Thursday, June 13, 2019

CA 2019--Round One

Servus Syndicate Members,

Your friendly neighborhood betting syndicate strays into new territory. 

A blockbuster Summer for the beautiful game carries on when the 46th Edition of South America’s continental championship kicks off in Brazil on Friday. 

As is the custom, all ten of the CONMEBOL Confederation countries will compete in a field that includes two invited countries from a separate region.

Footballing enthusiasts ordinarily need no added incentives to tune into this competition, but the South American Confederation went ahead and gave us one anyway. Following the success of the tournament’s 100th 16-team-anniversary-invitational (known as the Copa America Centenario in 2016), CONMENBOL announced that future versions would follow the same sixteen-team-format. 

Ordinarily, the two invited teams were traditionally Mexico and another country from the neighboring northern CONCACAF Confederation. After 2016, CONMEBOL announced ambitious plans to begin inviting teams from the Asian (AFC) confederation as well. Though plans for a sixteen-team-tournament were eventually scrapped, Japan and Qatar quickly confirmed their participation in the 2019 tournament. 

We thus behold a very unique version of this tournament; one in which Mexico will not participate for the first time since 1993. Football fans almost couldn’t have asked for a better script. For starters, Mexico will now send its top-tier squad to the CONCACAF Gold Cup, making that competition even more intriguing. 

Furthermore, Qatar unexpectedly captured the Asian continental championship in January behind an exciting and explosive side, all of whom will be coming to Brazil. My personal favorite to capture the crown is Uruguay, but Argentina and Brazil probably stand about an equal chance. Chile, Columbia, and (yes) Qatar serve as dark horses. 

Should be a fun one. I had hoped to confirm for the stateside audience whether Jorge Perez Navarro will be calling matches on the Spanish or English telecast this year. Sadly, there hasn't been time to find out. He’ll be somewhere worth finding. That’s all I now. For now he’s here as my guest to help me present both the onset betting odds and the lines.


CLEEEEEEAAAAN!! 

Group A (Brazil, Peru, Venezuela, Bolivia)

      

A Neymar-less Brazil should still be able to top their group. In actuality they might be slightly stronger without him. Los Incas of Peru stand as A Selecao’s only real challenger, though the Vinatinto of Venezuela ride high after recently upsetting the U.S. Men’s national football team.

Surprises are by no means expected here. As committed as the Peruvians may be to sending their Golden Generation off with a successful swan song, it doesn’t look as if they can compete with the hosts on a tactical level. 

 Brazil (Winning Odds—Straight Up) 

Gabriel Jesus received much domestic flak for his inability to make much of an impact in last Summer’s World Cup. Remarkable how little patience there can be for player development after the 2014 WM. 

Since then the Man City striker tallied six times in the intervening international friendlies, grabbing two braces in recent matches against Honduras and the Czech Republic. One can thus surmise that he’s settled comfortably into the role of lead attacker.  

Tite has mostly paired Everton’s Richarlison (Not to be confused with Gremio’s Everton) together with Jesus in a traditional 4-4-2 anchored by Barcelona’s Phillipe Coutinho and Liverpool’s Roberto Firminho. Neymar’s injury alters this constellation in a way that your friendly bookie finds advantageous. Whereas before Firminho and Coutinho were forced to share an axis, the inclusion of Willian now pushes a streaking Firminho further afield. 

It should of course be noted that Brazilians don’t keep the strictest tactics. Players are actively encouraged to consider their positioning flexible and secondary to the highly valued skills of improvisation. We nevertheless observed Coutinho in a mostly central role last Summer and the bookie sees no reason why this will change. 

An injury to Marcelo should mean that Alex Sandro will take over at left back. Dani Alves returns, forcing Fagner to slide in alongside Thiago Silva. Miranda gets relegated to a strong bench that also features Marquinhos, Casemiro, and Fillipe Luis. Paulinho, Renato Augusto, and Danilo no longer make the grade.

Bookie projects the much-anticipated debut of 22-year-old Ajax phenom David Neres Campos on the left wing. Keep an eye on the rising star. 

 Projecting the Brazilian Lineup (4-4-2) 

               Gabriel Jesus      Richarlison     
David Neres                               Roberto Firminho
                     P. Coutinho   Willian                  
Alex Sandro                                           Dani Alves                               
                        Fagner   Thiago Silva
                                 Alisson         

 Peru (Winning Odds—5 to 1) 

Ricardo Gareca’s men have had a rather successful year, cracking the World’s top twenty in some of the more formula based global rankings. They typically attain the knockouts in this tournament—last failing to advance out of the group in 1995—and can expect to do so here. One shouldn’t forget that Los Incas have placed third in the last two traditional versions of this tournament in 2011 and 2015. They also upset in Brazilians in 2016’s Centenaurio. 

Captain Paulo Guerrero, who many will recall spent most of 2018 embroiled in a doping scandal, returns for one last hurrah. Carlos Zambrano appears fit and ready to reprise his role in defense.  An injury to Pedro Aquino shouldn’t matter much as the bookie thinks Renato Tapia will work just fine. Andy Polo and Raul Ruidiaz are the new faces potentially serving as game changers off the bench. 

In general, we’re dealing with a veteran side well past their peak. In this tournament a predictable team can still have a predictable path to the knockouts. 

 Projecting the Peruvian Lineup (4-2-3-1) 

                          Paulo Guerrero
Edison Flores   Christian Cueva    Andre Carillo                 
           Yoshimar Yotun   Renato Tapia 
Miguel Trauco                               Luis Advincula             
           Carlos Zambrano Anderson Santamria
                           Pedro Gallese

 Venezuela (Winning Odds 8 to 1)  

Including last weekend’s defeat of the U.S., La Vinotinto have now defeated three high-profile nations in friendlies this year. Victories against Argentina and the U.A.E. should be taken with the proverbial grain of salt, however, as they’ve also lost to the Basque and Catalan teams during a Spanish regional tour. 

The player recognizeable to most will be West Bromwich Albion striker Salomon Rondon, fresh off a twelve-goal campaign on loan at Newcastle. 31-year-old captain Thomas Rincon has ten years of experience playing in the German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A. Defensive captain Jhon Chancellor had a briefer stay in the Spanish Primera, but remains a solid player that fewer may have heard of. 

A sprinkling of European second league and MLS players complete the strongest roster this program has put together in many years. That may prove enough to get them through to the knockouts, but it’s difficult to see them advancing further.

 Projecting the Venezuelan Lineup (4-5-1) 

                           Salomon Rondon
Yeferson Soteldo  Josef Martinez    Jhon Murillo                   
              Thomas Rincon   Juan Pablo Anor
 Luis Mago                                      Roberto Rosales 
                  Jhon Chancellor  Rolf Feltscher
                             Wuilker Farinez

 Bolivia (Winning Odds—15 to 1) 

La Verde are your first bottom dwellers. We won’t even bother to project a lineup. True, they did attain the knockouts in 2015. That was a very different team in a group with awful Mexican and Ecuadorian sides. Even that incarnation was pretty shitty. Marcelo Martins is the only goalscorer who returns from that side, and he was a full six years removed from his relevance.

Vicey’s Fearless Group Projection (2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)

 1) Brazil 
 2) Peru
 3) Venezuela 
 4) Bolivia

Quarterfinal Odds

 Brazil (NO BETS) 
 Peru (NO BETS)
 Venezuela (Straight Up) 
 Bolivia (5 to 1)

Semifinals Odds

 Brazil (NO BETS) 
 Peru (3 to 1)
 Venezuela (4 to 1) 
 Bolivia (12 to 1)

Group A—Round One Fixtures

Friday, June 14th  

Brazil vs. Bolivia

 vs. 

Here we’ll get a result that Clovis Acosta Fernandez will smile down on from above….if there were actually anything up there beyond the sky. Tune in for a big-time debut from the hosts. If anything this line is low.

THE LINE: Brazil +3 Goals

Saturday, June 15th   

Venezuela vs. Peru

 vs. 

Never seen Venezuela play before? Prepare to feast your eyes upon some of the fugliest dark chesnut maroon unis you’ve ever seen. They’re even worse than the Qatari Crimsons. Probably in for some pretty ugly football as well. Never a better time to switch over to the girls.

THE LINE: Peru +1 Goal

Group B (Argentina, Qatar, Columbia, Paraguay)

      

Here’s your “Group of Death”, or at least it would be if all three major programs can’t easily advance in a twelve team tournament. The Argentine program continues to reel under an inexperienced manager and a youth program that has been sputtering for years. A Cafeteros side now under the tutelage of legendary manager Carlos Queiroz may knock them off here. 2019 Asian Continental Champions Qatar have also brought their best team with them. 

For now, the bookie feels La Albiceleste can top the group even if they only have a three-man team consisting of Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, and Angel Di Maria. I can build a decent enough lineup using the players available to see them through. 

 Argentina (Winning Odds—Straight Up) 

The AFA still hasn’t completed their search for a higher profile trainer since sacking the totally schizophrenic and always overrated Jorge Sampaoli after last Summer’s debacle. Interim coach Lionel Scaloni simply got an extension. They’ve stuck with him by default. If Scaloni can’t make it happen here it’s time to consider bringing a foreign coach for the first time ever. Sorry, mates. Those half-Italians they once turned to don’t count.

The long silverware drought continues for La Albiceleste. It’s now been a full 26 years since the once proud program with two World Championship Stars on their crest last won a major tournament. Lionel Messi was only five-years-old when they last won this tournament in 1993! The country’s sainted-striker has led the program to two Olympic gold medals over a decade ago, but he’s yet to deliver goods truly desired by a long-suffering fan-base.

For some reason Paulo Dybala still hasn’t cracked the starting XI. Bookie confesses he has no answers as to why this is so. The Juventus-Turin striker just completed another outstanding season in the Serie A, yet has only been capped thrice in a handful of matches since logging an inexplicably paltry amound of minutes in Russia. 

Might be a matter of his multinational Polish heritage. Yes, your friendly bookie just went there. Argentines don’t like dual nationals on their team. After absorbing a wave of….er….“post-war immigrants” in the 1940s and 50s, it’s rather understandable that they’re not necessarily the most trusting of foreigners.

One can still build a strong lineup without Dybala. Hell, one would have to work pretty damn hard to come up with worse arrangements that Sampaoli did last Summer. the bookie shall never forget that insipid 3-4-3 against Croatia in the second round. Hands down one of the stupidest fucking formations I’ve ever seen. A drunk emu could have constructed something better.

I Had a bit of difficulty finding a right back and left central midfielder, but I assembled something workable. Franco Armani takes over in goal for the pitched Willy Cabellero. Keep an eye on that decision. It’ll either prove ingenious or go down in history as one of the most boneheaded moves ever made by a big-time program. 

 Projecting the Argentine Lineup (4-4-2) 

        Sergio Aguero    Angel Di Maria        
 Leandro Paredes                  Lionel Messi
       Roberto Pereya      Marcos Acuna                          
Nicolas Tagliafico               Ramiro F. Mori                                                                 
         Nicolas Otamendi  Juan Foyth
                       Franco Armani      

 Qatar (Winning Odds—3 to 1) 

If you happened to be one of those Syndicate members who sat out the Asian Continental Championship, let’s fill you in a bit on the champions. The hosts of the 2022 World Cup have built themselves a fine team. Catalan coach Feliz Sanchez Bas has been recruiting and grooming a bunch of immensely talented prospects through his youth program since 2013. 

Among these are 2018 Asian footballer of year Abdelkarim Hassan, lightning quick Villareal winger Akram Afif, and versatile defender Bassam Al-Rawi. Then there’s Almoez Abdullah Ali, a Sudanese superstud who smashed home eight goals in the recent continental championship, breaking a 23-year-old record for the most goals scored in the competition. Christ, did he ever put on a show. A ghost-foul even robbed him of another one. Factor in a couple of missed tap-ins and he could have scored eleven!

Sanchez Bas bucks the trends of the non-CONMEBOL teams invited to this tournament by bringing the big guns with him. The bookie who couldn’t bring himself to tip this team until the semi-finals in our most recent chapter now finds himself completely on board. We’re forecasting a massive upset here by selecting them to finish second in this group. The FIFA Rankings show this team an absurdly little amount of love even after their amazing run to the title

Truly a remarkable team…and don’t tell me they can’t handle the heat!

 Projecting the Qatari Lineup (4-2-3-1) 

                         Almoez Abdullah Ali
 Akram Afif         Boualem Khouki    Hassan Al-Haydos                       
               Abdulaziz Hatem   Karim Boudiaf  
 Abdelkarim Hassan                           Pedro Miguel            
                 Tarek Salman  Bassam Al-Rawi
                                Saad Al Sheeb

 Colombia (Winning Odds—3 to 1) 

Just once your friendly bookie would like to see this side enter a tournament fully fit and healthy. Whether it was Radamel “El-Tigre” Falcao missing out on the 2014 or James Rodriguez’s recurring injury woes torpedoing their chances last Summer, we can never seem to get a look at how good Los Caferteros could be. James is hurt again. Juan Fernando Quintero has been ruled out. Juan Cuadrado sees less playing time since Cristiano Ronaldo’s arrival at Juventus. It’s always something with this team. 

The arrival of Potuguese manager Carlos Quieroz, considered by many including this bookie to be one of the game’s best tactical geniuses, will yield results only in the long-term. His style differs so drastically from that of his predecessor Jose Pekerman, that one cannot presage a smooth transition here. 

We’ve also got serious issues on the left side. Christian Borja Gonzalez is the best player I can find to plug into the left back position, and he’s only been capped thrice. Bournemoth’s Jefferson Lerma as the pick to buttress James also doesn’t inspire confidence.  

One generally shouldn't bet against Quieroz, but this team is strewn with too many question marks. Colombia enthusiasts might prefer to pop in one of their old Rene Higuita "kung-fu-keeper" highlights tapes. 

 Projecting the Columbian Lineup (4-2-3-1) 

                                 Radamel Falcao
  James Rodriguez    Carlos Sanchez    Juan Cuardado                
             Jefferson Lerma               Wilmar Barrios
  Cristian Borja                                       Santiago Arias
                         Yerry Mina   Davidson Sanchez
                                  David Ospinna 

 Paraguay (Winning Odds—10 to 1) 

Anyone up for some Fernando Lugo jokes? Oh man that takes us back quite a ways in Syndicate Lore. We used to talk about La Albiroja all the time in this Sportsbook. They used to qualify for the World Cup all of the time. A regular fixture in the global tournament from 1998 through 2010, they made the knockouts in all but one tournament. They even made it to the Quarterfinals in 2010. Remember guys?

Yeah..we’re not discussing them here. Zero chance they get out of this group. Oscar Cardozo is still around somehow, but that’s about all I care to report on. For old time’s sake we’ll close this non-analysis by saying that Fernando Lugo managed to impregnate two underage girls in the time it took you to read it.

Vicey’s Fearless Group Projection (4 to 1 Odds for Bookie)

 1) Argentina  
 2) Qatar
 3) Colombia 
 4) Paraguay

Quarterfinal Odds

 Argentina (NO BETS) 
 Qatar (NO BETS)
 Columbia (NO BETS) 
 Paraguay (3 to 1)

Semifinals Odds

 Argentina (Straight Up) 
 Qatar (Straight Up)
 Columbia (Straight Up)
 Paraguay (7 to 1)

Group B—Round One Fixtures

Saturday, June 15th   

Argentina vs. Colombia

 vs. 

Definitely one of the weekend’s highlights…or maybe Queiroz ruins it all by forgetting that he’s no longer managing the Iranians. This bookie will be able to tell where it’s headed within the first twenty minutes. Hell, all I really need is the team sheet. Somehow I don’t think Quieroz gets off to a flying start yet. 

Messi breaks through with a late goal.

THE LINE: Argentina +1 Goal

Sunday, June 16th   

Paraguay vs. Qatar

 vs. 

No way Almoez Ali can pick up where he left off…or can he? Abdulkarim Hassan will surely be eager to make amends for his rather disappointing tourney. Khouki, Afif, and Al-Haydos might have a field day as well. 

THE LINE: Qatar +2 Goals 

Group C (Uruguay, Chile, Japan, Ecuador)

      

And this would be your “Group of Life.” Oscar Tabarez and his highly potent Uruguayan 4-4-2 didn’t have the greatest round of friendlies to close out 2018, but Luis Suarz and Edinson Cavani are in absolute electric form. Christhain Stuani has been on fire for both club and country, suggesting we might even see a triple-headed monster of a 4-3-3. 

Two-time defending continental champions appear unlikely to repeat, but do tote with them Charles Aranguiz, Arturo Vidal, and Alexis Sanchez.  Japanese manager Hajime Moriyasu arrives in Brazil with an experimental youth squad which actually looks fairly decent on paper. Ecuador’s La Tri are most definitely the bottom feeders, but it isn’t inconceivable that they could pull off some surprises here. 

 Uruguay (Winning Odds—Straight Up) 

Bookie’s tip to capture the crown. The three fixtures Oscar Tabarez’s men have won on the bounce weren’t against the highest caliber opponents, but they were enough to get this team’s key players rolling. We can likely expect his trademark 4-4-2, but I won’t rule out either the above mentioned 4-3-3 or the innovative 3-5-2 we saw in the final group stage match against Russia. 

There exist still more possibilities. Maxi Gomez’s recent form could even produce a blockbuster 4-2-4. Bookie won’t rule out a frontal deployment for either Jonathan Rodriguez or Federico Valverde. Lucas Torreira likes owns the right wing, but Sebastian Coates can play up there as well. 

Perhaps we should leave it there. As you can surely tell, your friendly bookie whipped himself into something of a fiendish frenzy building this team’s lineup. I confidently predict they shall capture their fifth continental crown. Unlike the 2018 incarnation, this version of the team needn’t be derailed by an injury to a key player. 

Consider for a moment how deep they could have gone in last year’s World Cup had it not been for Cavani’s untimely fall. They’ll make amends here. 

 Projecting the Uruguayan Lineup (4-4-2) 

            Edinson Cavani  Luis Suarez    
 Maxi Gomez                        Lucas Torreira
            Nicols Lodeiro   Cristhain Stuani               
  Diego Laxalt                       Sebastian Coates                                                               
              Diego Godin  Martin Caceres
                       Fernando Muslera      

 Chile (Winning Odds—3 to 1) 

La Roja Americana return after missing out on last Summer’s festivities. I’m very much looking forward to seeing them and their fans again. Such a proud footballing tradition in this country, which actually won the inaugural competition back in 1916. Who can forget that call when they captured the Centenario? Chile! Cabron! Saluda campeon. The back-to-back defending champs cannot help but enter the tournament with a wide red target hanging from their necks.

Prospects for a three-peat are somewhat dampened when one considers the fact that an aging group of players have had difficulty getting themselves organized under a new coach. Alexis Sanchez and Arturo Vidal retain their old roles and still put up serviceable numbers. Most of the midfield, however, seems a bit out of sorts, to the point that Jose Fuenzalida is projected to start on the right flank.

Following the failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, the Chilean FA brought in bureaucratic former Honduras and Ecuador manager Reinaldo Rueda. I’ve seen him utilize multiple formations, but I think he’s partial to a 4-1-3-2 that doesn’t really make the best use of Sanchez or Aranguiz. The front is simply too crowded.   

As a general assessment, bookie simply thinks these wingers are too old. With no speed on the flanks, there’s little chance of a repeat. They’ll still place second in this group, but a Quarterfinal elimination seems a plausible prognostication.

 Projecting the Chilean Lineup (4-1-3-2) 

                Alexis Sanchez      Eduardo Vargas               
 Charles Aranguiz  Pablo Hernandez  Jose Fuenzalida                        
                                  Arturo Vidal
Jean Beausejour                                     Mauricio Isla             
                       Gonzalo Jara   Gary Medel         
                                  Gabriel Arias

 Japan (Winning Odds—6 to 1) 

Hajime Moriyasu earned much praise for his patient tinkering in January’s improbable run to the Asian Continental Championship final. The Japanese manager deployed his entire non-goalkeeping roster over the course of the tournament, and kept everyone guessing by never using the same striking configuration in any of seven matches. His lineup here remains anyone’s guess.

If you happen to be looking for familiar faces you’ll have to look elsewhere. The list of well-known names left behind remains too long to elucidate. It’s far easier to name the three veterans Moriyasu has brought along: striker Shinji Okazaki, midfielder Gaku Shibasaki, and keeper Eiji Kawashima. 20-year-old phenom and scorer of that memorable goal against the Saudis in the 2019 AFC Round of 16 is the only other player even international football aficionados will recognize. A full sixteen players haven’t even received one solitary cap for the senior side. 

This incarnation of the Samurai Blue may very well finish at the bottom of the group. Bookie places them third by virtue of the facts that the El Tri are, in my estimation, quite torrid. Moreover, a group of eager greenhorns gifted a wonderful opportunity to break into the team will probably play above their talent level. 

A huge preponderance of centerbacks on this side. It reminds one of the Germans ahead of the 2014 WM.

 Projecting the Japanese Lineup (4-2-3-1) 

                        Shinji Okazaki
 Ayase Ueda       Tatsuya Ito   Yuta Nakayama                                       
           Gaku Shibasaki     Shoya Nakajima 
 Ko Itakura                                 Daki Suga 
          Takehiro Tomiyasu Naomichi Ueda  
                         Eiji Kawashima

 Ecuador (Winning Odds—6 to 1) 

La Tri, World Cup participants in 2002, 2006, and 2014, have mostly been in free-fall since the departure of current Chile manager Reinaldo Rueda after the 2014 tournament. While they may be a bit better than their current FIFA ranking indicates, there aren’t any noteworthy players on this squad other than Antonio Valencia and Enner Valencia, both of whom are well past their prime. Valencia has really struggled with injury and form at Old Trafford. Barring some miracle, he’ll be released from his contact this Summer.

Whether they can place third in this group is entirely contingent on what this mystery Japanese squad will look like. 

Vicey’s Fearless Group Projection (2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)

 1) Uruguay  
 2) Chile
 3) Japan  
 4) Ecuador


Quarterfinal Odds

 Uruguay (NO BETS) 
 Chile (NO BETS)
 Japan (2 to 1) 
 Ecuador (2 to 1)

Semifinals Odds

 Uruguay (Straight Up)
 Chile (Straight Up)
 Japan (4 to 1) 
 Ecuador (4 to 1)

Group C—Round One Fixtures

Sunday, June 16th   

Uruguay vs. Ecuador

 vs. 

This one should prove beyond a reasonable doubt just how listless this version of Ecuador is. Herman Dario Gomez’s men even lost to the USMNT back in March. Experience the splendor of Tabarez’s Golden Generation.

THE LINE: Uruguay +3 Goals

Monday, June 17th   

Japan vs. Chile

 vs. 

Speaking of getting a good look at the future, your friendly bookie will really be looking forward to this one. Copious notes shall be in order as we get a splendid view at the next generation of Samurai Blue. They’ll likely lose, but bookie won’t rule out a draw. In fact, I’ll give you one. Let’s make it a pick

THE LINE: Pick em’

GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS