shit out of luck. I
expect the Portuguese to pounce on this confused piece of prey whilst they have
the chance.
Horrible move from the RFEF! This one could get uglier than
2014’s debut match against the Dutch!
The line goes up.
THE
LINE: Portugal +2 Goals
Saturday, June 16th
France vs. Australia
vs. 
Alright, Stateside Bettors. Let’s ensure you’ve got your
kickoff time straight. Five a.m. for those residing in the Central Time Zone.
Three a.m. for the partiers on the West Coast. Eek. Get up early for the show,
brothers. Cart your lazy hungover ass off of your stained mattress. Definitely
don’t want to miss out on this one. Ze Froggies are about to get busy…as they’re
known to do so well ; )
Snooze you lose. Ein Nickerchen bedeutet kein Fickerchen!
We have our first blowout. No contest. The Aussies are about
to get dismembered, just as they did against the Germans in the opening round
of 2010 and the Chileans in 2014. Syndicate fans familiar with my ire
concerning the valuable space these pesky Socceroos take up in our Summer
tournaments know how much I’ll enjoy this. Get them the hell out of here,
Frogsters! I’m counting on you.
Watched van Marwijk’s final squad selections with interest. He
did indeed decide to shake things up a bit by including Arzani and Petratos in
the last 23. Surprisingly enough he also dropped James Troisi, forcing me to
rethink his whole lineup/formation. All of this matters not a pair of fetid
dingo kidneys as they still don’t come anywhere close to stacking up well
against the French.
The only real question it hand is who will score the goals
for Les Bleus. Will Pogba grab the brace or will Mbappe get himself established?
Contributions from Dembele and Kante or Griezman and Lemar? If you’re sensing
some early Prop Bet Action my brothers, your senses do not falsely deceive. The
best I can do for now are some tantalizing 2 to 1 odds on an Mbappe Brace.
Write in with your own. Looking forward to reviewing them.
Bert van Marwijk may find a way to prove me wrong…or he may
end up just being Bert van Marwijk.
THE
LINE: France +3 Goals
Argentina vs. Iceland
vs. 
An outside chance we might see a slaughter here along the
lines of the match against Serbia & Montenegro in 2006. Yes, Vicey’s about
to talk about the “greatest World Cup Team Goal ever scored”. Still gushing
about it twelve long years later. It was just that awesome. Let’s revisit it:
Poor quality. YouTube did exist back, but FIFA was for too
draconian to realize what a tremendous asset it could be for the sport.
Anyways, count 26 perfect passes en-route to Herman Crespo’s sublime back heel
to Cambiasso in the 31st. That put the issue behold all doubt in
what turned into a 6-0- shellacking.
Something similar in the works? We’ll be taking a more
tempered approach for now, as Sampioli’s selections just haven’t convinced me
that they’ll come out with guns blazing.
An Argentine Eruption is in the works, just not yet. Even
though Manuel Lazini wasn’t a projected starter, he’ll be missed as a late
fresh-legged substitute
I still think they win comfortably as the Icelandic
collective begins to crumble.
THE LINE: Argentina +2 Goals
Peru vs. Denmark
vs. 
Very intriguing. Los Incas have license to overachieve, but
how will they fare against a tough opener featuring world class players.? The
big news out of the Peruvian Camp is that Paulo Guerrero has been reinstated.
That will provide the underdogs with a huge morale boost. It shifts the entire
dynamic. Originally I thought the Danes could easily do just enough to keep
things boring before prevailing late. Now they’ll be forced into fifth gear
early if they plan on keeping up with a revamped 4-4-2 that’ll have Guerrero,
Flores, Carrillo, and Cueva all chomping at the bit.
Syndicate diehards know that I expended no less than six
paragraphs talking myself into the Danes. Spent the necessary amount of time
trying to talk myself into a Danish victory here. Hareide’s team has been
forced into some reformatting of its own. A late injury to Niklas Bendtner,
something of a blessing in disguise, brings Kasper Dolberg into the mix. The
20-year-old Ajax Phenom may be just the shot in the arm this otherwise
predictable attack needs.
He’s a forward not unlike a younger Eriksen. The two might
complement one another well. Since word of his inclusion broke the Danes have
climbed up to three-goal-favorites in some books. One fancies the Danes to open
the floodgates just as they did against the Irish in the qualification
playoffs. They nearly did so in the most recent pre-tournament friendly vs.
Mexico.
I’m more subdued, but expect a fun match nevertheless. Such
an unexpectedly fantastic Saturday headliner. I’ll tip a draw in what feels
like a 2-2 thriller.
THE
LINE: Pick em’
Nigeria vs. Croatia
vs. 
Your “Super Saturday” a’int quite finished until you check
out our “Super Eagles”. The World Cup’s first four-match-day can be draining
and depleting, but you’ve got to find the strength to press on, just as your
friendly bookie did four years ago. Matchday Three is usually when WM-Fieber reaches
Fever Pitch. It all becomes real. The World gets set ablaze. We all find
ourselves caught up in a euphoric global trance.
Okay…some of us also pass out on the couch cradling our
cherished copy of “11 Freunde” ; )
Oh I want to hit my “UPSET ALERT” button so badly. I want to
see Musa and Ihenacho slicing through the defensive lines of the despises Slavs
like hot black butter-knives. Aaargh. Why not? Why can’t I? There has to be at
least one Cinderella in this tournament. We’ve sure to behold at least one
surprising upset in the opening round. Why not our “Super Eagles”. Why can’t I
set a sentimental line and just take the financial loss?
It all comes down to what a brutal first-round opponent the
Blazers are. Many of their stars have extensive experience in the Russian
Premiership. Also unsure if Rohr has a coherent arrangement at the back.
Watched Gernt Rohr’s final cutdown carefully. He kept Balongun, Trost-Ekong,
and Ebuehi dropping only Ola Aina. The defensive picture gets a little clearer,
but I still can’t shore it up.
The Nigerians attack can still catch fire at any moment, but
I don’t necessarily see them getting through Dejan Lovren and Verdan Corluka. I
reserve the right to roll this line as the match gets closer. Anything’s possible
in Kaliningrad. East Prussia can hardly be considered “home turf” for Eastern
Europeans. Shame the Germans won't be returning there for a match ; )
Honestly hope it’s a draw. No desire to see those flares.
Sadly, I believe we’ll see them once.
THE
LINE: Croatia +1 Goal
Sunday, June 17th
Costa Rica vs. Serbia
vs. 
We’ve discussed the “Slavic Stranglehold” at great
length....before the White Eagles blew past Bolivia 5-1 in their final
pre-tournament friendly. Your friendly bookie isn’t one to lend much credence
to meaningless matches, but I’ve seen what I needed to from Tadic, Kostic, and
Mitrovic. May not have seen much from Milankovic-Savic, but he remains my pick
for this tournament’s breakthrough player. Just have a feeling we’ll be seeing
a helluva lot of him soon.
The Ticos continue to flounder when facing quality
opposition. Fresh out of ideas in the land of “Pura Vida”. Even though their
system returns refined and their players return improved, they won’t be able to
get away with that preferred 5-3-2 against the Serbs. Oscar Ramirez will have
to try and beat them at their own game. The result could prove disastrous.
I actually don’t think it will. The Serbs have management
issues of their own and I’m simply not sure they’ll have enough support on the
flanks to run up the score. Should the Ticos exploit the left they can equalize
easily. A draw isn’t out of the question.
I’ll predict that we’ll see some flair, but not a huge win.
THE
LINE: Serbia +1 Goal
Deutschland vs. Mexico
vs. 
Matchday in the Fatherland…on Father’s Day no less! Here we
have a re-match of last Summer’s Semi-Finals. If you made it past the
riff-begetting factory that was my opening remarks on the German Group—a
well-placed tongue-in-cheek trap—you’ll know that I’ve already essentially
previewed this match with projected lineup selections from both Löw and Osorio.
I maintain that Osorio will essentially use this match as an
experimental forfeiture, keeping Chicharito back and deploying the dos Santos
brothers in midfield. No projected changes from Löw either. Kroos directs the
attack flanked by Brandt and Draxler. Khedira and Özil take defensive midfield.
No one exerts themselves too much.
As anxious as both trainers will be to get this one out of
the way, your friendly bookie will be even more relieved. Let’s get past the
jitters and speculation and on the road toward the Semi-Finals.
Mach’s nochmal, Jungs!
THE
LINE: Deutschland +2 Goals
Brazil vs. Switzerland
vs. 
A rollicking start won’t be so easy for many people’s
favorites. Tite will want to get them up and running fast, but the Swiss know
how to slow things down. Xhaka, Dzemali and Behrami will eat up traffic all
afternoon. Rodriguez, Schär, and Lichtsteiner all look great too. As predicted
in the Preview Section, kick-ass new centerback Nico Elvedi beat out Jonathan
Djorou for the last roster spot. The Swiss now sport one of the best back fours
in the whole competition. I’ve no idea why so many oddsmakers are tipping
Brazil for the Blowout.
I think it’ll be close. It might even be a draw if Tite’s
dumb enough to start Reanato Augusto over Firminho, and I’m hearing whispers to
that effect. Some also have Gabriel Jesus alone up front or Casemiro anchoring
a midfield 4-3-3. Ugh. Not liking the connotations of some of these
prognostication.
We’re beginning to get a little far out here, so much can
change over the course of the next four days. Get your wagers in early as this
line will most assuredly roll.
THE
LINE: Brazil +1 Goal
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
