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With warm preemptive congratulations to Kanzlerin Baerbock :)
Your friendly bookie wholeheartedly endorses a German velvet revolution. Let's go Europe!
Day 13: Recap
Bookie’s Stats—
Spread: 11-25
Straight up: 15-14-7
Oh dear christ. That's what Germans call a "Zitternspiel". Trembling hands and jangled nerves. There won't be many (if any) car horns going off across the Bundesrepublik tonight. You'll hardly know that it's tournament time in the Vaterland. Through to the knockouts with a feeling that we don't even deserve it.
Spare us the congratulatory handshake tonight. Müller has the right idea in that photograph. This is no time to be celebrating. We need to talk. There's work to be done. If the country is to unite behind this team after all, we'll have to do better than that.
We live to fight another day. Okay. No sense in raising one's arms up too high.
That's about as high as we'll go for now. Our attention, like Kroos' eyes, idly drifts elsewhere. Our thoughts turn to the future. Should you care to snap us back to the present moment, you must inspire us. It matters not if this comes in a losing effort. Inspiration is what we expect. That's your task.
S.S.S. Tactical Breakdown
As was the case in the Day Five and Day Nine Recaps, this is a Deutschland Day. You know the drill, gentlemen. While steadfastly committed to covering every last lineup used by all countries in this tournament, your friendly bookie focuses solely on his home country when it's matchday in the Vaterland.
Tonight we have a third 3-4-3 to look at. Löw and staff again tried to innovate within the context of the same formation. One personnel change with Leroy Sané replacing a bruised Müller.
Lineup—Germany—Match Three (3-4-3) (6/23/2021)
Important to note that this is how it debuted. Sané was most assuredly on the left, a side he plays on infrequently. Gnabry worked central this time. He remained the man assigned to a suppressed, centralized pseudo-false-nine role until being subbed off in the 57th. Sané and Havertz switched sides at the half.
Given the amount of time Matthias Ginter spent pressing high, one assumes an inverted pivot role for Hummels. This would actually make a great deal of sense since the veteran can still supply useful verticals from that far deep and those of us who follow him closely know that he's lost a lot of his youthful pace.
In terms of the notion of trying it this way, the bookie isn't overtly critical of the plan. It was no secret that Marco Rossi would stick to his 3-5-2 low-block. There wasn't any sense in changing the constellation as the team would have all the time in the world in its approach play.
Flipping Havertz and Sané was worth a shot. A small alteration like this could achieve the obvious primary objective. Namely, scoring early and forcing the Hungarian ranks into disarray. Moreover, Löw correctly predicted that Rossi would return to his own inverted stagger. Solid mirror matching.
The first ten minutes were acceptable. Hummels got a fine ball in for Kimmich over the top. Kroos showed improvement on his set piece deliveries, which have exhibited a dire need of extra work on the training pitch through the first two matches.
Even after Szalai put the guests ahead, there didn't seem to be any need to panic. Apart from looking more directionless without Radio Müller on the pitch, the DFB-XI were trying things to beat the block. A nice cutback from Havertz in the 17th and Hummels' header off the post four minutes later suggested the equalizer would be forthcoming.
The willingness to contest hard physical battles on the ground and in the air was there. Concern began to creep in as the half hour mark approached. Kroos' deliveries were getting sloppy again, as we're Havertz's touches. Ginter and Kimmich couldn't seem to communicate their overlaps on the right. This led to several scary Hungarian counters.
The work of the three players on the top axis grew increasingly less stellar and bordered on the lazy. One can obviously forgive some of it as the skies split open around the 35th. Players had to be a bit more cautious amid the deluge. Anything could happen in these conditions. One ultimately had to give the attacking trio a pass as we were fortunate to preserve the scoreline amid this thunderous cloud burst.
One had the sense that they would work it out. The sight of Löw and Müller involved in intense discussions on the sideline offered some hope. We had two managers and a full coaching staff on the job. A substitution at the half wasn't needed. Flipping Havertz and Sané would suffice.
The first ten minutes after the restart, however, were run at far too slow a tempo. Our Nationalmannschaft played at their worst. Despite the more favorable conditions, the shape of the team wilted. More poor touches from Havertz negated his decent effort of the turn in the 52nd.
Kimmich, Kroos, and Gosens had no clue how to execute give-and-gos and began flinging forward desperation efforts. Sané, who ended up having an atrocious second half, began what was a series of bizarrely bad hijinks with the ball.
Goertzka replaced Gündogan in the 58th. This felt like the absolute wrong move, given that it was Havertz and Sané whom Löw really needed to get off the pitch. The very poor play continued for another ten minutes. Now matters got really troublesome.
Seconds after Gulacsi (with, admittedly, some fantastically focused work from Hummels) gifted the Jungs an equalizer, the horrible defending and uncharacteristically panicky rush out from Neuer put us back on the brink of elimination.
Grades—Deutschland (Match Three)
Leon Goretzka | A- (2,5) |
Jamal Musiala | A- (2,5) |
Mats Hummels | A- (2,5) |
Toni Kroos | B+ (3,0) |
Thomas Müller | B (3,5) |
Timo Werner | B (3,5) |
Kai Havertz | B- (3,5) |
Robin Gosens | B- (3,5) |
Joshua Kimmich | B- (3,5) |
Serge Gnabry | C+ (4,0) |
Matthias Ginter | C (4,5) |
Ilkay Gündogan | D (5,0) |
Manuel Neuer | D (5,0) |
Antonio Rüdiger | D (5,0) |
Leroy Sané | D- (5,5) |
Everyone except Kevin Volland gets a grade this time. There are only two starters--Kroos and Hummels--in the top six. To my eyes they were solid and the result could not have been accomplished without them. Otherwise, it was the subs who swung the match.
A pair of starters receive what may be some misleading marks. Ginter got caught napping on the second Hungarian goal, but gets some props for his pushes and ideas. Havertz--incidental scorer of the first German goal--also had a wholly unconvincing performance propped up by that tally.
Ugh. It's entirely possible that we'll see a much better team next time. Five days of rest and preparation can make a world of difference. Just like on Day Five, the bookie will supply a projection of where I hope we're headed.
Lineup—Germany—PROJECTED (4-3-3)
Gortezka and Kimmich reunite on the midfield axis, hopefully both healthy and prepared to play as they do for Bayern. Radio Müller takes it a bit easy with the knee knock. We need him back and fully fit to coordinate the orchestra next time.
We return to a back-four, where Ginter remains the best option as the right fullback. Sigh. It would be really nice to have Ridle Baku on the team right about now.
Löw has justifications for benching Sané, Gündogan, and Havertz. Welcome back to Werner on the left with Gnabry mimicking the right Leipzig striker from the 2019/20 campaign.
That's where the bookie hopes we're headed in terms of an XI capable of challenging the Three Lions away at Wembley. Can't rely on an officiating fiasco this time as VAR is in place.
S.S.S. Salute to Fallen Comrades
Hungary—"The Magical Magyars"
-3 games played
-3 goals scored
Previous Hungary Tactical Coverage:
They'll be back soon enough. One has to like their 2022 WM qualification chances. Gulacsi and Orban certainly played below their level this tournament. Marco Rossi nevertheless has a good system in place.
Lineup—Hungary—PROJECTED (3-5-2) (5/7/2021)
It wasn't hard to predict, even if the bookie got some of the personnel choices and the extent to which it would be an ultra-defensive formation wrong. The idea to place Orban in between the two Attila's might have stemmed from a misguided desire to fit a Hun joke in somehow.
Lineup—Hungary—Match One (4-3-3) (6/15/2021)
At least I got the inverted pivot at the back right. This really worked well in the opening fixture against the Portuguese. The team was most unlucky to have Ronaldo & Co. run up the score late. Never had the chance to see Adam Nagy in action before. Liked what I saw overall from him.
Lineup—Hungary—Match Two (3-5-2) (6/19/2021)
Drop the invert as we move to a really low block against the French. In contrast to the first group stage fixture, it really looked like Rossi's men were lucky to escape with a draw last Saturday. I thought he might reinstate the invert against the Germans.
Lineup—Hungary—Match Three (4-3-3) (6/23/2021)
He did. Nagy also worked very close to his axial partners; much more so than in the first two matches. Schäfer and Kleinheiseler also worked surprisingly worked farther afield. It was as close as they came to the strikers all tournament.
Although the Germans had plenty of time and space to set up the attack, today's team was much better set up for the counter. It almost worked. Excellent, excellent match from Roland Sallai of SC Freiburg. The Breisgauer may have problems holding onto him after this competition.
“Riffs of the Day”—Day Thirteen
Reader: Yep. Löw is definitely wearing elastic stretch pants.
Vicey: I know, 5-M. At least he's had the decency to wear collared shirts again this tournament.
Vicey: Zing, 33-M. Zing to you. That's the only airline joke flying at the moment. You should put in an application at Southwest.
Reader: You're right, Vicey. Those black uniforms are kind of dour.
Vicey: Tell me about it. I've been saying it for years, 11-M. I've been bitching about it since the last time they wore a black alternate kit in the 2010 WM.
It keeps getting worse. Context, if you will.
Vicey: I know, 88-M. They've got the chants and drums going. We've still got our COVID masks on.
Reader: Going to weigh in on the rainbow flag-controversy, Vicey?
Vicey: Don't particularly want too. Just because some Hungarian fans still employ homophobic chants and Germans footballers have been wearing rainbow armbands and kits for years doesn't mean that this match counts as a "good vs. evil". One also shudders to think that we're feeding a "civilized vs. savages" dynamic. That's counterproductive.
We've made progress. They'll make progress. Things change for the better at a rapid clip.
I'm a progressive person who tends to shun symbolic gestures. Ideally, I can influence things with my behavior towards others. It's an infinitesimally small influence in the grand scheme of things, but it seems to work better than making others more intransigent by fueling the culture wars.
Tell you what, 129-M. I'll express my support with the closing picture. One does hope that queer sportsman end up finding more acceptance in the locker room. It's an important issue, though not one that's entirely up to us to influence. We can only do so on the leagues that we play in.
This very nice German girl bids you a colorful farewell until the next round of lines.
(P.S. you can probably take the mask off now, Mädel. If you're vaccinated, show your pride!)
