Shadow Scholar Syndicate: EM 2020--Round One

Servus Syndicate Members,

The long wait is over!

Nearly two tortuously long years after the last Africa Cup of Nations concluded in July 2019, the beautiful game's major internationals are back. This time, Europe gets its turn.

Prepare to once again feel the power and passion that only the global game can bring. It's Summer; the season of "Friends & Football". For the love of all that is secularly holy, don't miss out on this glorious festival!

After covering the full 24-team-field in six onset-betting-odds group previews, we're finally ready to rock some lines. A full set of round one tips will take you through Tuesday. Twelve fixtures over the next five days are all handicapped courtesy of your friendly neighborhood betting advisor.

Brackets and spreadsheets fingers prepared? Riff-ready fingers limbered up? Excellent. We'll begin right after I keep with this year's theme of introducing a musical guest. Some of you reading the mobile-phone version of the preview sections didn't even know we had such a theme this year. Oops. Technical difficulties.

Apologies, but somehow the YouTube embeds don't work on certain smartphones. I'm working to correct this. Your friendly bookie had the best of intentions in titling this chapter after the epic romantic sojourn of Kraftwerk's "Trans-Europe Express". Moreover, he wished to share his deep love of Europe with Kraftwerk's music and highlights from past tournaments.

This was lost on some of you who have written in to wonder aloud why I was babbling on about ground-breaking Kraut-rock and referencing nostalgic YouTube clips that apparently didn't exist. Given that I'm accustomed to a certain amount of Vice being lost on other people, I guess it took me a second to catch up to it.

In any event, you can always click on the "view web version" tab if you're curious. I've built in some hyper-links to the match sections that should enable you to access the proper version too. Again, I'm working to fix it. Been a while since I've worked with Blogspot. After two years off, all of us deal with atrophied skills.

On the "web version", you should be able to see this embed:

Berlin hero Paul van Dyk! Thanks so much for joining me to present these lines!

During this pandemic, Paul drew together stir-crazy quarantined people from across the globe with his free "Sunday Sessions" on Zoom. It was by far the most beautiful thing to come out of this mess. People dancing in their own living rooms; waving, flashing signs, and not remotely caring how silly they look.

I can think of no better advertisement for life.

In the latest sessions, a visibly more weary Paul increasingly gripes in German about not being permitted to play in front of a live audience anymore. Understandable. It's been a rough year working out of the same studio at the A7 club.

Hang in there, friend. Hang in there, everyone. We're almost clear.

With this man's ingenious work serving as a backdrop, we can well and truly "rock some lines".

Friday, June 11th

Italy vs. Turkey

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Much has transpired since we explored Roberto Mancini's Azzuri in the very first group stage preview section. As your friendly bookie freely conceded at the time, he was working with a 34-player preliminary roster. Since then, the Italian trainer has made the requisite seven cuts and completely smashed San Marino and the Czech Republic with a steamroller 4-3-3 in two pre-tournament exhibitions.

The two shutout victories mean that Italy quite literally steamrolls into the tournament on a run of eight clean sheets. Incredible. No one has scored on this team in 720 minutes! Even more incredible, the Azzuri enters the competition on a 22-match unbeaten run dating back to September 2018. Some 18,000 fans at the Stadio Olympico will have much to cheer for.

We've learned a bit more about the Turks, also on a six-fixture undefeated run, as well. Senol Günes' men actually contested three pre-tournament friendlies. Though they furnished some impressive moments, the bookie's lineup projection appears to have been spot on. The old man who engineered that magnificent tear to the 2002 semis rolls out a predictable 4-1-4-1 that the Italians should have no problem getting behind.

Some talk up Turkish potential as a Dark Horse candidate. Your bookie implores you to resist the temptation. If anything, the crescent stars appear collectively weaker than the sum of their parts in predatory action. Sorry Philly contingent, but you'll have to beat a high line here. The Lorenzo Pellegrini injury doesn't change my mind.

THE LINE: Italy +2 Goals

Saturday, June 12th

Wales vs. Switzerland

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Petkovic and the gang edged out the USA and completely demolished Liechtenstein in two pre-tournament friendlies since the initial handicap. Naturally, this tells us nothing as Liechtenstein lined up as the German speaking micro-state lined up with two customs officers in central defense and a freelance acupuncturist in goal.

The Swiss did line up in a back-three, anchored by Fabian Schär, in both instances and relied upon Xherdan Shaqiri as the offensive linchpin in the ten slot. The right tactical tweak could seek to take advantage of this. Regrettably, Wales do not find themselves in good hands. They've looked pretty confused under caretaker manager Rob Page.

It appears highly unlikely that we're in store for anything resembling that magical 2016 group stage. The gaps in the dragon constellation are even more severe than predicted. This version of the Welsh could lose all three matches. Don't buy into the Cinderella talk any more than all this noise about a potential Gareth Bale retirement.

On a more positive note, Chris Coleman settled into his new American broadcast commentator role quite well. It'll be nice to catch up with him throughout the course of this tournament. He's telegenic, insightful, and seems at home sitting in a plush studio chair.

THE LINE: Switzerland +2 Goals

Denmark vs. Finland

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NOT a Scandinavian rivalry. Are we clear on that Syndicate members? Not to say that you should annoy everyone in the bar by continually bringing this up, but polite corrections are in order should anyone flagrantly violate the bookie's bete noir. On the offhand chance that you encounter a Finn from the ultra frigid north who identifies with his/her Swedish ancestors, then you've my full permission to let it go.

Your bookie had a chance to scout the Danes fully in two prelim matches and was somewhat surprised to see that Jonas Wind started neither. Yussuf Poulsen played alone as the sole center forward against the Germans while Kasper Dolberg got the nod in the Bosnia & Herzegovina test. Trainer Kasper Hjulmand, a bit more of a tinkerer than Aga Hareide still seems to be sorting things out.

I still fully expect the Danes to top this group and get off on the right foot by earning a result here. The Finns have been pretty putrid in their own late test matches and Markku Kanerva's predicted back-five now resembles more of a shaky back-three. We're nevertheless in for a lower line here as I think Hjulmand wants to use the group stage to experiment further.

We'll thus tip a narrow victory.

THE LINE: Denmark +1 Goal

Belgium vs. Russia

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Extremely difficult one to call here. Stanislav Cherchesov's Ruskies look slightly stronger than in the bookie's original assessment. A healthy Roman Zobnin partners with Magomed Ozdoev on the third midfield axis. The RFU trainer has decent attacking-minded options ahead of them. Five separate players, including a spry-looking Alexsei Miranchuk, can fill those slots. There's some unexpected danger there.

The pressure builds on Roberto Martinez's Rode Duivels. They have the tournament's most demanding travel schedule, the competition's most unstable personnel situation, and all the burdens of being the world's #1 ranked footballing country playing with its "Golden Generation" for the final time. Scouting of the friendlies failed to convince your bookie. Martinez struggles to build a solid lineup. Of course, he has time to.

The Golden Eagles maintain home field advantage in front of 35,000 at St. Petersburg's Gazprom Arena. The blasted dopers also have UEFA by the scrotum. Much to the chagrin of many of us, Russia bullied the European confederation into forcing Ukraine to take a map off their jerseys that featured Crimea on it.

Some on-pitch/off-pitch headwinds, combined with the fact that Belgium doesn't really need a huge statement yet leads to a draw. No, it's not a happy pick. Bookie still tips a draw.

Be in touch if you'd like the original Ukraine tricot in your "schwag pack".

THE LINE: Pick em'

Sunday, June 13th

England vs. Croatia

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Group D precedes Group C as we get the highly anticipated re-match of the 2018 World Cup semi-finals in the early kickoff. You won't want to miss out on this one. Set the alarm for a huge match at Wembley. Scouters received no hints from Gareth Southgate as to his preferred tactics in the two recent test matches. Knowing that the footballing wold focuses on his squad more than others, Southy plays it close to the vest.

At least we know who should likely be starting as 1-0 wins over Austria and Romania seemed intended for the reserves. Bookie stands by the prognosticated XI, replete with Jordan Henderson and Declan Rice sharing the sweeper duties. The same applies to Zlatko Dalic's 4-3-3. He makes no point of disguising it, even if he wants to create confusion over who the lead striker is.

Kramaraic should start over Petkovic. Two opposing managers try their own slights, but the bookie isn't fooled. I'm confident in both the player projections and the scoreline I'm about to propose. This one has all the hallmarks of a 3-2 thriller. St. George carries the day after a scintillating back-and-forth affair.

THE LINE: England +1 Goal

North Macedonia vs. Austria

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Sunday's midday kickoff accords congenital flops Austria their best chance to do something other than soil themselves in a major international. Many, including your friendly bookie, already find themselves disheartened by what we've seen in the two test matches. Head-coach Franco Foda obstinately refuses to construct the sort of XI we want to see.

A surfeit of talented midfielders leaves the ÖFB-Adler overflowing with actors capable of dictating the tenor of a football match. Again the Burschen can't seem to get the ball up the field, let alone supply their capable finishers with anything precise. This team still hasn't scored since late March.

Perhaps the county's FA shouldn't have opted for one of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's cast-aways as their national team manager. Oh well. Based on the one-dimensional nature of a very weak opponent, bookie will make what could be construed as a sentimental pick.

C'mon, dammit. Score more than one goal in a tournament, Jungs!

THE LINE: Austria +3 Goals

Netherlands vs. Ukraine

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Our ancillary "group of life" appears even more closely matched than thought. Groups C and E are definitely the ones bettors will wish to focus on should they wish to play the long odds. Holland's Frank de Boer possesses right tools, yet hasn't put the scaffolding in place soon enough to make them applicable to the job.

It gives a bookie no pleasure to report that his promoted "Bundesliga Buddy" Wout Weghorst looks less than lethal in a 5-3-2 alongside Memphis Depay. Andiry Shevchenko's Yellows surprised by playing above their level in the tests. Aleksandr Zinchenko is definitely feeling it. The UKR may be the best Cinderella candidates if anyone's still courting one.

We'll tip a draw here based on the sneaking suspicion that, as little as the friendlies mean, one team seems to be showing signs that its in the ascendancy whilst the Dutch suddenly look like the habitual disappointment that missed the last two tournaments. An emendation to the forecast Ukrainian lineup sees them roll out a much more offensive-minded 4-1-4-1.

THE LINE: Pick em'

Monday, June 14th

Scotland vs. Czech Republic

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Two not-so-exciting teams bring Group D to its delayed opening round conclusion. Hard to pick a winner here and the bookie originally had it down for another draw. All the temple massaging wasn't helped by the fact that I always get it wrong with regard to the Czechs. In 2012 they completely miffed up an easy opening match, then roped you back over that crazy group stage.

Steve Clarke's Scots appear nice and flat, barely escaping with a 1-0 win over Luxembourg in a torridly ugly test. Contrary to expectations, Silhavy's Lions appear committed to a rigidly traditional 4-2-3-1 just a bit short of the creative impetus to net lots of goals. Hopefully we won't see a goalless match here.

In the battle of the group's not-so-exciting nations, I think there will ultimately be a winner. Watch it come late after a dull 89-minute stalemate leaves everyone at the office sadly deprived of some deserving "goof off" time.

THE LINE: Czech Republic +1 Goal

Poland vs. Slovakia

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We'll go out on a limb here and offer up some bright news to fans of the White Eagles. Unlike 2002, 2006, 2012, and 2018, they'll get off to a good start. Unlike in 2016, Lewandowski will score. Surely they can get it a done against a team no closer to finding it's identity than they were in the preview scouts. I believe in you, Bialo. You can do this.

Paulo Sousa's Poland drew their two tests. For those -Ms craving a sense of foreboding, Lewandowski didn't score. That's the bad news. The good news concerns the fact that Piotr Zielinski truly excels in a 3-4-3 with prominent wingbacks. It's far better than what I had drawn up. Tymoteusz Puchacz practically plays as a full flanker.

If it makes any Pollacks feel more comfortable, the cozy confines of pessimism and dread aren't far off. Your team's still nowhere near good enough to mount a serious challenge this year. After this strong statement, you might even finish bottom of the group.

THE LINE: Poland +2 Goals

Spain vs. Sweden

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Unfortunately, we've nothing but bad news to offer the syndicate's Spanish contingent. Sergio Busquets' COVID diagnosis serves as a stinging reminder that we're not on the other side of this pandemic yet. If anyone else can build a workable constellation without the team's captain, I'd love to see it; just like I'd love to see more players on the RFEF roster.

Along with the loud griping about Luis Enrique only calling up 24 players, expect more lambasting from us of the punditry class about why the whole squad wasn't vaccinated prior to training camp. This is less a complaint against the Spanish federation than UEFA as a whole. We're only talking a cumulative total of 600 players here. It could have been arranged.

Back to the football, it's not going to be a pleasant match for La Roja enthusiasts. Enrique may want to take another sabbatical after this one. Those who raised eyebrows when the bookie tipped Sweden to win the group might as well pay close attention.

THE LINE: Sweden +1 Goal

Tuesday, June 15th

Portugal vs. Hungary

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The reigning European Champions kick off their title defense against the very team that they faced in the final group stage game five years ago. Improbable as it might be, one hopes for another six-goal shootout.

Not happening, I suppose. Even if it did, you're friendly bookie would likely miss most of it as he nervously paces about ahead of the Germany game.

Whilst we're visiting the last edition of this competition, one might as well point out that eventual winners Portugal actually drew all three of their group stage matches. Ronaldo & Co. went through to the knockouts as one of the four most successful third-placed teams out of the six groups.

Yeah. In all the buildup hype ahead of this tourney, your friendly bookie semi-intentionally kept that factoid on the tacit back burner. We may see some teams pull back during the group phases as they know that they don't necessarily need to give their best yet.

I happen to think we'll see the best of the Navigators here. The Magyars, who topped the Portuguese group in 2016, don't have the weapons this time.

THE LINE: Portugal +2 Goals

France vs. Deutschland

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We arrive at (gulp), my country. To be clear, I'm tipping ze French for the win. That's not a superstitious pick either. It's what I expect, what I'm prepared for, and what I'm resigned to. Bring on the wagers so that I can also go deep into the red as your friendly bookie doesn't even anticipate that it will be as close as the line.

I'll make my peace with it as soon possible after Tuesday's full-time whistle. At least, that's the plan. It's not the worst thing in the world to lose to one's "border buddies." At the end of the day, it's only a game. On that we're all in agreement. Football is never more important than life.

It's common knowledge now that Bill Shankly was famously misquoted. The legendary Liverpool manager's words were taken out of context. The half-serious part of his half-jest conveyed his regret about placing football above everything else in his life. Many things were more important.

Something that remains emphatically important to most football fans is the globally integrated nature of the game. Humanity's greatest unifying tool provides a (improving) safe outlet for nationalism that we can all enjoy collectively. That we'll here get no matter who wins or loses.

A syndicate tradition that takes place every chapter involves the bookie's highlighting the diverse backgrounds of the members of the German national team. I place the flags next to the names for a nice multi variegated look. In the spirit of things this time, I might as well do it for the French as well.

Sociopolitically, I suppose we could all continue along the path of mercilessly shrieking at each other about who holds the deepest and truest comprehension of the word "diversity".

Er, if I might offer a suggestion, we could also just watch football together.

Lovers of the global game know where all these countries lie on the map.

France

-Lucas Hernandez (Spain)

-Presnel Kimpembe (Congo DR)