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With warm preemptive congratulations to Kanzlerin Baerbock :)
Your friendly bookie wholeheartedly endorses a German velvet revolution. Let's go Europe!
Day 15: Recap
Bookie’s Stats—
Spread: 12-28
Straight up: 17-16-7
Looks like your friendly bookie tipped the wrong "upset special". No matter. Together we commemorate what definitely met the definition of a "long live football" day. A stunning upset from the lowest ranked team in the tournament followed by a tense, chance-laden battle between the two giants.
With his better know (and much better compensated) brother by his side, Borussia Dortmund's Thorgan Hazard gets awarded the day for that sumptuous striker Didn't the bookie tell you he was poised for a monster tournament?
One could just tell based on his late season form. At least that part of the bookie's oracle drive hit the mark. Congratulations to supporters of Europe's most confused country on punching through to the quarters!
Now I'm confused. What the hell are "Belgian fries" and why haven't I heard of them earlier? Never knew there was such thing as a dispute between the Republiqe Froggies and the Walloons over who invented fried chips.
Somehow I've gone through close to four decades of life without hearing word one about this. Back in 2002, America could have avoided the whole "freedom fries" embarrassment by simply throwing the Walloons a shout.
Oh well. Let's get to the football before everyone becomes overcome by an insatiable craving for Pommes Rot/Weiß.
S.S.S. Tactical Breakdown 
The Czechs have done it! They knocked of the team so many of us were uncertain about just as we were talking ourselves into them. Looks like Frank de Boer might be headed for the gallows after all. His 5-3-2 proved the biggest tournament fiasco since the Roman Zobnin's errant back-pass against Denmark got the poor Russian footballer sent off to the salt mines.
We'll have to nevertheless give the Czech's credit. Out of nowhere, Jaroslav Silhavy engineered a tactical intricate tactical victory. May the non-existent God bless the overhead tactical cam. It revealed it all in full splendor.
First the "catch up" work. Silhavy spared us an extra draw up by deploying the exact same XI and formation in the final two group stage matches.
Lineup—CZE—Match 2/3 (4-2-3-1) (6/18-22/2021)
Small wonder your friendly bookie couldn't tip an upset. It was the same overrated crap we witnessed on Day Four. It slowly slid down in efficacy like a Prague prostitute's sales pitch. With starting left-back Jan Boril lost to suspension, everything looked to crumble further.
The team sheet revealed that Silhavy planned to use Hoffenheim's Pavel Kaderabek on his unnatural side. Moreover, the CZE gaffer brought in a cold Antonin Barak for his first meaningful action of the tournament. Surely this was doomed to fail.
To reiterate, may the non-existent God bless the overhead tactical cam.
Lineup—CZE—Match Four (4-2-2-2) (6/27/2021)
Beautiful. This was actually the formation your friendly bookie projected in the preview section long before the competition kicked off. Suddenly, it appeared like some mythical Eastern European forrest troll cutting through the Sumava fog.
As geared toward a slick counter as giving Schick a direct service striker is, there was also a well-designed defensive game-plan in place. Soucek and Holes took turns dropping back to the sweeper position to form a back-five. Kaberabek mostly stayed back with only Coufal allowed to press.
The latter directive had the effect of controlling the Dutch advance on their right flank. Denzel Dumfries bombed up and down with his trademark flair, but often found himself slowed down by Kaderabek just long enough to take away delivery options.
By the time we got to the half hour mark, this Czech construct was not only absorbing pressure, but wresting control of the possession game as well. The underdogs created all the chances. Apart from that unforgivable miss from Donyell Malen, this remained so after the restart all the way up to Matthijs de Ligt's red card.
We'll talk a bit about the controversy there in the "riffs" section below. The fact remains that Silhavy's men were in control of the momentum long before being reduced to ten-man broke the back of the Dutch. This fixture was undoubtedly headed in a certain direction; one that would not have been possible without the right tactics.
Yes, my friends, this serves as a big fucking deal. One has to reach back very far to recall the last time the "Czech mates" made it this far. The only other time they even progressed beyond the group in a syndicate chapter came in the 2004 EM coverage (i.e. the "Revenge of the Syndicate" Chapter).
Quite the sight in front of the packed house at in Budapest.
Long Live Football!
Time to check in with the world's #1 ranked footballing nation. Yes, I know. Everyone's tired about hearing how this is the last chance of the "Golden Generation". It's something that, watching the tempo with which Roberto Martinez's men played today, one cannot be reminded of enough. Christ, are they slow.
Lineup—Belgium—Match Three (3-4-3) (6/21/2021)
This little bit of catch up work affords us a chance to look at some of Martinez's back-up options. Bookie talked a bit about it in the latest Lines post when previewing this match. There was little chance of seeing the straight 3-4-3 again.
I was a bit conservative when selecting the players projected to appear in the revived 3-4-2-1. Martinez was definitely not. He put it all out there, not even bothering to bury De Bruyne a bit in the manner you see above.
Lineup—Belgium—Match Four (3-4-2-1) (6/27/2021)
All the first-choice actors in place, whether they were fully fit or not. Bookie wished he had the balls to augur that he would stack the Hazard brothers together on the left. Always wanted to see this, but I shied away from predicting it, even in the preview section.
The biggest surprise came in the back-three. Dedryck Boyata and Jason Denayer aren't exactly spring chickens, but hardly anyone expected him to build a suppressed defensive axis with three players of a combined age of 101!
This almost seemed like an invitation to Portugal's highly talented front three. On the overhead cam, one could spot how far removed Vermaelen, Vertonghen, and Alderweireld were from the midfield. The Portuguese were repeatedly able to unlock this with simple long verticals.
Call this a lucky escape. This was by no means an easy opponent. Martinez probably had little choice but to deploy all of his best against the defending European Champions, whom your friendly bookie has repeatedly stated entered this tourney seriously stronger than they were five or even three years ago.
Taking risks with your best can still lead to this.
Oops. Right in time for Italy in the quarters. Given how highly physical this match finished, we've got more worries too. Lukaku looked completely out of gas towards the end. Boyata is still struggling to get back in. We also shouldn't forget that Axel Witsel's--a medical miracle--is running on a torn ACL.
The eight positional changes in the third match showed us that the back-up solutions simply aren't there. Vertonghen, Vermaelen, and Alderweireld did not play particularly well. Meunier and Tielemanns have been fickle as all hell.
Some people labelled today's second match a stinker. Bookie didn't think so. I actually found it quite entertaining. The real stinker may come against an Italian side that, as we all saw yesterday, also looks weaker outside its group.
Place quarterfinal bets with caution, brothers!
-4 games played
-8 goals scored
Full coverage of the flying Dutchmen tactics on this Summer's blog. Of course, your friendly bookie couldn't resist after not having a chance to write on the men's team in seven long years. Frank de Boer's 5-3-2 also constituted the tactical story of the tourney.
The latest variation fast too easy to play around. Frankie de Jong and Marten de Room scooted inward, presumably to allow them to flip easily with fluid creative play. It ultimately didn't work because communication broke down and they both skirted back after de Ligt's sending off.
Apropos de Lift, the shifting around of the players on the flat back three shouldn't have mattered all that much. It did nevertheless create confusion; the type of which led to that defensive breakdown on the crucial handball call. It's unclear why de Boer opted to mix it up so much with non-defensively-minded wingbacks.
Wijnaldum's shifting didn't help matters either. He's been on more different horizontal planes than the bookie's inconsistent spelling of his first name on the tactics boards this tournament. You could have called this a blasted 8-0-2 during certain times in this match. Mind the damn gap!
Substitutions, substitutions. How can a coach accorded five of them in a single match manage to muck them up so badly. Quincy Promes in the 54th when the match was screaming for Wout Weghorst. No discernible attempt to reorganize his XI after the red card! A failure to introduce a competent striker until five minutes after it was too late.
Dammit, dammit, dammit!
Tens of thousands of Dutch fans made the trip to bathe the Hungarian capital in Orange. They brought their famous horn sections; the ones only those of us who follow the women's tournaments intensely have been allowed to enjoy. Fantastic supporters left out in the cold.
Oh well. There's always Lieke Martens and the Leeuwinnen. They'll be back next Summer. Frank de Boer is likely finished. Watch them bring back Ronald Koeman tomorrow.
Portugal—"The Navigators"
-4 games played
-7 goals scored
Previous Portugal Tactical Coverage:
A shame that a team this talented had to bow out so early. The last half hour of today's game showed how great they could be. The Bundesliga-loving bookie particularly enjoyed the late efforts from Raphaël Guerreiro and André Silva.
Alas, our current 24-team-structure means that there shall always be round-of-16 affairs that should have been semis and quarters that should have been finals. Not much we can do about it but wait for the 32-team-expansion, when we'll decline to watch the rubbish teams play in the group.
Fernando Santos came under a lot of criticism this year. I personally think the Navigator trainer was well on his way to finding an especially good XI.
Lineup—Portugal—Match Three (4-3-3) (6/23/2021)
After splendid performances in the the final two group stage games, Renato Sanches cemented his place in the starting lineup. Bookie built the projected constellation in the Lines section based on the hope that Santos might pair Sanches axially with the ever exciting Joao Felix.
Maybe he should have. Most certainly on his way to discovering the most intimidating XI he could come up with, Santos fell just one piece short on the final day.
Lineup—Portugal—Match Four (4-3-3) (6/27/2021)
Never even heard of Joao Palhinha. Apparently, he's a domestic league player of some repute. The 25-year-old only received his first call up this past March during the WMQ qualifiers. No way of telling what the idea here was, other than the obvious fact that this team was thin on defensive anchors ahead of that aging back line.
We really didn't see all that much of Joao Felix and André Silva this tournament. We saw perhaps too much of Joao Moutinho, William Carvalho, and Pepe. Overall, the country's program seems caught in a sort of limbo between one generation and the next.
No one's suggesting that the European Selecao are in the same position as the Swedes were with Ibrahimovic in 2016. This team still needs Ronaldo next Winter and possibly through 2024. Santos will nevertheless have to actively try to balance his squad better in the next tournament.
We dropped a damn good team today. Can't wait to welcome them back in 18 months time.
“Riffs of the Day”—Day Fifteen
Reader: There's no way in hell that was intentional. Fuck whatever Mark Clattenburg says!
Vicey: I'm with you, 96-M. Your Ornaje just got hosed. Everyone needs to watch it again.
De Ligt just tripped. His left arm is out intended to soften his fall to the deck. Even with all this technology, we still have a subjective game gentlemen. We also can't read a player's thought process in a split second
Reader: De Ligt should have just thrown his head at it like Phil Jones. Also, they need to leave Promes in Russia forever.
Vicey: An understandably upset 128-M makes an excellent point.
Who in their right mind actually wants to return to Russia? This loopy guy.
"Call me chocolate, Spartak!"
"I also love playing on pitches with no grass!"
Reader: Pepe is just damn well pissing me the fuck off.
Vicey: Thank you, 111-M! Probably the best part came when Lukaku ignored him.
Wish I could find a picture of that. Guess we can retire one of our longstanding riffs called upon over the years.
"Wassa matter man, you no like Pepé?
Nope, can't say that I do. I no like-a Pepé. He a-filthy-a-dirty-a-asshole-o.
Reader: Long live football, Vicey.
Vicey: Long live football, 15, 23, 42, 67, 72, and 117-M!
LONG LIVE FOOTBALL!
DAY SIXTEEN—PREVIEW
Spain vs. Croatia
vs. 
I'm sticking with the two goal line here. C'mon Roja. Now it's your turn to overturn the recent trends.
THE LINE: Spain +2 Goals (holding)
France vs. Switzerland
vs. 
Have to roll this one up slightly as many of you spotted the Germano-phile bias.
THE LINE: France +2 Goals (rolling up soft from France +1)
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
