Welcome to the second-half of the sacred "Blitz Phase".
This next set of lines takes you through Wednesday, all the way up to the point where no one has any reasonable excuse left for not tuning into this tournament.
Before weighing this set of picks and the accompanying set of final group stage predictions, know that we've still got plenty of already handicapped football to get through on this particular day. As per usual, your friendly bookie is well ahead of the game.
No need for any confusion. All the lines and odds for the two groups and four fixtures set to kickoff today have been up since Saturday in the Round Three (Part I) post. You've still plenty of time to wager on those. Take your time thinking on these,
One last visit from Paul if you'd care to jam along.
Many thanks to the Berlin hero for emceeing the group stages. We'll be moving on in the knockouts. From Kraftwerk through Paul and onto the bleeding edge of modern electronic music. Trans-Europe syndicate rides on like an Eurostar slicing through the continental countryside.
Good luck with your bets and brackets, mates. Much more at stake for everyone now. So much fun left in store.
Tuesday, June 22nd
Group D Final Kickoff @ 21:00 (UTC +1)
London and Glasgow get the day all to themselves in for what should be an exciting finish to the "Radioactivity" Group. We'll witness something sure to stick in the mind regardless of what occurs here. We'll also bear witness to a bunch of cranky England fans posting their own much-better built lineups on social media as soon as Gareth Southgate's team sheet is out. That last bit isn't meant to be judgmental. German fans are just as bad, if not worse.
Who could have possibly predicted that the Czech's would enter this final group-stage matchday topping the group on goal differential? Certainly not the bookie. To be fair, CZE lads are only there because of an inconsistent interpretation of the handball rule. Those of us who follow the Bundesliga aren't expecting all that much more out of Leverkusen's Patrik Schick over the duration of the tournament.
Loads of fun permutations here and the action should prove compelling right up until the end. In the process of handicapping the results, however, the bookie augurs an outcome that will leave many feeling dissatisfied. If, as is predicted, the Croats and Scots draw, two countries many would like to see progress to the knockouts will finish on two points.
In addition to ensuring automatic elimination for the Scots, two points serves as an effective death sentence for a third-placed team. With fingers crossed for the sensation that would at least see the long-suffering boogie bunch from the Isle through, it looks like two fun nations are going home.
Croatia vs. Scotland
vs.
Huge talent gap here. The Croats feature so many high caliber players. It's ridiculous. Know that any wager placed on the Highland Terriers constitutes a backing of a big-ass underdog. Listen to your heart and you're playing with fire. Not sure how many 80s' cheeseball song references inadvertently got packed into that last sentence.
If you're inclined to go the romantic route, bookie has some good news to divulge. Two matches in, Zlatko Dalic still hasn't cracked what many consider to be an obvious code. The manner in which the checkered ones are set up counts as something of a disgrace. Your friendly bookie slobbers over the much more pragmatic Scottish tactics in the very same daily. Read the Day Eight recap if you'd care to talk yourself into the Tartans.
After some consideration, bookie believes that the Steve Clarke's brave XI won't have to work as hard as they have in the previous two fixtures to keep this unbalanced and surprisingly anemic Croat attack in check. The problem is that I'm not so certain they can score themselves against the most experienced back-line they've faced yet. If they do, Dalic can pile on the attackers to restore parity.
Signs point to a draw and, sadly, elimination for both teams.
THE LINE: Pick em'
England vs. Czech Republic
vs.
Relax, you clamoring Limey lot. Even if Southgate makes no alterations to the last XI, it will still prove sufficiently overpowering to knock in a pair of tallies. I happen to think we will see changes. The Lions' train can sit Harry Kane, at the very least under the justification of resting a slumping player. The moment all Bundesliga watchers have also been clamoring for should also come. Jadon Sancho starts on the left.
Rashford gets the nod over Kane. Kieran Trippier returns to the left-back position, though it wouldn't come as a shock to see Ben Chidwell get the start. Jordan Henderson might be introduced over Declan Rice. Everyone else stays put in the exact same formation. After the obligatory groaning, not unlike that heard from the German fans on Saturday, St. George overcomes a sluggish start to win 2-0.
Bookie didn't bother drawing it up for the Czechs on Day Eight because they lined up in the exact same 4-2-3-1 available in the Day Four Recap. It's a weak team. Don't forget that the goal propelling Patrik Schick to the tournament's leading scorer position came courtesy of a weak penalty. Somehow one doesn't see Jaroslav Silhavy's boys going to hard here as they're likely to advance even with a loss.
THE LINE: England +2 Goals
Initial Group Projection (6/3/2021)
1) England
2) Croatia
3) Czech Republic
Final Group Projection (6/21/2021)
(Straight Up Odds for Bookie)
1) England (Advance)
2) Czech Republic (Advance)
3) Croatia (Eliminated on two points)
Wednesday, June 23rd
Group E Final Kickoff @21:00 (UTC +1)
Two cities with absolutely nothing in common enjoy hosting privileges here. We begin the day in Seville and St. Petersburg in the "Wellspring of Life" group. Bookie always thought that the tournament's true Cinderella would emerge from here. I'll stick to that prediction as it looks like we've got two non-big five teams going through out of what was always the most intriguing grouping.
If anyone cares to track back a bit, the Swedes were always my pick to serve as the competition's dark horse. Not entirely sure if a country like Sweden qualifies as a "sleeper pick", but I liked them to top this group before we began and I still like them to do so after this set of simultaneous kickoffs concludes.
All of the vitriol directed at the Spanish seems a mite overblown to the bookie. They always start slow. This year, after training in individualized quarantine modules, everyone else had a head-start on them in the lead up. A second place finish for La Furia Roja here translates to a date with the Czechs in the round-of-16. In my mind, it also translates to the quarterfinals.
Slovakia vs. Spain
vs.
No, I'm not concerned. Not even remotely. Much has been written about Spain's slow vertical style. Then there's all the usual noise about tiki-taka being too clichéd and outdated. True devotees of the beautiful game know to disregard this. None of the Spanish teams captured the 2008, 2010, and 2012 crowns got off to especially explosive starts. While this team may not be a true contender, they're also not poised for an implosion.
Luis Enrique made one change to the team we last checked in with on Day Four when lining up against Poland on Saturday. Gerard Moreno replaced Ferran Torres on the right. Everyone else remained in place. Alvaro Morata, who scored this time, once again functioned as a false-nine. One can call criticism of the front three justified, despite the fact that the midfield didn't do well on the link-up play. Dani Olmo really dipped while Morata and Moreno finished poorly.
One still doesn't really divine any sort of alternative. Moreover, there were plenty of moments during the fixture where it appeared that Koke, Pedri Gonzalez, and Rodrigo Hernandez were feeling each other out. We musn't forget that this didn't have the benefit of training together after Sergio Busquets' COVID diagnosis. Busquets is back. Morata is still very talented. The Slovaks are still employing that easily exploitable 4-4-2 with Ondrej Duda alone up top slanted right.
La Roja tiki-tan their way around it and dance to a convincing victory.
THE LINE: Spain +2 Goals
Sweden vs. Poland
vs.
With my most heartfelt apologies to the Polish syndicate contingent, Saturday's draw bears all the markings of a typical Czerwoni false dawn. Loved the finish from Lewandowski. Hated, as I knew I would, Paulo Sousa's latest set of tactics. They were even more absurd then last time. Saturday being a "Germany Day", bookie didn't have time to catch up with them. Suffice to say I think I saw 3-4-1-1...oh who gives a shit?
Jakub Moder and Tymoteusz Puchacz tripped over each other, managing to break up their own play for chrissakes. Any hopes that Swedish manager Janne Andersson might thaw out the boring-ass 4-4-2 for this match were summarily dashed when I saw what horrible disarray this Polish side is in. This is what one gets when appointing a new trainer with no clear philosophy so close to the start of a major international.
This is not going to be a good football match, largely because it doesn't have to be. Old man Olof can fall asleep on the sidelines while his team goes on autopilot for the 0-0 draw. The Swedes only needing a draw to earn an encounter with an English side significantly weaker than the one that eliminated them three years ago in the 2018 WM quarterfinals, we might actually see just that. Bookie intuitively feels like the Blaugults have one late goal in them.
THE LINE: Sweden +1 Goal
Initial Group Projection (6/6/2021)
1) Sweden
2) Spain
3) Poland
4) Slovakia
Final Group Projection (6/21/2021)
(Straight Up Odds for Bookie)
1) Sweden (Advance)
2) Spain (Advance)
3) Slovakia (alive on three points)
4) Poland (Eliminated)
Group F Final Kickoff @21:00 (UTC +1)
München and Budapest close out the group stages. Everything a human being could possibly is right here on the final day of the "Tour de France" Group. We've got a rematch of the EM 2016 Final. There's a chance for the Hungarians to exact revenge for the 1956 "Wunder von Bern". Permutations galore as we not only keep a close eye on the matches at hand, but also try to figure out the last places on the round-of-16 dance card in real time.
No way the bookie was going to be able to rush through this section. Had to take a step back last night rather than go green right away. Thinks and re-thinks. Best to treat a group like this very delicately. Nerves and passion can't govern the lines. Neither can geo-politics. No one wants to see Victor Orban enjoy a "Merkel Moment" and get re-elected.
Perhaps the step back didn't really help as all that perspective didn't alter the picks. Once the lines are set in the mind, additional rumination often constitutes nothing more than elaborate self-reinforcing. One talks oneself into what one wants. Such is the human condition. Oh well.
Clear your schedule on Wednesday as you won't want to miss out on the crazy conclusion of the group stage.
Portugal vs. France
vs.
A very difficult pair of teams to read here. As pertains to the French, everyone's slapping the "overrated" tag on them after Saturday's 1-1 draw in Budapest. Not exactly sure this is justifiable. Les Bleaus played an excellent first half and Griezmann's tally showed that he's still deadly in front of goal irrespective of what weird position Deschamps has him playing in.
In the final analysis, the bookie chalks the disappointing result up to a bit of laissez faire arrogance from the tournament favorites. Imagine that from ze French. Tactical cam viewing. Handwritten notes. Multiple chin strokes and a few perspective-enhancing strolls around the block. After all that, the best I can do is a damn stereotype.
The Portuguese can't be so easily pigeonholed, perhaps because they don't have such ready-made stereotypes upon which to draw. Still in awe as to how such a talent-laden assemblage of players got ripped apart by my Krauts so easily. When one considers the potential of the latest constellation, it's still hard to fathom that so much was accomplished simply by exploiting Nelson Semedo's tendency to cut inside.
The right adjustments will make all the difference here. Deschamps had the perfect game-plan in place ahead of Germany. He then underplayed his hand in the middle match against the group's weakest team. Now I think we'll see the changes intended for this pivotal fixture. Ousmane Dembélé, Correntin Tolisso, and Thomas Lemar over Rabiot, Griezmann and Benzema.
Fernando Santos still has an obscenely talented top XI, but not that sort of depth. A tight stalemate this shall be until "Les Miserablés" finally unlock the Navigators and we get the late goals. To what extent floodgates can be considered flung open so late in a match, I'm betting on the 82nd minute.
THE LINE: France +2 Goals
Deutschland vs. Hungary
vs.
The bookie feels a bit more confident heading into this one. Still prepared for the worst. A competent manager like Marco Rossi won't have to work terribly hard on the tactics board to devise a solution for what worked for Löw & Co. last time. Even an amateur overhead cam enthusiast such as myself can work it out. Just invert your wingers and diamond-box it. Simple. Far too simple.
We've not yet had a chance to draw it up for Hungary in the dailies yet. The bookie can nevertheless tell you that their projected 3-5-2 mostly holds. Moreover, it impresses. We should have enough punch in our lineup to bang home at least one goal more than them. It just wouldn't be German not to think ourselves into a disaster.
In lieu of the fact that this might be the final tournament match for my beloved Vaterland, it would be most unfair of my not to give the bettors a chance to cash in on the heartbeat emanating from their bookie's beating bosom. Gentlemen, I give you the knife. Twist it into my heart. I leave myself vulnerable.
THE LINE: Germany +1 Goal
Initial Group Projection (6/7/2021)
1) France
2) Portugal
3) Germany
4) Hungary
Final Group Projection (6/21/2021)
(2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) France (Advance)
2) Germany (Advance)
3) Portugal (alive on three points)
4) Hungary (Eliminated)
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
