The sacred “Blitz Phase” is upon us.
Get set for all drama of simultaneous kickoffs as the party continues all across Europe.
The next set of lines will take you through Monday. Your friendly bookie has his individual lines set for the next six fixtures. Additionally, you can bet against the bookmaker on his final standings projections for the first three groups.
Good news for those who insist on reading the subpar mobile version of this blog. All the YouTube embeds in the group stage preview sections are fixed. You can now see what the bookie kept prattling on about the mastery of Kraftwerk. Know that it still might not make a great deal of sense.
The pre-tournament sections belonged to Germany's great musical pioneers of yesteryear. Lines posts are still co-hosted by the greatest German spinner active today. Give it up for my man Paul!
Perfection, even if he's a Dortmund fan for some reason. Union could use your support over in Köpenick this year! How about a session over at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei? East Berlin's Bundesliga club already has the logistics in place for proper public gatherings. They won't cancel on you.
Alright, cherished members. Bookie is off to watch his beloved Vaterland blow it again with an unchanged lineup. If you need a review of the sportsbook's group prediction betting rules, check out this year's chapter post.
Sunday, June 20th
Group A Final Kickoff @ 18:00 (UTC +1)
The Christian Sabbath belongs to solely Rome and Baku in the "Italian Calculations" group. Still plenty for Mancini's men to play for here, though a draw against Wales will prove sufficient for them to finish first and face a weak runner up from Group C in the knockouts. A "Gijon Game" remains a distinct possibility here as a draw sees the Welsh through as well. Beware a 0-0.
If you'd care to flick over to Switzerland-Turkey, you're more likely to see a lively match. Two countries fighting for their tournament lives should fight hard to the finish. The better action looks to take place in "The Land of Fire". The Turks may over-perform in front of a supportive crowd in Azerbaijan....or they might totally crumble just as they did on Wednesday.
This group turned out to be surprisingly weak. Many had their sleeper pick coming out of here. If things shake out as the bookie expects, Wales will secure automatic advancement despite losing to the Italians. The Swiss require a blowout to overcome goal differential and the the Azzuri will take their foot off the gas.
Italy vs. Wales
vs.
One sees no need for Roberto Mancini to tinker with his 4-3-3. The Squadra playing in this system seems to genuinely enjoy their football. This incarnation of the Azzuri doesn't resemble what many of us international football fanatics have come to expect. It's up-tempo, flashy and scintillating. Strange stuff from the land of Catennacio.
A few injuries will lead to rotations. Nothing of real concern here. Francesco Acerbi and Federico Bernadeschi can step up to fill the back. The team as a whole won't miss a beat. Otherwise, all the regular starters should play. Perhaps Pessina gets the go over Barella. Immobile, Locatelli, Insigne, and Beradi get pulled early after it's settled.
Wales remain an easy team to read. Rob Page, possibly not quite cognizant of the fact that he has the right to make decisions just yet, will probably roll out the exact same XI. We know his tactics well. Some will trot out the "which Welsh side will show up?" cliché. Since it's really a matter of the strength of the opponent, it's clear which one.
THE LINE: Italy +1 Goal
Switzerland vs. Turkey
vs.
Your friendly bookie never had a great deal of faith in the Turks; not without Faith Terim anyway. It did astonish many, including the bookie, to discover just how painfully bbad Senol Günes' broken 4-1-4-1 functions. The German blood-brothers may be the worst team in the tournament. They could easily finish dead last without scoring a single goal.
Vladimir Petkovic's Swiss are no prize either. This also served as a most unexpected development. The Swiss trainer has almost backed himself into a corner with his latest set of tactics. Changes are needed, yet it counts for quite the assumption that the players have the energy and focus left to execute something radically different.
We'll tip that they find a way without engineering the needed blowout.
THE LINE: Switzerland +1 Goal
Initial Group Projection (5/28/2021)
1) Italy
2) Switzerland
3) Turkey
4) Wales
Final Group Projection (6/19/2021)
(3 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Italy (Advance)
2) Wales (Advance)
3) Switzerland (alive on four points)
4) Turkey (Eliminated)
Monday, June 21st
Group C Final Kickoff @ 18:00 (UTC +1)
We're headed over to Amsterdam and Bucharest first for the conclusion of the "Hall of Mirrors" Group. The officially eliminated North Macedonians kick off against the confirmed advancing Dutch. That match couldn't be more meaningless as we know that Frank de Boer's Oranje are already assured of first place in the group.
Holland know when and where they'll be playing when the knockouts commence. The dangerous-looking get slotted in for the third round-of-16 encounter in Bucharest on June 27th. Settle in for a "Book-a-rest" with a completely different XI and the black dutch alternate kit.
The other kickoff thankfully exhibits no "Gijon Game" potential. A draw does Franco Foda's Burschen no good. Ukraine would still snatch the automatic spot on goal differential. It might still be the case that Austria locks down to preserve a level scoreline late. Four points almost surely ensures advancement.
North Macedonia vs. Netherlands
vs.
Really wish I could invoke bookie privilege and take this one off the board. Since I'm a glutton for punishment, we'll stick to the tradition of keeping all fixtures up until the final. Dutch supporters might get their coveted 4-3-3 here. De boer can easily build one with a run-out for Donyell Malen, Cody Gapko, and Luuk de Jong.
The Oranje reserves still feature a vicious attack. Moving a bit further down, they stand to lose a lot of midfield battles with Davy Klaassen and Ryan Gravenberch working as fasteners. Somehow, I like the lynxes to display some of the fight we saw last time whilst doing a significantly better job of staying defensively organized.
Gentlemen, enjoy an UPSET ALERT.
THE LINE: North Macedonia +1 Goal
Ukraine vs. Austria
A very even match on paper renders it nigh on impossible to separate these teams. The "small-ball" Germans have so much potential, but your friendly bookie genuinely hated what he saw from Franco Foda in the second round. So many defensive mistakes in a cascade of failures. If David Alaba isn't on, everyone else just seems to screw up their marking assignments too.
At this stage in the tournament, it's very hard to see Foda finding a way to set them up properly. We'll probably see Alaba higher up, yet still saddled with track-back responsibilities that will be too much to handle. This shall yield a knock-on effect, allowing even a team as uni-dimensional as the Ukrainians to finish them off.
Not a happy line to set. The bookie won't be mad about being proven wrong here.
THE LINE: Ukraine +1 Goal
Initial Group Projection (6/1/2021)
4) North Macedonia
Final Group Projection (6/19/2021)
(2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
4) North Macedonia (Eliminated)
Group B Final Kickoff @ 21:00 (UTC +1)
Over to Copenhagen and St. Petersburg in for what looks to be a sad conclusion to the "Shimmering Northern Lights" Group. Blast. The majesty of Kraftwerk's most melodiously pleasing song guided your friendly bookie's hand as he composed his initial assessment. In fairness, the Danes truly did have the best team in this assemblage. The understandable lack of focus cut the legs out from underneath them.
Difficult to compose something here without tripping on a land mine. Without even realizing it, this writer stumbled into subliminal hell. "Everyone's still alive here," read the first sentence I penned, "but the Danes are on life support". Honestly. That counts as a sporting cliché that no one would think twice about under normal circumstances.
Reading back through what I've just written, even the "cut the legs out" doesn't sit well. Dammit. What was supposed to be the most enjoyable group in the tourney turned into the real "Group of Death". Bookie thinks we're in for a dramatic finish here, with a black cloud nevertheless hovering over the final result.
Russia vs. Denmark
The win. Of that I'm convinced. Based on what the bookie has seen, Kasper Hjulmand has likely reached the point where he's ready to trot out the most electrifying younger components of his kader. Robert Skov Olsen should make an appearance even if he doesn't start. Wind and Dolberg may start up front together.
Contrast this dynamism with the total crap the Ruskies currently skirt by with and one even comes up with a high line. Everything works against the Danes here. They've a minus two goal differential to make up; something they can easily accomplish with the same sort of pacey and emotional start as last time.
Sadly, it just won't be enough. At least we get to enjoy the sendoff.
THE LINE: Denmark +2 Goals
Finland vs. Belgium
Roberto Martinez's Rode Duivels have no need to utilize the full-strength formation we saw later on against the Danes here. The world's #1 ranked footballing country is assured of advancement. Finland could theoretically overtake them for first place with a victory, but there's not that dire of a need for the Belgium trainer to risk too much.
We'll likely behold a three-quarters strength XI to start things off. Martinez won't want to finish second in the group as that translates to a much tougher knockout stage opponent. He can still avoid that fate by drawing here. Bookie predicts as much.
The fixture itself reminds one of that England-Belgium farce on Group H's final day three years ago. Blah.
THE LINE: Pick em'
Initial Group Projection (5/30/2021)
2) Belgium
Final Group Projection (6/19/2021)
(2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) Belgium (Advance)
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
