Some tournament we've got going, eh brothers?
Great to hear from all of those who have already checked in. Don't hesitate to reach out.
You know full well that your friendly bookie keeps all lines of communication open at this time of year. Wink. Wink.
Your next set of lines takes you through Saturday. We're dropping just a tad early so that the bookmaker can focus his fully on his country's opening group stage match this evening. Tonight's daily will feature a full recap of the Nationalmannschaft's debut against the French.
Just like in the first round, the Berlin hero joins the bookie as musical guest in presenting these lines. As we continue to work on the mobile version of this blog, the bookie solicits some technical assistance from his members.
Can you see Paul happily spinning away?
If the answer is "no", I'll have to (sigh) continue to work on the HTML coding. Let me know. You can always jam along with the German techo, check out highlight reels of the players, and relive some of the best moments from tournaments past by clicking "view web version" if you're reading on your phone.
For those just here to see if they can increase their bank, your bookie has a few tasty specials on offer. We've an unprecedented three upset specials and a further three straight picks on the board. We're banking on some big surprises as the tournament kicks into high gear.
Hope everyone's having a great Summer. There's still plenty of awesome football ahead of us. The festivities have only just begun.
With my man Paul providing the soundtrack, we're in the best hands possible to "rock some more lines"
Wednesday, June 16th
Finland vs. Russia
The real history rivalry gets us started in the second round. Although, no one should consider missing England-Scotland on Friday, this one constitutes the true "geo-political fault line" fixture. Long before there was even such a thing as the Iron Curtain, the Finns were the first Russian breakaway republic. The persistent, and franks sad, territorial politics intruding into this tournament should swing your sympathies over to the owls.
Like most scouters, your friendly bookie found it exceedingly difficult to concentrate on events following Christian Eriksen's collapse on Saturday. Most footballing publications declined to publish player assessments of Denmark-Finland and most football fans could only maintain partial focus during Belgium-Russia. What does strike me as significant is that Joel Pohjanpalo getting off the mark early counts as a huge development for the Huujakat.
The Russo-Nordics now have two strikers riding high in confident form. The Golden Eagles barely have one. Artem Dzyuba remains capable of banging one out in more than one sense of the word. His supporting cast nevertheless remains bang average. Keeper Anton Shunin had himself a nightmare day against the Antwerp Devils and Stanislav Cherchesov has to Igor Akinfeev to turn to.
We have our very first UPSET ALERT. Right in front of the home crowd.
THE LINE: Finland +1 Goal
Wales vs. Turkey
vs. 
Whew. A pair of legitimately bad teams here. About the only positive thing one can say about Rob Page's dragons is that he barely managed to build a better lineup than the bookie did. A lumbering 4-1-4-1 still functioned like Grade junk until around the 65th minute. It's difficult to say whether the Cymru lacked the guile or the players to go forward as it basically boiled down to an ugly mixture of both.
Page needs a new center-halve partnership after Chris Mepham and Joe Rodon were both wretched. Joe Rodon as the midfield anchor constitutes a flop. Right back Connor Roberts probably needs to be benched. I guess one could say that, in comparison to all these busts, Daniel James and Ben Davies did a halfway decent job working overlaps up the left. Naturally, that's not saying much.
Turkish Maestro Senol Güneş has his own problems. The legendary Turkish trainer had to ditch his own 4-1-4-1 after the Italians made a keep-away mockery out of it. His later-game gambit illustrated just how few back-up options he has. Too few midfield stabilizing options on this team. All the second and third axis players are more offensive minded.
The Ay-Yidlizilar should still be able to prevail based on an overall edge in talent. Given that we're dealing with the two teams in this competition in the biggest disarray, don't expect the most optically pleasing match. Prepare for fugly football.
THE LINE: Turkey +1 Goal
Italy vs. Switzerland
vs. 
Alright, Azzuri faithful. Bookie wants his money back. You've had your fun. Now it's time to pay the tactically obsessed piper. I divine quite a few problems with your rather clunky 4-3-3. Mancini's men located some creative swagger late on after puttering around like a Fiat without a muffler for most of the opening match. The incredible 23-match-unbeaten run and 810 minutes of clean sheet football must come to an end at some point.
A convincing scoreline notwithstanding, bookie still isn't convinced by a team that doesn't have a reliable star forward. Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne didn't look like power actors despite their tallies. Daniel Beradi appeared strong, but he remains a mere placeholder for Marco Verratti. Mancini will also probably stick with a semi-injured Alessandro Florenzi, much to his own detriment.
Vladimir Petkovic threw away three sure points with his overly-conservative tactical re-format in the first group stage match. He won't make the same mistake again. Moreover, the Swiss manager only needs to follow clear signs in terms of rebuilding the attack. Fassnacht, Gavranovic, and Ruben Vargas can work the top of a 4-3-3 trident. A confident Breel Embolo then pulls the strings behind them.
It should be a fairly tight match and one could easily see the Italian's prevailing on a set-piece. The group favorites maintain a significant advantage in the air and will get multiple bites of the cherry on corners. One reason we're going to tip the sensational here is that the bookie really felt the dead-ball draw ups (not to mention the counter-press, are still far behind where this team needs them at this stage.
UPSET ALERT!
THE LINE: Switzerland +1 Goal
Thursday, June 17th
North Macedonia vs. Ukraine
vs.
Plenty of positives for Andriy Shevchenko to build upon after the narrow 2-3 defeat to the Dutch. Key actors Roman Yaremchuk and Andriy Yarmolenko found the back of the net in the loss. Hopes for a successful tournament hinged on those two getting some skin in the game quickly. Note that the totally languid debuts for Aleksandr Zinchenko, Mykola Shaparenko, and Marlos Romero remain a cause for concern. There's much work to be done.
We should see some an effective enough minnow capture here, though I'll augur that it will take at least 45 minutes for the UKR 4-5-1 to comfortably wear down the inverted Macedonian 3-5-2. It may be a match prone to lulls. All the same, do resist the temptation to hop on social media. So many Greeks aren't even close to forgiving the former Yugoslav republic for appropriating the name of their 4th century B.C.E conqueror's territory. Sometimes we just can't move on.
Shevchenko's 4-1-4-1 doesn't look at all threatening. I also think, comparatively speaking, we're looking at a far less talented side than the one that finished dead last in the competition five years ago. Those intuitively feeling the vibes of the Northern Irish upset from Euro 2016 or even that group-stage flatline from the 2012 EM may want to go with the upset pick here.
Bookie will even furnish you with a high line.
THE LINE: Ukraine +2 Goals
Denmark vs. Belgium
Here comes the one most sports betting sites have already taken off the board. Honestly, how in the hell can one hope to handicap the psychological state of the Danish team? They just experienced 15 minutes of horror as their teammate fought for his life on the pitch. Is there truly any way of coming back from that? Things suddenly look pretty dour for the team your friendly bookie fearlessly tipped to take the group.
I'm fairly certain that the "play for Eriksen" dynamic won't work. Life never resembles a Hollywood script. Any romantic notion of Martin Braithwaite huddling up his up lads Burt-Reynolds-style or Simon Kjaer going full-blown Al Pacino needs to be junked. We'll see a still frazzled team tentatively attempt to insert themselves into this match. They'll need to survive an early onslaught before anything else happens.
The real question concerns whether Kasper Hjulmand possesses a tactical plug in to account for Eriksen's absence. With Daniel Wass already deputized on the back line, I think he has to bring in Mathias Jørgensen as a defensive anchor and revert to a back-five. Højbjerg pairs with Delaney just ahead. In theory, this could prove sufficient to hold off Martinez's 3-4-2-1 spread for a time. If the Copenhagen hosts can keep their guests from running away with matters early, they can stay in the game.
A worrying premonition tells me we might be in for some late heartbreak here. I'll fend off the emotional foreboding and tip a draw. Call this a "semi-upset alert."
THE LINE: Pick em'
Netherlands vs. Austria
Haven't had the chance to check out the Dutch newspapers, but it's safe to assume that Dutch trainer Frank de Boer continues to takes a lot of heat for his decision to ditch the 4-3-3 in favor of the 5-3-2 so close to the start of the tournament. Even if the sparkling Denzel Dumfries debut goal in many respects vindicated him for moving to a more wingback-reliant approach, a rabid footballing press corps starved of meaningful international football for seven years won't let up easy.
Your friendly bookie can tell you that the German press has eased up on one of their own. ÖFB-trainer Franco Foda enjoys the benefit of the doubt in his home country. Everyone had their fingers hovering over the keys in preparation for a condemnatory rant when they saw how Foda initially set his team up. Now we're pleased to fall back into the comfy, if not somewhat cliched, narrative that a tournament trainer almost inadvertently stumbled upon his best XI.
Bear this in mind when considering whether to bet against the bookie here. I'm acting on the assumption that Foda will keep David Alaba in midfield and maintain the right dagger-stab midfield diamond with Marcel Sabitzer playing as the ten. The more experienced Arnautovic and Gregoritsch are my two strikers on a team I can't resist hypothetically coaching myself.
Gentlemen, you have your unprecedented third UPSET ALERT of the round. Do with it as you please.
THE LINE: Austria +1 Goal
Friday, June 18th
Sweden vs. Slovakia
vs. 
Janne Andersson didn't exactly conform to the bookie's idealized personnel moves in the opening group stage fixture against Spain. The Swedish trainer nevertheless demonstrated that he does know how to lock it down against a heavily favored opponent. The standard 4-4-2 collapsed back into an astute 7-2-1 at times; one that looked to be carefully calibrated to shut down the Spanish short-passing-game in precisely the right wide channels.
Watching on the ever-revealing overhead tactical cam, one could see how Sebastian Larsson and Victor Lindelhöf always quickly partnered up to eliminate options whenever the Spaniards advanced down their own left. On the other flank, Berg Danielson, and Augustinsson swarmed to bump Ferran Torres off the ball. The less intricate marking on the Swedish right were the main reason why Dani Olmo had such a great game and Marco Llorente often found space on the overlap.
To put it into less wonkish terms for the more casual bettor, trust the Swedish Blaugults in this tournament. With precision tactics like this, they're poised to go deep into the tournament again just as they did three years ago. Andersson has it all figured out keeping his younger and more potent attacking weapons in reserve early. I think we'll see the likes of Isak, Quaison, and Kulusevski begin to emerge here.
Slovak tactics remain an absolute mess. Bookie has little qualms about setting a high line for the competition's quintessential defensive team.
THE LINE: Sweden +2 Goals
Croatia vs. Czech Republic
vs. 
So very hard to escape the haunting shades of 2012 here as the Czechs have the feel of a wildly capricious side again. Riding about as high as they have been since 2004, one must take the momentum factor into account. Despite the fact that Schick and Coufal were the only two truly superb performers on the pitch, Silvhavy's men can still parlay their propulsive force over against a Vatrenti side rife with problems.
There's just nothing good to say about the Croatian debut. No one in the checkered jersey handled Zlatko Dalic's highly complex 4-1-4-1 rotative scheme well. Andrej Kramaric, Ante Rebic, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic came nowhere close to getting the clockwork right. As touched upon in the dailies, the 2018 World Cup runners up grapple with a visibly disconcerting post-Mario Mandzukic identity crisis.
We'll still stick with the Blazers to sort it out in time against an opponent exhibiting a start talent deficit. The Czechs can be considered lucky to have beaten the Scots by such a wide margin on day four. the losing side turned in by far the better performance. Bookie very much likes Modric & Co. to get back on track here.
THE LINE: Croatia +2 Goals
England vs. Scotland
vs.
Know that your friendly bookie exercised great care in setting the line for the monster match at Wembley. Before getting to the reasons we're making it a pick, a quick friendly reminder from the friendly bookie: All of my -Ms are expected to correct and amateur bar-room analysts who claim that this match constitutes the first meeting of the "great historic rivalry" in 23 years. No, no, no a thousand times no.
The women of these two core footballing nations met just two summers ago. I'm relying on you guys who have stuck with me through six syndicate chapters dedicated to the women's game. Sell women's football to everyone you meet! Whip out your phone, make sure you're on the "web version" and show off the YouTube embeds from the Group B, Group C, and Group D previews. That's what they're there for.
Alles klar? Good. I assure you Friday's match isn't a pick for any sentimental reasons. After taking some time to consider it, I think a Scottish 5-1-2-2 with James Forrest and Connor McGregor starting over Scott McTominay and Liam Cooper can absorb an English 5-2-3 that Gareth Southgate still needs to tinker with. Andrew Robertson and Stephen O'Donnell can take care of Mount and Phillips respectively.
Raheem Sterling remains one to keep an eye on. If one considers his performance in full, he appears in some of the best form of his career. Excellent movements and freakishly good spatial awareness characterized his performance. I'm a little less sanguine about Kane, Phil Foden, and Declan Rice. Key portions of the St. George XI aren't clicking yet. I think they'll continue to be quiet.
We've also got that highly problematic left-back situation. Trippier didn't work. Switching him with Kyle Walker seems the likely solution, something I think Dykes, Christie, and perhaps Ché Adams can take advantage of. It should be a fun one with at least two goals. At the end of the day, however, I don't think these two teams will be separated.
THE LINE: Pick em'
Saturday, June 19th
Hungary vs. France
vs. 
The bookie is flying half-blind here as I've only had the chance to watch one of these teams in action. Absolutely loved watching the Magyars play the Navigators in full capacity crowd at the Puskas. Hungary lined up in the 3-5-2 that I projected. Marco Rossi delighted me even more by selected the Bundesliga duo of Adam Szalai and Roland Szalai as the two strikers.
The evenly deployed second support axis of Laszlo Kleinheisler, Adam Nagy, and Andras Schäfer stonewalled some of the best players in the world. It took the reigning European Champions 82 minutes and three substitutions for Fernando Santos to get them unstuck. Poor Willi Orban. His performance deserved better than that deflection and soft late penalty.
We've probably seen the last of the fighting spirit from the Group F underdogs. Buoyed by their alcohol filled crowd for as long as possible, the balloon is now most assuredly popped. Barring one of those characteristic French implosions, this one screams blowout.
THE LINE: France +3 Goals
Deutschland vs. Portugal
vs. 
Once again, we're setting a tip with only one team's worth of evidence. Without having the benefit of seeing what the latest slapdash incarnation of my beloved Vaterland looks like, I'm still pessimistic as all hell. I see now way past that powerful Portuguese 4-1-2-3. It's even more devastating than my draw up. I don't think Ronaldo is working a suppressed pivot at all.
It might be an ugly humiliation, but I'll permit you a chance to cash in on my Summer of footballing discontent. Get your straight pick wagers in on a match that I'm mostly convinced that die Nationalmannschaft will drop by multiple goals. The end of the Löw Era can't come soon enough. Just a little bit more pain to plow through.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'll need to perfect my personal nightmares of the Ronaldo leap jump. Expecting some rather lucid dreams this evening after smoking a full pack of cigarettes through Germany-France.
THE LINE: Pick em'
Spain vs. Poland
vs. 
Polska, Polska, Polska. Okay. We're done. No more false hope from your friendly bookie. I'm genuinely sorry that I bothered instilling it in the first place. Should have stuck with my initial bleak prognosis. While it mostly came from a place of love, understand that there were some positive signs emanating from Paulo Sousa's camp. It wasn't totally unreasonable to assume that the Czerwoni trainer had the basic tenets of a plan in place.
Naturally, we found out later that he had no such thing. He's nowhere even close. What a disastrous idea it was to change the coaching regime so close to the competition. We've little choice but to call curtains on the Polish tournament right here and right now. You'll be the first team eliminated after a prime Spanish spanking.
The bookie will reiterate that he finds Enrique's debut tactics more than adequate to get the job done in the context of this tournament. La Roja will get progressively stronger. Soon enough there will be no more talk about the team lacking a killer-instinct finisher. I find such talk strange to begin with as Fernando Torres and David Villa weren't exactly clinical themselves.
Morata bags a brace here and everyone shuts up.
THE LINE: Spain +2 Goals
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
