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Your friendly bookie wholeheartedly endorses a German velvet revolution. Let's go Europe!
Day 9: Recap
Bookie’s Stats—
Spread: 6-18
Straight up: 9-10-5
H-rem. Awkward cough. Clears throat.
"Auf geht's Jungs!!!"
No, your friendly bookie didn't pull a fast one on you this time. What everyone in the Bundesrepublik just beheld was most unexpected. We've been down on our team for some time with very good reason. It's not without justification that we've tempered our expectations
Since the historic humiliation of the 2018 WM Group stage exit, Löw's Nationalelf have only won one meaningful international match over the past three years. The 0-6 drubbing against Spain last November and the 1-2 shock defeat against North Macedonia last March illustrated just how disastrous we are.
Now we're clicking; "Groovin with Gosens" if you will. Surely it's time to welcome die Nationalmannschaft back into our lives with open arms? Komm doch wieder in den Kreis unsere Liebsten!
Meh. Maybe not. Our sincerest thanks for the performance today. Good fight and spirit. The win was well deserved. We've not had the privilege of waving our flags patriotically since the "Ihr seid Kroosartig" moment in Sochi some three Summers ago. English media dubbed it "Kroos-busters".
Speaking of that infamous last-second free-kick win against Sweden in the WM group stages, this victory generates similar emotions. Elation quickly gave way to nerviness. Disaster was only narrowly averted today and may still await us midweek.
The pattern of 2018 can easily repeat. Loss. Win. Loss. And we're done. The German public has done our part. For literally the first time ever heading into a tournament, we don't expect the semi-finals. Here the Jungs just need to get out of the group.....and they haven't done it yet.
It's a Germany day, gentlemen. Just like in the Day Five Recap, we're focusing almost solely on the Vaterland. A little catch up with the Navigators shall take place too, but even that will be viewed through a Schwarz/Weiß lens. Und wir holen den Sieg mit euch!
Beginning with Löw's tactics, the entire nation let out a collective exasperated sigh when they saw the team sheet. No changes. No Leroy Sané. No Emré Can. No fourth defender. Was Löw truly about to roll with the same constellation that produced ZERO SHOTS ON TARGET?
Yes and no. The early play did look a lot like the previous game plan. It was a brute force version of the 3-4-3 your friendly bookie so vehemently railed against in the last review. There was much railing, not to mention shouting through the opening minutes.
More intrepid attempts at goal were admirable, but not inspiring. After Ronaldo caught what appeared a turbocharged version of a failed system on the counter, it appeared as if it was all over. Having had a chance to take the entire match in context, I think this was the the plan:
Definitely another 3-4-3; albeit one with significant instructional shifts. As we would discover, Havertz's assignment was that of a centralized false-nine. Gnabry's basic instructions placed him left. As was the case on Tuesday, interchanges and rotations were encouraged. Gnabry took advantage of this more than the other two.
Regarding Gosens and Kimmich, these were in no way wingback assignments. It's farcical to label them as such. They were told to play as straight wingers, launching switch balls as often as possible to open up the defense. A laudably bold move that certainly paid off. It was absolutely worth it to take a shot against Portugal's center-halve duo.
Kroos and Gündoğan dropped back accordingly. No pivot role for Hummels on this day. He anchored a flat back-three. Löw needed the veteran as a defensive linchpin. Your friendly booking watched closely for any signs of inversion. Ginter charged up right on a couple of occasion, but there were no synchronized movements from Rüdiger to suggest as much. Two defensive sixes ahead of a flat-line three-man chain.
The positioning at the back obviously sought to compensate for the risk associated with the shifts on the forward axes. One could largely say that it worked as the two Portuguese goals resulted from set pieces. In the case of the opener, Cristiano Ronaldo initiated a quick down-field rush with a blind header away off a Kroos corner. The legend then finished it off himself after hustling the length of the pitch.
That's Gosens hopelessly sliding after him, by the way. The Atalanta (and hopefully future Hertha) man went from having an early goal disallowed to possibly looking like the fool of the afternoon. The German team's imagination and drive wilted after this.
We were hugely concerned, especially as it looked as if Kroos was going to struggle for the second consecutive match with his set-piece delivery. Müller and Havertz, again, were looking off on their first touches. Your friendly bookie, heart-rate up, genuinely feared he would have to write the exact same review piece again.
So many parallels to Tuesday. More hopeless crosses into the box from Kimmich. Müller booting balls off his heavy foot. Havertz and Gnabry trying to force their way through with bafflingly bad ideas. Severe vulnerability on the counter. Twenty full minutes of this! Then came the first own-goal in the 35th.
Initially incorrectly credited to Havertz, Gosens deserves credit for it more than the hard-luck Ruben Dias. The monster man of the match timed his run on this one to perfection. In point of fact, he did that all afternoon. Credit whoever worked with him on the training pitch in the intervening four days for helping him with that. Excellent precision work.
Thomas Müller deserves more credit that Raphaël Guerreiro for the second own goal some four minutes later. There would have been no wild goalmouth scramble had our man not deftly kept the ball alive with a first touch flick after a failed clearance. Bookie still thinks he took too many bad touches, but today was much better from "Herr Radio".
Two goals in four minutes totally reversed the course of the game. To be truthful, there wasn't all that much anxiety from the German perspective after that. We had wind in our sails. Gosens nearly scored before the half with Kimmich coming oh so close to burying the follow up.
Some of us thought Löw should bring on an extra defender at the half and revert to a four-man-defensive-chain in order to preserve the lead. This could have easily been accomplished by introducing Halstenberg, Can, or even Süle in at right back and moving Kimmich into midfield to pair with either Kroos or Gündogan.
In the final analysis, I think Löw played it right in this case. In terms of substitutions, the most important piece of personnel management would be getting Goretzka onto the pitch for some match-speed practice at some point.
Of course, one can't credit the Bundestrainer for all the marvelous play Gosens produced to put the match away. He didn't see that. No one did. Löw was preparing to take Gosens off after he assisted on the third goal. It was pure coincidence that the relatively newly introduced starting left-back got his curtain call.
A back-four was clearly intended after four substitutions had been completed. On the tactical cam, a loose 4-5-1 materialized. This was merely intended to keep order as an already-decided match wound down. The players still had plenty of freedom.
Am I concerned about this?
Slightly. Everyone switched of on that 67th-minute set piece. You can see Müller and Hummels ball-watching. This can nevertheless be excused as the match was well and truly over at 4-1. The Jungs had some positive adrenaline flowing through their veins.
I'm a bit more concerned about where we go from here. Löw has to do some tinkering now. As everyone remembers from that painful Euro 2012 semi-final against Italy, our Bundestrainer can get it dead wrong when managing a squad of players he's made promises to.
Löw's tactics here weren't what one might call ingenious either. They can and did backfire. It took some dogged persistence and more than a bit of luck to swing the momentum back the other way.
With it likely time to integrate Goretzka and move Kimmich into midfield, I still hope that we're eventually headed for that 4-2-1-3 I drew up in the Day Five Recap.
That constellation necessitates dropping Havertz in favor of Sané and starting Goretzka ahead of Gündogan. Emré Can takes over at right back.
I don't think we'll see this as Löw will be too timid to drop Havertz and Gündogan. He's afraid of making this move ahead of a big match and (as is too often the case with him) doesn't want to alienate players.
No pressure, Jogi. Just get us out of the group and there's nothing left for you to chase.
Here are the bookie's grades:
Grades—Deutschland (Match Two)
Robin Gosens | A+ (1,0) |
Serge Gnabry | A+ (1,0) |
Joshua Kimmich | A (2,0) |
Leon Goretzka | A (2,0) |
Kai Havertz | A- (2,5) |
Thomas Müller | B (3,0) |
Toni Kroos | B (3,0) |
Mats Hummels | B- (3,5) |
Manuel Neuer | B- (3,5) |
Antonio Rüdiger | C+ (4,0) |
Ilkay Gündogan | C (4,5) |
Matthias Ginter | C (4,5) |
Tempting just to assign grades to the original XI as there was little meaningful action after the subs came rolling on. I nevertheless liked Goretzka's late effort, so we have a total of twelve rows of marks. To my eyes, Gnabry was every bit as fantastic as Gosens. Silky smooth stuff from him.
Havertz, Müller, and Gündogan will probably be the grades likely to engender the most controversy. I stand by my assertion that Havertz and Müller didn't always demonstrate the most intellgient touches.
Gündogan handled his defensive duties well and passed quickly on the rare occasions he was involved. He still didn't really impress me with his pressing on the ball and looked a bit perambulatory at times. He could have been pulled earlier.
With the possible exception of Gnabry, none of the stronger form players from the previous encounter carried their form over. Given that we're playing tournament football, this doesn't necessarily constitute an additional worry.
We've enough of worries to go around. The competition itself has been capricious enough even by tourney-football standards. We will need a real solution against Hungary, not just a jacked up version of the same plan. That's a big concern.
As promised, here's our first look at Portugal in a daily.
Understand that the bookie thought Ronaldo strong enough to play an out-and-out center-forward position, but thought it a mite more clever to use him as a false-nine. No one is disputing that he can still carry the team on his shoulders at the age of 36. All football watchers know full well he'll be capable of that into his late thirties.
What we saw in the opening group stage match against Hungary really looked like a 4-2-4 press. Admittedly, the bookie doesn't really have any good answers for why it failed to work. Marco Rossi lined up his Magyars in a strange 3-1-4-2 arrangement that seemed to stymie them with a soft stagger.
The talent involved still should have been capable of getting around it. What we saw today almost appeared to be a straight emulation of the French tactics against the Germans.
Differentiating a 4-2-4 from a 4-2-3-1, everyone on the second attacking axis pulled back. A good tactic. Absolutely ripping this apart we have the lateral brilliant of Kimmich and Gosens. Good God. I personally forgot that Ruben Dias was Pepe's partner at times. One could be forgiven for thinking that Jose Fonté was out there.
Bringing Renato Sanches on at the half for a return to the Allianz was....well....I don't know what that was. Evidently Fernando Santos doesn't watch a lot of Bundesliga tape. I'll be sure to send him some of my columns next season. That what still an amazing hit in the 78th!
“Riffs of the Day”—Day Nine
Reader: Black shorts! Hallelujah.
Vicey: The syndicate's resident Paul Lukas (11-M) got his vindication. So did I.
The Vaterland followed Sweden's lead from yesterday and got rid of the solid-color accessorizing. Now we just have to stay out of that alternate black kit. I'm telling you, it's bad luck. I'll stick with the absurd horizontal stripes over the one most of you are already getting in your schwag pack.
Reader: You guys getting too old to score your own-goals?
Vicey: ....the problem with this sentence, 53-M, is that we're up 2-1 courtesy of two own-goals. This one threw me for a loop because of the hyphen. Not saying I wouldn't have made the same mistake as much as I'm typing these days. It just threw me for a loop there.
Reader: Now I'm fully convinced that Philipp Lahm and Joshua Kimmich are both the same player. They both stand beside Manuel Neuer during the national anthem, looking like dwarves in comparison.
Vicey: Hmmm........
Hmmm........
okay.....without looking it up, I think Kimmich has about four inches (nine centimeters) on Lahm. Philipp comes in just under Neuer's chin while Joshua reaches the lower lip. That's my estimate.
Reader: Is Jogi Löw wearing elastic stretch pants?
Vicey: Afraid so, 5-M. We're not doing a photo of this by the way. I refuse to provide photographic evidence of my national team trainer's descent from sharp suits and starched shirts to a guy who looks like he only gets up from the rocking chair to adjust his adult diapers.
Reader: Holy shit, did you see what Ronaldo just did to Rüdiger?
Vicey: Er....yes.....
Vicey: I believe my man was all bark and no bite today....which is perfectly fine in comparison to last time. I'm at least glad he kept his chompers to himself.
Reader: Holy shit, did you see that Renato Sanchez shot?
Vicey: Er....yes.....16-M. Thanks for the reliable ribbing. Sadly, I don't have a picture.
DAY TEN--PREVIEW
Italy vs. Wales
vs.
Yes, my phone is blowing up. I'll catch up and let you guys know for whom the line rolls.
THE LINE: Italy +1 Goal (holding)
Switzerland vs. Turkey
vs.
Same applies here.
THE LINE: Switzerland +1 Goal
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS