The knockouts finally arrive!
Thirty-six matches down, 15 to go. Eight countries shed, with eight more headed home after this phase. The stakes get higher, the flags larger, the emotions intenser.
For those -Ms gradually gravitating towards the tournament, you've tuned in just in time to watch my country get eliminated. A sad prognostication, but one your friendly bookie has nevertheless reconciled himself to.
This year's chapter was modeled after the legendary Düsseldorf pan-European Krautrockers "Kraftwerk". Ralf, Karl, Wolfgang, and Florian guided us through the preview sections. Berlin hero Paul van Dyk emceed us through the group stage.
With the Germans now on the verge of being beaten at Wembley, time to turn things over to an English DJ. The bookie makes no secret of his deep admiration for Gareth Emery. Like Kraftwerk and Paul, he's always evolved whilst retaining his cooly austere roots.
Saturday, June 26th
Denmark vs. Wales
vs. 
Such a point borders on the immaterial. Your friendly bookie nevertheless brings it up as a means of emphasizing that Kasper Hjulmand's post-Eriksen tactics have received a great deal more scrutiny than they might of. Few can resist such a charge. Rarely does a tournament manager have to radically reorganize his ranks so quickly and under so much pressure.
That's one reason we've so much coverage on Denmark on the blog. Hjulmand's "Plan A" went completely out the window after the calamitous events of Day Two. The Danish trainer's "Plan B" isn't all that difficult to read. He begins in an up-tempo 3-4-3 designed to grab an early lead. As the match wears on, he generally introduces a sweeper and maneuvers Jannick Verstergaard, Andreas Christensen, and Simon Kjaer into a back-four.
It's all very interesting. Attacking reinforcements usually come in the form of Jens Stryger Larsen on the right wing and two or three fresh attackers to participate in the top axis rotations. The bookie has it all drawn up for you. You can see how Hjulmand did it with Matthias Jensen and Andreas Cornelius in the Day Seven Recap. Amid all the "glory be to football" talk, you can see how he worked it with a repositioned Thomas Delaney and Kasper Dolberg on Day Eleven.
Welsh trainer Rob Page has all the information he needs with respect to cracking the system. What Page lacks, however, is a workable system of his own. After rolling out the exact same 4-2-3-1 in the first two fixtures, Page tried what looked like a 3-4-1-2 against the Italian reserves. It held well against what many consider to be the best team in the tournament and one could make the case that it would have produced a different result were it not for Ethan Ampadu's controversial red card.
Bookie thinks it might have worked almost too well. I'm thinking we're going to see Ramsey behind Bale and David James on a press-centric two striker set. Page knows he needs to keep that top axis in place to give his team a chance. He'll thus sacrifice a defender despite not having either Ampadu or Chris Mepham available on disciplinary suspensions.
This should play right into Hjulmand's hands. He'll get the start he needs and might be able to lock down the central midfield earlier. All of this constitutes a nice roundabout way of saying that everyone should get the result they want here in the highly anticipated encounter that kicks off the knockouts.
Projected Lineups:
“Dreigau Cymru” (3-4-1-2)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up
Gareth Bale brace—2 to 1
Danny Ward howler—2 to 1
THE LINE: Denmark +1 Goal
Italy vs. Austria
vs. 
No, it's not your classic Italian squad. Everyone is fond of saying that as we reflect upon how Catennaccio has been ditched in favor of a more fast-paced, attractive style of modern avant gardé football. This version of the Azzuri, absent far too long from a major international, have greeted us like a breath of fresh air.
Their long streak of not being scored upon almost seems odd given how impressive they are in transition. The 1,000 plus minutes of clean-sheet football doesn't seem to fit the profile of Mancini's brand. One would think that some teams will find a way. There are most certainly teams in this tournament who can. Franco Foda's Austria isn't one of them.
Mancini's tactics take care of matters on both sides of the ball. The former Man City gaffer is, after all, known for his defensive prowess. The 4-3-3 he debuted with keeps a tight midfield triangle designed to eat up traffic and then initiate quick two-three touch play out to the wings. It's efficient at thwarting whilst also deliberately constructed to produce lighting quick counterattacks.
If there's anything standing in the way of the competition's juggernaut here, it's the fact that the Azzuri trainer suddenly finds himself forced to decide whether to integrate a healthy Marco Verrati into his lineup. The successful 4-2-3-1 we saw against Wales means he's abruptly confronted with choices. The wrong organization could lead to some early functionality issues.
In the final analysis, it shouldn't prove much of a problem. Your friendly bookie has, as a Germano-While, been keeping very close tabs on Austria's organization. Simply stated, they don't really have any. Trainer Foda is stabbing in the dark. The 3-4-3 from Day Three featured too many vulnerabilities at the back. The 5-2-3 mirror of the Dutch failed miserably. The 4-5-1 on Day Eleven was, as the bookie couldn't help repeatedly remarking, was just plain fucking weird.
Not really seeing a way through for "Kleindeutschland" here. I can build something competitive, yet have no real faith that Foda can. Mancini has some uncertainties when it comes to injury issues. That means all of dick for a team so deep that the head-coach feels comfortable actively trying to get everyone a few minutes of playing time. Even without Chiellini they should be just fine.
The Italian players pile on a high scoreline, and pile on each other on the pitch.
Projected Lineups:
“Gli Azzurri” (4-2-3-1)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Cheiellini start—Straight Up
Immobile brace—Straight Up
THE LINE: Italy +2 Goals
Sunday, June 27th
Netherlands vs. Czech Republic
vs. 
Frank de Boer finally managed to impress the independent oddsmakers with that nice 3-0 blanking of North Macedonia in the final group stage match. The result sent the Dutch through the group stage undefeated and suddenly everyone is stirring up echoes of that fantastic Euro 2008 squad that dazzled us so.
Having lucid memories of how the Russians ultimately upset that team in the quarterfinals, the bookie cops to still being a bit confused over all the hype. De Boer's Holland beat the weakest team in the tournament in their most recent encounter. How is it that so many perspectives have shifted after that one game?
One possible reason relates to the fact that the 5-3-2 frayed pretty badly in that thrilling 3-2 victory over the Ukrainians on Day Three. Entertainment-wise, many remain convinced that this was still the tournament's best overall game. De Boer's Dutch were less than convincing there and the proceeded to bore the hell out of us with that 7-1-2 variant on Day Seven before Denzel Dumfries broke through.
The bookie contrasts the 7-1-2 with the more stabilizing return to the 5-3-2 in his Day Eleven Recap. All the formations remain intriguing in that de Boer thought out unique positional assignments for Georginio Wijnaldum. On the final group stage day, it appears he found the best one. That's truly why people are suddenly much more excited.
Our last "check in with the Czechs" outlined their rigid 4-2-3-1 on Day Four. Jaroslav Silhavy's boys have been neither moving nor doing much of anything. Each successive performance has been worse. We may be dealing with the worst team to make it through to the elimination stage by a long shot.
Silhavy loses left-back Jan Boril to suspension. He doesn't have a replacement for him or his slumping wingers. Vladimir Darida, Jakub Jankto, and Tomas Kalas have all been dipping hard form wise. Lead striker Patrik Schick, as Bundesliga watchers know, isn't exactly a player who thrives when those behind him tank.
Anything can happen in the knockouts, but it nevertheless seems impossible to foresee a shocker here. Bookie makes a compromise. De Boer's Dutchman roll here before the quarters mark the end of the line.
Projected Lineups:
“The Czech Mates” (4-2-3-1)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 Goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Sevcik start—Straight Up
Schick brace—3 to 1
THE LINE: Netherlands +2 Goals
Belgium vs.
vs. 
What a match this is! The world's #1 ranked footballing country against the defending European Championships. In many respects, it's a pity that it must come so early. Alas, tournament football shall always feature a stronger bracket. This is true irrespective of whether we've a 16, 24, our 32 team competition.
The winner here receives no respite. The dubious privilege of facing the Italians in the quarterfinals awaits. With that in mind, we can expect Roberto Martinez to, as ludicrous as it sounds, hold back a bit here. Kevin de Bruyne will not start if his manager feels that he isn't 100 percent. The €100 million superstar certainly didn't look it against Finland.
Martinez's Red Devils of Antwerp have been lining up in largely the same 3-4-2-1 since the 2018 WM. They've emerged from the group stage unscathed against three opponents that didn't really test them much. We've seen how it looks with second-choice personnel on Day Two against Russia. We've seen how it supposed to look in full force during the second half of the match on Day Seven against Denmark.
Catching up with the Day Eleven encounter against Finland on tape, the bookie observed a flatter 3-4-3 operating a little clunky with eight personnel changes. De Bruyne, Axel Witsel, and Eden Hazard all started, taking time to play themselves into form before coming on late. It seems reasonable to assume that Martinez will go with some of his supposed second choice players in the opening XI here.
Even at its best, the Belgian back-line doesn't feature the youngest or spriest actors. For all the talk of a tactical catastrophe in Portugal's second group stage match against Germany, Fernando Santos kept his back-four on the field against France. Looking past all the refereeing controversy in that fixture, bookie thinks they held together rather well apart from the instance of Benzema's goal. In my opinion, the Navigators aren't so exploitatively simple as many assume.
Bookie took his time building the lineups here. The result definitely pits a pair of potent attacks against one another. One can expect a high scoring affair. While not entirely certain that Santos has gleaned the same useful lessons as I have from the first three matches, I like how the Portuguese attack comes together better. It's a matter of building the right midfield with Renato Sanches and Joao Felix.
In the tourney's first legitimate clash of the heavyweights, bookie's going to top the Iberians. The teams remain fairly evenly matched. If one follows the FIFA rankings, however, that technically means that we have an......
UPSET ALERT!
Projected Lineups:
“De Rode Duivels” (3-4-2-1)
“The Navigators” (4-3-3)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—4 goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—Straight Up
Lukaku brace—Straight Up
De Bruyne start—Straight Up
Bruno Fernandes start—Straight Up
Digo Dalot start—3 to 1
THE LINE: Portugal +1 Goal
Monday, June 28th
Spain vs. Croatia
vs. 
Well....I told you I wasn't worried, didn't I? Did the bookie 'effing well tell you or what? We'll happily trot out that familiar phrase as--in a tourney with so many incorrect auguries--your friendly bookie at least got the Spanish blowout spot on. Europe finally finds itself on the precipice of enjoying Spanish street caravans again.
All the Roja riders should be out in force after the nation's first elimination stage victory in nine years here. That's how confident the bookie is of an imposing victory here. We beheld what beautiful football Luis Enrique's men can play when the pressure is lifted off their shoulders. Wonderful cross-switch combos from Jordi Alba and Gerard Moreno. Pablo Sarabia furnished a frankly sensational performance.
The aspersions cast upon the Spanish team never truly seemed well placed. Everyone seemed to conveniently forget that the COVID quarantine of their captain and talisman Sergio Busquets threw this side off. They were too readily dismissed with the shallow cliché of tiki-taka being a bygone relic. Moreover, the punditry loves to bemoan La Roja's lack of a proven finisher, ignoring the fact that David Villa and Fernando Torres were either absent or slow to start in previous tournaments.
We've not drawn it up for Spain since a quick look near the end of the Day Four Recap. Since then, Enrique's 4-3-3 has improved significantly in terms of chance creation. Players forced to train individually are gelling on the pitch. Sarabia's masterclass on Wednesday likely earns him a starting spot, where he'll serve as an excellent wide partner to the returning Dani Olmo. It all comes together. Can't wait to see Marco Llorente back in action too!
The "Croat Crisis" that we've been tracking in the dailies shows no signs of being fixed in time to rescue the Vatrenti from removal at this stage. If anything, the last set-up against Scotland showed how Zlatko Dalic is still desperately fumbling for a lead striker and not entirely sure of how to build his second and third support axes. Dejan Lovren's suspension is also huge. Dalic will have to move Gvardiol inside and forfeit the attacking threat on the left.
With all the attacking personnel rotations, forecasting the Croat lineup proves quite difficult. One runs into serious problems there too as there just isn't a good option on the right. Bookie builds without Andrej Kramaric even though I happen to--with a certain amount of Bundesliga bias--happen to think him the better choice. It probably wouldn't add up with him either. Any way on cleaves it up, signs point to a Spanish victory.
Projected Lineups:
“La Furia Roja” (4-3-3)
“Blazing Vatrenti” (4-2-3-1)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Gerard Moreno start—Straight Up
Ferran Torres start—Straight Up
Andrej Kramaric start—Straight Up
Luka Modric brace—3 to 1
THE LINE: Spain +2 Goals
France vs. Switzerland
vs. 
"Liberté, égalité, passivité". Indeed the bookie's selected favorites to win it all have ended up being something of a dud. That's an least how it outwardly appears. I happen to think them still comparatively strong and like their chances to run up the score in this total mismatch of a border battle. The two neighbors have met rather often in the syndicate pages. That seven-goal thriller in 2014 more than made up for those drab 0-0 draws 2016 and and 2006.
Your friendly bookie had some catching up to in terms of Froggy scouting. They obviously got a great deal of attention--not to mention respect--after the 1-0 bossing of my country in the opening fixture. The 1-1 draw against Hungary in Budapest featured some experimental tactics from Didier Deschamps. A perpetually roving and shifting Antonie Griezmann consistently interrupted the flow of the match. Les Bleus couldn't really settle into any sort of rhythm.
The third match, against Portugal, might as well be labelled a train wreck. All the VAR stoppages precluded either team from finding a rhythm. On top of that, the subbing off of Lucas Hernandez on a yellow--followed shortly by the injury to replacement Lucas Digne--meant that Adrien Rabiot had to play as the left fullback. The 4-4-2 stood no chance of keeping its shape thereafter. It was already pretty disjointed from the start, with Kylian Mbappé and Corentin Tolisso working a split stagger.
Deschamps may not have his house in order quite yet, but in a very real sense he's been gifted with another match to set things straight. Tactical failures on behalf of Swiss trainer Vladimir Petkovic have received full scrutiny in the bookie's notebook. The totally misguided 5-3-2 switch on Day Two and the wholly ridiculous 4-3-1-2 on Day Six both earned separate rants. I very much liked the intrepid 3-4-3 on Day Ten. It's still nowhere near good enough to counter the surfeit of talent the French possess.
The bookie's lineup projection takes some of the French players sitting on yellows into account. The Euro rules on accumulation remain especially harsh. They won't reset until the semi-finals. Deschamps' team picked up four in the last group-stage match. I don't think the French trainer has the luxury of sitting Hernandez or Griezmann. I do think he has little to lose by getting Kimpembe and Pavard out of the XI and giving his second string keeper a run-out.
This moves Kanté back into the sweeper position for a bit of extra safety. The Tolisso-Mbappé split-stagger may be a bit too dangerous at first. I nevertheless wouldn't be at all surprised to see it manifest early. Petkovic has plenty of yellow accumulator concerns of his own, but has little choice but to go all-in against the heavy favorites.
We'll witness caution from both sides here. Hopefully we won't get another 0-0 draw. I'll tip Mbappé to eventually break the stalemate with something special. After that, it should be smooth sailing for the World Champions.
Projected Lineups:
“Les Bleaus” (5-1-3-1)
“La Nati” (3-4-3)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—2 to 1
Thomas Lemar start—2 to 1
Mbappé brace—Straight Up
Shaqiri brace—Straight Up
Embolo brace—3 to 1
THE LINE: France +1 Goal
Tuesday, June 29th
England vs. Deutschland
vs. 
Two teams that we can rightly say are struggling square hardly constitutes the best offering of the round. Everyone nevertheless can't resist labelling it a banging blockbuster. Standing in the way of English football's long awaited revival, we have and old nemesis. The true European heavyweight.
To all those -Ms who skim through these lines sections, we must allow mother England's third-highest all-time scorer and arguably most famous ever broadcaster's quote to stand on its own:
"Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end of the day, the Germans win."
--Gary Lineker
Next to Bill Shankly's (misquote) about football being more important than life, it may be the most legendary proverb the game has ever known. Even those who know noting about football are familiar with it. Pandemonium shall reign on the Isle if the Germans win yet again this time. It'll be even worse than Steven Gerrard's 2010 disallowed goal.
But it won't happen. Trust me my Limey fans. Our time has long since been over. Saturday's "Zitternspiel" counted as the last gasp of a footballing program that lost its way some time two years ago. When our Bundestrainer most hubristically proclaimed it his right to steer our rebuild, an inappropriate line was drawn with respect to three important players. Two of them are now back, "two/too little, two/too late."
Bookie never really regained his faith in the Vaterland. Some said that the critique of the first match rang excessively harsh. Then there were those who thought praise for the second fixture sounded unconsciously muted. Now everyone knows full well what I've been talking about. We're done. We're toast. Fell free to spread marmalade and marmite all over us with your afternoon cup of tea....you bastards.
Plenty of England analysis available in the dailies. I've got your tepid debut in Day Three. The Scottish draw, which wasn't nearly as catastrophic as it felt to you, is available on Day Eight. The basic blueprint of the system that outclasses us in most every one-vs-one matchup is drawn up on Day Twelve.
See you guys at Wembley in your snazzy new blue/purplish kits. I also think we'll see you in a back-three not unlike that one from the 2018 WM. In setting this line, I had to get inside Löw's head to build the XI. I personally like the one I built in the most recent review better. There will likely be some bitching about this when it comes time to write the daily.
Projected Lineups:
“The Three Lions” (3-1-4-2)
“Die Nationalmannschaft” (3-4-3)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—3 goals
120 Minutes—2 to 1
Penalty Shootout—3 to 1
Kane goal—Straight Up
Grealish start—2 to 1
Gündogan start—2 to 1
Havertz start—2 to 1
THE LINE: England +1 Goal
Sweden vs. Ukraine
vs. 
Something of a less exciting offering closes out our first elimination round. The Swedes most assuredly thawed out much sooner than the bookie expected. That doesn't mean that they can't be expected to sleepwalk their way through this one. Lifelong international tournament fanatics regard the Nordic Blaugults with some historical interest. They are literally the last country that sticks to its own unique brand of football.
Once upon a time, the Germans, Italians, Dutch, English, and Soviet Block countries all had a distinct style used in international play. In the modern era, FAs don't ordinarily require coaches to run a specific program. Leaving out the fiercely contested debate as to whether Spain still play an intentional tiki-taka variant, the Swedes remain the only "classic style" country left. The "ice-block" 4-4-2. It's melts slowly over the course of a competition.
Things look pretty easy for the bookie's "sleeper pick" to top the Group of Life and punch through to the quarterfinals. Janne Andersson's men face a Ukrainian side that literally limped into this phase as the only third place team to qualify on three points. Andersson follows the bookie's advice, augmenting his previously documented personnel deployment with speedsters Sebastian Larsson and Robin Quaison.
Andiry Shevchenko, on the other hand, loses his grip. Against Austria in the final group stage match, the Ukrainian gaffer tried to get way too cutesy with his standard 5-4-1. A peculiar looking 5-1-2-3 brought out the worst in talents like Aleksandr Zinchenko and Ruslan Malinovskyi. It's unclear why he simply didn't keep them axially paired. They looked lost pulled apart.
I think Andersson will keep the youths, replacing only the yellow-cautioned Danielson in his starting XI. The more exciting players won't operate under the same free flowing directives in this one, though. Old man Olof wants a boring win in this one. No one pushes themselves. No one gets hurt. Shevchenko has little choice but to return to what (kinda, sorta) worked before and push everyone up.
The Ukrainian constellation should succeed in clogging the midfield up a bit during this slow affair. The most exiting part of this match might be which team gets to wear its traditional yellow.
Projected Lineups:
“The Nordic Blaugults” (4-4-2)
Prop Bets (as always, feel free to offer your own)
Over/Under—2 goals
120 Minutes—Straight Up
Penalty Shootout—2 to 1
Danielson start—Straight Up
Marcus Berg start—Straight Up
THE LINE: Sweden +1 Goal
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS
