Servus Syndicate Members,
Africa enters the “Blitz Phase”. Bookie gushes. The inaugural edition of a 24-team Summer Africa Cup of nations has absolutely been everything this football fan had hoped it would be.
At least that’s what the bookie wrote before sitting through three consecutive goalless draws on the same day the German women were eliminated. Hells bells.
The final day of Round Two doused the bookie in more flammable misery before he could even locate a match with which to self-immolate. Could have done without this lull. Hopefully it won’t carry on into tomorrow.
Let’s focus on the positive. The real highlight of the second round had to be the Grand East African Derby. It lived up to every ounce of hype. Mass hysteria from the fans as the national anthems were belted out. Five fantastic goals between the two sides. Every last player sprinted from start to finish. One had the impression they would rather drop dead of exhaustion than be accused of giving 99.98% for a single second against their Bantu brethren.
In the end the Kenyans prevailed 3-2 over the bookie’s beloved Tanzania, and the Taifa Stars had every reason to feel hard done by. Such a result, which led to them being the first team officially eliminated from the tournament, was nowhere near befitting of the effort they put forth.
The Harambee Stars, in particular Michael Olunga, must count their blessings. His equalizer in the 39th, acrobatic as the finish might have been, came courtesy of that freakish deflection off Erasto Nyoni’s head. How in the hell he tucked in that winner in the 80th is beyond me. The keeper’s post positioning was perfect. What the fuck?
Tanzanian captain Mbwana Samatta, by contrast, can hold his head high. Both Taifa Stars goals were a direct result of his brilliance. He serves as guest this evening.
Mungu ibariki Afrika!
Mungu Ibariki Tanzania na watu wake!
Sunday, June 30th
Group B Final Kickoff @ 18:00 (UTC +2)
Much remains possible in the tournament’s “Group of Life”. The upstart Malagasy can still top the group if this Super Eagles side doesn’t get into gear. Prospects for the Guineans can be fairly described as sanguine, though one shouldn’t discount the Burundians after another solid match.
At a certain point one must assume that the Barea will come crashing back down to earth. Much of it comes down to Gernot Rohr’s lineup selection in a match he doesn’t necessarily have to win. It might behoove him to allow the islanders to steal a point and in so doing eliminate another West African powerhouse.
Nigeria vs. Madagascar
vs.
It appears Rohr can rest most of the starters and play for the win at the same time. That doesn’t mean he will of course. We’ll have a glimpse at our beloved Super Eagles and assess their unfolding lineup.
S.S.S. Tactical Breakdown Lineup—Nigeria—PROJECTED (4-5-1) (6/19/2019)
Odion Ighalo
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Moses Simon Alex Iwobi Ahmed Musa
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John Obi Mikel Oghenekaro Etebo
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Leon Balogun Sehu Abdullahi
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William Trost-Ekong Kenneth Omerou
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Ikechukwu Ezenwa
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Lineup—Nigeria—Match One (4-5-1) (6/22/2019)
Paul Onuachu
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Alex Iwobi S. Chukwueze John Obi Mikel
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Wilfred Ndidi Oghenekaro Etebo
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Ola Aina Sehu Abdullahi
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William Troost-Ekong Kenneth Omerou
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Daniel Akpeyi
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A late-first-half-injury to Sehu Abdullahi necessitated many tactical shifts. Once Chidozie Awaziem came on, it looked like Trost-Ekong swung out to the left fullback position and Ola Aina moved up into the midfield. Bookie has no real criticism for the work of the defensive line, but central midfield turned into a clogged mess. Musa’s introduction in the 58thdidn’t help matters. Iwobi didn’t really maintain his positioning assignment. Plenty of sleepy stretches from this crew. We witnessed better in the second match.
Lineup—Nigeria—Match Two (4-5-1) (6/26/2019)
Odion Ighalo
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Moses Simon Alex Iwobi Ahmed Musa
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Wilfred Ndidi Oghenekaro Etebo
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Ola Aina Leon Balogun
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William Troost-Ekong Kenneth Omerou
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Daniel Akpeyi
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Much better. Bookie loves it when coaches fall back in line with his original projection. That’s the second axis that we need to see. Excellent rotation from Iwobi, Musa, and Simon as well. They did great trading position on the break. Musa in particular had some great ideas.
Bookie sees Rohr sitting Musa and Etebo in the final match as both are on yellows. Samuel Kalu and John Obi Mikel are the projected replacements. We might see Henry Onyekuru too. All of that still adds up to a strong team and a high line. Go on and soar, Eagles.
THE LINE: Nigeria +2 Goals
Guinea vs. Burundi
vs.
Perhaps my favorite part of the Burundi vs. Madagascar match was watching Said Berahino’s sorry ass getting pulled in the 61st. The big bad boy simply wasn’t producing. Oliver Niyungeko deserves praise for yanking the sacred cow. It even gave the team a boost.
Could see an upset here, but I think Naby Keita is heating up. We should see something memorable from him here as the National Elephants fight for their lives to get second-place seeding. With a little unintentional help from the Nigerians, I think they pull it off.
THE LINE: Guinea +2 Goals
Initial Group Projection (6/19/2019)
1) Nigeria 2) Guinea 3) Madagascar 4) Burundi
Final Group Projection (6/29/2019)
(2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Nigeria 2) Guinea 3) Madagascar 4) Burundi
Group A Final Kickoff @ 18:00 (UTC +2)
Somehow the DRC Leopards are still alive. A minus-four-goal-differential, however, means that their chances of escaping the group remain on life support. The tournament’s biggest flops thus far must fight hard to win three points AND bulge the back of the net at least thrice.
It’s not looking very hopeful for Ibenge & Co as the Zimbabwean Warriors are far from pushovers. Javier Aguirre’s pharaohs are on cruise control. They shouldn’t have to clear very high hurdles to finish atop the group here.
Egypt vs. Uganda
vs.
A very nice tactical arrangement from the hosts in the second group-stage-match. Salah went out to the right wing, Mahmoud Hassan (“Trezeguet”) moved back over to the left, and Marwan Mohsen took the lead. I really like how the central vertical axis works. Abdallah El Said, Mohamed Elneny, and Tarek Hamed form a ramrod spine in what sometimes looks like a consolidated 4-1-2-3.
Ordinarily your friendly bookie has few kind words for a compact attack. This one happens to work very well as it features quick and decisive players. Sadly, Aguirre won’t showcase it again here as all he needs is an unspectacular victory. It’ll prove fun to watch later on.
As impressive as the Cranes have been, they’re pretty weak on the left. Salah exploits early and then everyone packs it in for the day.
THE LINE: Egypt +1 Goal
Zimbabwe vs. Congo DR
vs.
Do or die time for the tournament’s biggest disappointments. They have the talent and aren’t lacking in class either. The Leopards know what they’ve done and even issued a public apology to their fans. Bookie loves it.
Bolasie, Bolingi, and Bakumbu all start in a not-at-all veiled 4-3-3. We get some early goals in an exciting match. At the end of the day it shall prove insufficient, but they will go hard and avenge their recent defeat to the Warriors in qualifying.
THE LINE: Congo DR +2 Goals
Initial Group Projection (6/19/2019)
1) Egypt 2) Congo DR 3) Zimbabwe 4) Uganda
Final Group Projection (6/29/2019)
(2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Egypt 2) Uganda 3) Congo DR 4) Zimbabwe
Monday, July 1st
Group D Final Kickoff @ 18:00 (UTC +2)
All teams still very much in it as we check in with the “Group of Death”. Seeding matters immensely in one of those unfortunate ways. The Group winners will receive a softer Round-of-16 opponent, but must then contend with a potential Quarterfinal clash with the high-flying hosts.
It’s doubtful a competitor like Herve Renard would outright throw a match, but he will rest some of his starters knowing that advancement has already been secured. This means an improving Bafana squad might actually push Cote d’Ivoire for second place.
Bookie doesn’t quite see the shock result coming as the South Africans are, in his opinion, a few years away from getting much of anywhere.
Morocco vs. South Africa
vs.
Renard’s ingenious tactics never disappoint. I don’t know if there is another manager who could build an explosive attack-minded 4-5-1. In a massive write-up detailing the undeniable strength of the Atlas Lions when introducing the first round, I don’t believe I even mentioned Youssef En-Nesyri. He did score in qualifying twice, but it didn’t appear likely that he could push all the other stars out of a lead striking deployment.
Ziyech and Amrabat seem to have a very good connection with him despite their different styles and leagues. Boussoufa and Belhanda really look comfortable behind him regulating the flow. It seems Renard can do no wrong, except when he’s asked about his former coaching assignments at the press conference. That was weird. It’s as if he downed a bottle of Nyquil when no one was looking.
Difficult to know what to expect from the Frenchman in his final group stage encounter, but whatever the constellation happens to be I think they can still beat Baxter’s Bafana. We saw some improved play, but the bookie is far from sold. They managed some fluid build-ups in attack, but my first real look at Percy Tau revealed him to be pretty lame. I just don’t think they have the talent in the final third.
If the South Africans accomplish anything here it will be a low scoreline.
THE LINE: Morocco +1 Goal
Cote d’Ivoire vs. Namibia
vs.
No need to press the Elephant panic button just yet as there remain plenty of encouraging signs. Despite the fact that Ibrahim Kamara didn’t really select an intelligent lineup, Jean Michael Seri was a bit of a bust as anchor, Gradel, Pepe, Aurier, Kessie, Kannon, and Kodjia all dipped in form…well there actually may be more discouraging signs than encouraging ones.
I still think the team put together some quality pace in the midfield over the course of the first half hour. They just wilted in the face of the well-designed Moroccan passing scheme. Can’t give them a complete pass here as there were some serious fitness issues on display for the final two-thirds of the match. Something’s not right with their training regimen. Bookie can tell. There’s no other reasonable explanation for such widespread dropping.
They’ll win here of course, but a deep tournament run suddenly looks highly doubtful.
THE LINE: Cote d’Ivoire +1 Goal
Initial Group Projection (6/19/2019)
1) Morocco 2) Cote d’Ivoire 3) South Africa 4) Namibia
Final Group Projection (6/29/2019)
(Straight Up Odds for Bookie)
1) Morocco 2) Cote d’Ivoire 3) South Africa 4) Namibia
Group C Final Kickoff @ 21:00 (UTC +2)
As you all well know, the bookie’s heart and head can sometimes jostle for position when it comes to forecasting. Sometimes they work in heuristic close-circuited loop-de-loops, as was the case when initially projecting this group. Circuitous logic notwithstanding, the original tips were not all that far off. Had a few things broken the other way, we might have seen it fall exactly as I had envisioned.
Decide for yourselves if the final projection constitutes a heartfelt pick. There’s rationale galore down below, but the heart is not immune to dialectical persuasion.
Senegal vs. Kenya
vs.
Where did it all go wrong for the lauded-Lions in their match against Algeria? For starters, Sadio Mane definitely should have been awarded a penalty following that flagrant double-takedown in the box. In a brutally physical match, the Desert Foxes engaged in some really dirty play. They also benefitted from a few lucky bounces.
Bookie has studied Cisse’s tactics in the second match and finds no real fault with them. Keita Balde played a bit far back and Salif Sane probably should have started. Other than that, the Senegalese manager was spot on with the 4-4-2. No sense in blaming the defense for that egregious breach late in the first half. The Algerians cheated by taking a direct free kick when the ball was still rolling.
Not too many glowing positives to report upon when discussing the Harembee stars. Their second-group-stage encounter was simply a weird and wild affair that saw goal-scoring opportunities emerge from more unconventional circumstances. Bookie still can’t believe his eyes when reviewing the game-winning goal. That was pure luck. The keeper had his left post expertly covered. No clue how that went it.
The Kenyans are a weak side. The selected favorites regroup here and run roughshod.
THE LINE: Senegal +1 Goal
Tanzania vs. Algeria
vs.
Really like what I saw from Emmanuel Emenike’s Taifa Stars in the East African Rivalry match. They certainly deserved better than the fate of being the first team to officially be eliminated. Mbwana Samatta exemplifies true footballing leadership with his play. Marvelous hustle from him for the full 90-plus. He just wouldn’t quit. Loved what I saw from Msuva and Kamagi too.
Oh how nice it would be to see them go out with a bang here, but my cherished Tanzanians are surely too mentally and physically depleted to furnish us with a surprise here. Every last player left the pitch drenched in sweat on Thursday evening. Some couldn’t bring themselves to even get up at all. Ulimwengu found himself paralyzed with cramps before his substitution.
Bravo, Taifa Stars. It shall be the bookie’s great pleasure to watch you one final time here....even if, as predicted, the North Africans will dismantle you.
THE LINE: Algeria +2 Goals
Initial Group Projection (6/19/2019)
1) Senegal 2) Algeria 3) Tanzania 4) Kenya
Final Group Projection (6/29/2019)
(3 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Algeria 2) Senegal 3) Kenya 4) Tanzania
Tuesday, July 2nd
Group F Final Kickoff @ 18:00 (UTC +2)
The disappointing 2017-quarterfinal-rematch between Cameroon and Ghana at the very least made this group’s constellation more interesting. Any one of the four teams can still top this group. It looks as if the Indomitables are in the driver’s seat, but they only managed to drive into a concrete wall today.
Should the minnow countries predictably collapse after less than 72 hours of rest, everything should fall as it should here. Squad rotation will prove vital for those teams harshly stuck with this group’s brutal entry into the “Blitz Phase”.
Cameroon vs. Benin
vs.
We’ll continue in the vein of assessing Africa’s great “Clarence Seedorf/Patrick Kluivert Experiment”. The Dutchmen radically altered their lineup in the second group stage match, perhaps in anticipation of the tight turnaround heading into the third round. Karl Toko Ekambi started alone up front, buttressed by Ambroise Oyongo and Clinton N’Jie in what looked like a 4-5-1.
Bookie again observed rotation with Christian Bassogog, who had started out on the wing. They re-grouped into a 4-3-3 once Chuopo-Moting and Stephane Bahoken came in on a double substitution in the 74th. At times they looked dangerous. Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa surprised with a truly special match. He directed traffic very adroitly whenever paired with Georges Mandjeck on the second axis.
Overall, the Dutch Duo appear to have a solid understanding of tournament tactics. Bookie wonders if they’ll engage in yet more tinkering or simply start an entirely new XI against the Squirrels.
With a draw not good enough to secure first place, I think they’ll mostly roll with the A-team. The Squirrels will come close to securing a draw, but will fall down late.
THE LINE: Cameroon +1 Goal
Ghana vs. Guinea-Bissau
vs.
As far as the bookie can tell, Christian Atsu’s early injury will sideline him for the rest of the tournament. Repairing an already disjointed lineup proves a very difficult task. James Kwesi Appiah did give Kwadwo Asamoah the shot against Cameroon, but it’s fair to say he was a total flop. Asamoah Gyan and Jonathan Mensah, two players who were actually out of the call up pool and only got roster spots after late injuries, haven’t looked good at all. They could really use Thomas Agyepong back, but it doesn’t appear he’ll recover in time.
All of these injuries may enable some new blood to step in just in time to make a statement. Samuel Owusu’s work in relief was serviceable. Samuel Owusu wasn’t half bad before the Boye send-off necessitated his own tactical substitution in the opening match. Caleb Ekuban, an Italian-born striker who has scored twice in as many caps, hasn’t debuted yet. He’s been in good club form as of late.
One way or another, they simply have to come alive here. John Boye’s return ought to stabilize matters coming out of the back. Fans of the Black Stars, myself included, should have plenty to cheer about in this one. If the Ayew brothers try to monopolize matters again, bookie will be right fucking pissed.
THE LINE: Ghana +2 Goals
Initial Group Projection (6/19/2019)
1) Cameroon 2) Ghana 3) Benin 4) Guinea-Bissau
Final Group Projection (6/29/2019)
(3 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Cameroon 2) Ghana 3) Benin 4) Guinea-Bissau
Group E Final Kickoff @ 21:00 (UTC +2)
And to think the bookie had Group B selected as the weakest group. With the exception of Les Aigles and their one-two-Adama-Traore punch, all of these teams are ghastly. Bookie now officially sells the Tunisians. They’re advancing to the knockouts, but there’s no way they’re getting much further. Hell with that Mulligan.
The Angolan Antelopes spoiled what had been a tournament free of goalless draws by spurning a bunch of wide open chances in front of the net. Ghana-Cameroon and Benin-Guinea Bissau followed suit. We had three goalless draws in one day! It’s all the Angolans and their shitty Serbian coach’s fault, or so the bookie says. Serbs make for an easy target.
Tunisia vs. Mauritania
vs.
A more traditional approach on display from Alain Giresse’s Eagles of Carthage in the second group stage match against Mali. Oussama Haddadi shifted back to the left back position, giving the Tunisians a four-man-defensive within a standard 4-4-2. Youssef Mskani was dropped entirely. It was clear that Naim Sliti was meant to fulfill his role.
Harumph. Bookie still saw very little beyond a total confusion for long stretches of the match. The third axis was the most prominent disaster with Ellyes Skhiri and Ghailene Chaalali both getting booked after succumbing to frustration. Anice Badri, fortunate to escape with just a yellow card, also couldn’t quite ascertain what his role was meant to be.
Later introductions for Mskani and Chaouat didn’t kindle much of anything. No one showed any discipline with respect to their spacing. The three-man-defensive front may not have yielded the desired results in the first match, but the latest arrangement looked even worse.
As bad as this team is, bookie stands by his assessment that Chinguetti Lions are by far the worst team in the tournament. Thanks for the one mealy shot on target you fucking farces!
THE LINE: Tunisia +2 Goals
Mali vs. Angola
vs.
Bookie was surprised to see Les Aigles lose many of the physical battles against Tunisia. If there was one area where one would expect the Malians to be dominant throughout, it would be out-shouldering the pesky defenders when in possession. Mohammed Magassouba’s boys did okay on the 50-50s, but had their pockets picked all too easily when they themselves were challenged.
Bad calls usually abound in fixtures such as the one they just completed. While the West Africans can be said to have some legitimate grievances, they supplied their fair share inadequately punished filthy dirty tackles as well. Marega, Samassekou, Molla Wague, and Lassana Coulibaly don't exactly have cause for complaint after failing to play real sporting football in their most recent encounter.
A promising chance to pounce for the Sable Antelopes, but they won’t be able to compete offensively here
THE LINE: Mali +1 Goal
Initial Group Projection (6/19/2019)
1) Tunisia 2) Mali 3) Angola 4) Mauritania
Final Group Projection (6/29/2019)
(2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Mali 2) Tunisia 3) Angola 4) Mauritania
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
