Introduction—“Tour de France”
It's the bookie country's group. You all know what that means.
Time to ruminate on the ephemeral nature of life via the examination of another "Group of Death".
Ze French take legitimate pride in their bucolic heritage. They don't take umbrage at the labelling of their domestic competition as a "farmer's league".
When the horrors of last century's two World Wars mercifully came to an end, the abhorrent trenches vanished underneath the peaceful plough.
Germany's treasured neighbors then went back to doing what they do best; pumping out delicious farmhouse cuisine. Thank you.
One might confuse the bookie for a Frenchman after reading that overly baroque introductory tribute. The unacquainted reader should know that he hails from a German region so close to la République that he might as well be one. The lines are pretty blurry in certain concerns of the old American sector. Borders remain arbitrary in the shadow of Strasbourg.
Many live in one country and commute to the other. La Marseillaise is sung in local pubs about as frequently as our Nationallied. In the event that someone led you into an alehouse blindfolded, you might have some difficulty ascertaining whether you were in Baden or Alsace.
It was such that your friendly bookie very much enjoyed the last trophy lift we saw in a major men's international.
Viva la République! Amid the torrentiel downpour in Moscow, the strange rock which we call home became known as "Bleu Planet". Precisely two decades after "Black, Blanc, Buer" and Gloria Gaynor's "I will survive", they did it again. Your friendly bookie found himself, in the French spirit, feeling miserably happy.
So....when does the next implosion come? We can always rely upon the French for that. The "original hipsters" can't bear the weight of their own success anymore than your friendly bookie can accept a complement. A disaster beckons at some point. The volatile nature of the deeply temperamental French soul demands it.
Will we see something akin to the group-stage-exit in 2002?
Possibly, but it doesn't quite fit the pattern. If one wishes to augur something as humiliating as the 0-1 defeat to former colony Senegal in Seoul, one skips over the Euro 2000 victory. In terms of historical headwinds, the collapse shouldn't come until the World Champions seek to defend their crown in the desert sands next year.
There does exist one historical precedent serving as a cause of concern. Didier Deschamps brought back one of the players involved in one of the categorically French internal debacles. Karim Benzema isn't dissimilar to Nicolas Anelka in that his passion often over-boils in wholly non-beneficial ways.
Anyone need reminding of what happened in 2010?
Yeooouch. I think all of us French enthusiasts experience some nervousness at having Benzema back to spearhead the attack. After his most recent club campaign at Real Madrid, the 33-year-old striker could not truly be ignored.
The trouble is, Benzema remains about as fiery an attack artist on his twitter feed as he is on the pitch. The L'Euipe journalists also know just who to call if things go awry quickly, as they might, in the opening match against Germany.
I don't think they will. Here's why.
Projecting the French Lineup (4-2-3-1)
We're basically looking at the same team that Deschamps, after some early tournament tweaking, let sail through the 2018 knockout phase. Bayern duo Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez still work the fullback positions despite the fact that they're natural center backs.
Presenel Kimpembe steps in for the out-of-form Samuel Umtiti. UCL-winnning goal scorer Kingsley Coman takes over for the retired Blaise Matuidi. Benzema probably edges out Oliver Giroud at the lead striker spot.
Deschamps hasn't necessarily made a secret out of his adherence to the old approach. We've seen some experimentation when Antoine Greizmann traversed his form dip. It never looked like working and the bookie sincerely doubts we'll see something different here.
The most likely alternation could see Kylian Mbappé move up to the top axis, possibly to pair with Moussa Sissoko. In that case, Ousmane Dembele takes up on the right wing. German fans hope he'll make this mistake.
The Talisman—N'Golo Kante
The unsung-hero of the 2018 World Championship run actually isn't so "un-sung" after all. Even the casual football fans noticed what a phenomenal job he did winning nearly all of his midfield challenges.
The partnership with Paul Pogba counts as the textbook example of how a double-six set should work. He's had another monster year working with Jorginho in a different set of blue kits over at Stamford Bridge.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy Marcus Thuram, Borussia Mönchengladbach 
Nostalgia Corner
“The Chapeau Tip”
Believe it or not, there was a recent German defeat that Vicey found himself not so pissed off about. The French victory over das Vaterland in the EM 2016 semi-finals yielded zero bitterness.
Germany, coming off the 2014 World Championship, attained the semi-finals. They thus filled the expectations we have of our team. If there was an opponent to knock us out, the 2016 hosts were suitable enough.
Syndicate -Ms from all over the globe wrote in to check on their friendly bookie's status. He proved completely fine. After Deutschland's hard-fought 1-0 defeat of ze French in the 2014 quarters, it felt appropriate that the pendulum should swing the other way.
France's 2-0 win bore no resemblance to the 2018 group-stage-exit, after which I couldn't bring myself to answer the phone for a full day. Getting kicked out of a summer international three fixtures in for the time in 14 years proved a nasty knock. Losing out in the semis is tolerable.
This one counted as a fun experience. Bonne Chance, mes Ames. It was your turn. Glad you had your day. Everything worked out for a Kraut from the Western border.
All of that notwithstanding, don't expect me to answer the phone once Germany is eliminated from this group. Though I expect it, I'll still be as inconsolable as someone who just learned that his father got killed on impact after getting hit by a mac truck.
Portugal—“The Navigators”
When the draw for this group was completed in November 2019, the bookie could only feel as if the non-existent Abrahamic God hated his people.
Are you fucking kidding me? The reigning World and European Champions in the same group? There's no hope.
Somewhere up there in the pantheon of the Football Gods, whoever the non-existent equivalent of Zeus is cast down a lighting bolt straight to the chest.
Woe ist uns. Welcome to Scheißkäse Era 2.0. Löw and Merkel's double exit got delayed a year by corona, but it's still coming. After the French embarrass us at home at München's Allianz Arena, guess who else is coming to a Bavarian-themed Knödel-Dinner?
Another trophy lift anyone?
Sigh. July 13th, 2014 at the Maracana in Rio seems an eternity ago.
As some -Ms will be sure to point out, I've been irrationally scared of the Portuguese in many a tournament. Germany and the Navigators shared a group ahead of the 2014 World Cup. The bookie quivered in fear as he composed Portugal's write up in the group G preview section.
Then this happened....
Indeed. The famous "Müller Rausch". A hat trick in the opening fixture
Who's to say it can't happen again?
Er...that would be me. The odds simply have to crash in at some point. My Vaterland enters this tournament on a four-match-winning streak against this team in major internationals.
We beat them in 2006's third-place playoff, eliminated them in the 2008 Euro quarterfinals, then proceeded to beat them up in the EM 2012 and WM 2014 group stages.
This can't continue.
No, actually. It's not because of him. The now 36-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo remains on top of his game and, in many respects, on top of of the footballing world. He led the Serie A in scoring again this season.
It's the supporting cast that frightens your friendly bookie the most. Damned if these guys a'int scary as hell.
You're looking at Liverpool's Diogo Jota and Athletico's Joao Felix. The two youngsters are in freakishly good form. The future is now. My country fades into footballing obscurity.
Projecting the Portuguese Lineup (4-3-3)
Easy enough to project, but damn devastating nonetheless. Ronaldo works a slight axial suppression these days, though he's not technically what one might term a false nine. Jota and Felix function quite comfortably in their respective lanes.
Fernandes, Pereira, and Fernandes have the link-up axis completely under control. Dortmund's Raphaël Guerreiro controls whatever the hell he pleases. He'll switch, dominate the overlap, or even creep in to snipe ranged efforts. Semedo is capable of the same.
Fernando Santos' XI happens to be the perfectly built constellation to take advantage of the weak rearward German flanks. If we had fullbacks approaching this quality I wouldn't be in such a dark mood. With the obligatory bit of luck, this team could repeat as European Champions.
The Talisman—Cristiano Ronaldo
Duh. Your friendly bookie's harrowingly insipid proclamation that 2016's Euros would constitute Ronaldo's "last hurrah" was based on archaic thinking. Back when footballers pumped their bodies full of Beer and egg salad, the body would break down.
That's not the case for Mr. "My Body is a temple". He's lost nothing. His "last hurrah" won't come for another four tournaments or so. Expect Lewandowski, Ibrahimovic, and Messi to hang around for another eight years as well.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy
André Silva, Eintracht Frankfurt
Twenty-eight league goals for the Eagles of Germany's commercial capital make Silva Eintracht's all-time season record for tallies. He's been nothing short of brilliant; Fredi Bobic's most brilliant acquisition to date.
We'll nevertheless need to qualify that number a bit. Seven goals came on converted penalties. Silva also had a lot of help on a great (unfortunately not Champions' League great) Frankfurt side.
Filip Kostic, Daichi Kamada, Luka Jovic, and Amin Younes aren't here to help him this time.
He could start on this team, but the bookie can't really find a place for him. Silva and Ronaldo upfront would be superfluous. Moreover, Santos would have to sacrifice a winger and change his system.
Raphaël Guerreiro certainly would have been the more impactful pick. Silva looks to continue waiting in the wings for a while longer.
He'll still see plenty of action as a sub and could conceivably get a goal or two here.
Nostalgia Corner
“The Deferred Classic”
Sometimes the bookie gets it spot on. Not often, but it does happen. The much-vaunted Iberian Derby between Spain and Portugal proved a dud in the 2004, 2010, and 2012 Summer internationals.
I went out on a bit of a limb when previewing the 2018 World Cup group stages. An epic was promised and man did the actors involved ever deliver.
Diego Costa's brace and Cristiano Ronaldo's hat trick. Four lead changes. Nacho Monreal's redemptive strike. All of the history involved with CR7 joining Pele, Miroslav Klose, and Uwe Seeler. Fantastic fixture.
Looking up the extended highlights of that one is strongly recommended.
Deutschland—“die Nationalmannschaft”
For obvious reasons, this section doesn't conform to the normal template. Given that your friendly bookie can and will talk about the pride of his until he falls asleep, and indeed after he falls asleep, those not interested in a rant should scroll further down.
Here we are again. Deep into the endless night with another "Group of Death." I honestly never thought we'd see once again in a 24-team-continental championship. There wasn't really one in 2016.
Alas, the ghastly apparition reappears. Time to stare into the nothingness and contemplate the horror of endless oblivion; the meaningless void that snatches all our vain attempts to imbue this life with purpose from us at some point.
Infinite darkness. The eternal disappearance of all accumulated knowledge and well-intentioned deeds.
An old friend of the syndicate pays us a visit. He's been patiently waiting over your shoulder.
He'll come for you as he's come for all. The macabre draws nearer every day. Time only flows in one direction. Fight and rage all you wish. The countdown marches on.
This existence remains one of perpetual decline and decay. No one seems to exemplify that better than Jogi Löw.
Yeah...we're a long way from that. The day that rain poured down on the Arena Pernambuco pitch in Recife on June 24th, 2014. After a Thomas Müller saw the Vaterland past the Americans in the final group stage match, the German press anointed the then 54-year-old Bundestrainer "sexy Jogi".
He looked so very good in the rain on that. Flash forward to 2021. Not even a monsoon could bring back the"sexy Jogi" that so titivated and aroused. The now 61-year-old Bundestrainer traded in debonair for despondent. This is about as grim as it gets.
What a horrifying warning to all of us.
This is what happens when one outstays one's welcome. In life, one doesn't merely fight the encroaching macabre. There's the inevitable decline in relevance as well. It's so very difficult to know when soldiering on is no longer for others, but our own narcissistic selves.
At what point do we cease fighting the "good fight" for the betterment of our fellows and begin descending into the self-entered quest to keep ourselves relevant at all costs? The curse of our intolerably short and painful existence ensures that we arrive at no clear-cut answers.
As the Germans put it, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Try as we might to separate the shallow self-aggrandizement from the deeply benevolent drive to help and contribute, we will err. We will keep erring. Some shall continue making the same mistakes over and over until the infinite darkness calls.
Time for another visit from one of the Syndicate's regular characters. Please welcome the honorable Dr. Hans Beinholz.
The friendly bookie's reliable spirit animal doesn't seem to have the bulk of his work available on YouTube, but we've got one of his better routines available!
That one's for the uninitiated. Pssst...It's a routine. Relax. All is well.
Projecting my Kraut Lineup (4-3-1-2)
So. Mats Hummels and Thomas Müller are back. Löw reversed himself after a year and a half of stubbornly clinging to his failing argument that a workable plan for the future was in place.
The 0-6 defeat to Spain in the final Nations League match last November more or less revealed that there was no such plan, but Löw still insisted that there was right up until after his official resignation in March.
The bookie thinks that they'll both start. Hummels is in much better form than Niklas Süle and Robin Koch. Moreover, Müller's season effectively demands that he join his two Bayern teammates on the top axis.
The lineup above takes into account the late-breaking news that Leon Goretzka won't be ready in time for the opening group stage game. Assuming he can get fit later on, Goretzka will join Kimmich on another "Bayern Axis" ahead of the defense.
Note that there are several solutions to the right-back problem. Kimmich can slot in there and, believe it or not, new Bundestrainer Hansi Flick has successfully deployed Süle at right fullback this season. I think Emré Can, who also surprisingly did well for Dortmund there this season, will get the nod.
Of course, most German fans still think Wolfsburg's Ridle Baku should have been brought along to work at right back. We're also not entirely confident about Robin Gosens starting on the left. Neither was the DFB. That's why they tried to get Stuttgart's Borna Sosa citizenship this month. It came too late.
We'll likely see the former Croatian in the role next time. SC Freiburg's Christian Günter, one helluva surprise pick, might even get a surprise start there. That's how desperate we are for fullbacks. Consider the Lukas Klostermann/Marcel Halstenberg Era dead. It had a nice German ring to it, but ultimately sucked.
All the implacably dark humor of this section aside, it is a good team that has the talent to prove all the dour prognostications wrong. I just happen to think that what axes and planes do exhibit chemistry aren't going to be enough.
Hummels and Rüdiger have had no time to gel. Kroos and Gündogan, extraordinary players in their own right, don't partner all that well. Those are my problems with what I perceive to be the strongest possible lineup. It's quite possible that we'll never see it.
It's the full expectation of this piece that Löw will find a way to somehow muck this up. We do want to see him off on a high note. Bookie still has the tirades at the ready when he sees whatever the Bundestrainer puts forth a week from today. A nation of 80 million prepares for the pain.
Hungary—“The Magical Magyars”
Wonderful times. Zoltan Gera and Balazs Dzsudzak gave us another show before the group stages were out as part of this team's very own six-goal thriller with Portugal.
The co-hosts of this group are not to be dismissed. Lax Hungarian COVID restrictions means that the team's home venue will be packed to full capacity.
Bookie confesses that he's totally forgotten what full capacity at the Puskas looks like. This stadium has hosted several Champions' League knockout ties for Bundesliga teams this season. It's been a sort of home-away-from-home for German football enthusiasts recently.
Grumble. Groan. Grouse. German public health authorities would allow EPL teams to travel to Germany because of the, frankly ridiculous, scare over the so-called "UK-corona-variant". Hence, all the moved fixtures to Budapest.
Looking back, it was all so unscientifically silly. What did it truly matter if German footballers were exposed to a more contagious variant in Leipzig or Budapest? The act of restricting travel over a strain of the virus that, while more contagious, certainly wasn't proven to be more deadly also.....
.....nevermind. Thank you, Pal Dardai. Hertha's Hungarian trainer aptly reminds us that it's time to dispense with the party-killing topics and just sit and smoke cigars.
Dardai and his team beat the virus, beat a strict quarantine, and even beat back the relegation threat. They even beat back Zolt Petry's caveman rant and Jens Lehmann's fat-fingered screw up.
No more weighty nonsense. Inhale and Exhale.
Projecting the Hungarian Lineup (3-5-2)
Okay, to begin with: How cool is it that we have two guys named Attila running the defensive corps? I rather thought that the Attilas might be deployed in attack. Perhaps they will as Leipzig teammates Willi Orban and Peter Gulacsi can keep the back tight all by themselves.
Marco Rossi's 3-5-2 has actually produced some decent results in the last eight months. This construct looked very strong during the qualifying playoff wins against Bulgaria and Iceland. How well it functions without injured cogs Szilveszter Hangya, Zsolt Kalmar, and Dominik Szoboszlai remains to be seen.
They'd be a nice Cinderella tip were it not for those injuries. The attacking duo are also just done; at least insofar as league form is concerned. This should be the one team my Krauts beat after getting officially eliminated on the second group-stage matchday.
The Talisman—Willi Orban
The former FC Kaiserslautern man occupies a special place ion the bookie's heart. He's a good Pfälzer boy who had the profound misfortune of being offered a contract by the Red Bull GmBh.
No one is perfect. The former Germany U21 international serves as this team's inverted pivot rock.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy
Roland Sallai, SC Freiburg
I very much still like both Orban and Gulacsi in spite of their Leipzig commitments. Mainz's Adam Szalai is also a stand up character for whom his colleagues rightly organized a revolt last year.
We'll go with Roland here as it at least gives me a chance to talk about my Breisgauer.
Freiburg is the place to be for everything from uplifting football to immaculate baroque chamber music. Sallai usually plays a bit deeper in Christian Streich's tactical configurations.
He should work up alongside Szalai (pronounced the same way, incidentally) for this team. A rare blue-chipper for the Schwarzwalsverein, he might land a big transfer if he has a successful tournament.
Nostalgia Corner
“All Sixes”
Another six-goal thriller involving the Portuguese to close out this segment in the last of our preview sections. This gem was alluded to above when discussing the 2016 tourney.
Vicey’s Fearless Group Prediction (3 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) France
2) Portugal
3) Deutschland
4) Hungary
Overall Championship Odds
France (Straight Up)
Portugal (Straight Up)
Deutschland (NO BETS)
Hungary (12 to 1)
Round of 16 Odds
France (NO BETS)
Portugal (NO BETS)
Deutschland (NO BETS)
Hungary (3 to 1)
Quarterfinal Odds
France (NO BETS)
Portugal (NO BETS)
Deutschland (NO BETS)
Hungary (6 to 1)
Semifinal Odds
France (Straight Up)
Portugal (Straight Up)
Deutschland (NO BETS)
Hungary (8 to 1)
