Tuesday, June 1, 2021

EM 2020--Group C Preview

Introduction—“The Hall of Mirrors”

(Holland, Austria, Ukraine, N. Macedonia)

    


Welcome to our first "group of life" candidate. 


When first conceived, this group aimed to take you on a centralized European journey from the canals of Holland deep into the dense fog of Transylvania. Amsterdam and Bucharest enjoy hosting privileges. 

While we're still headed down the Danube all the way to its terminus, the Romanians royally messed up in qualifying. They missed three solid chances to claim their reserved space. It gives the bookie absolutely no pleasure to report that the Transylvanians shall only join us as spectators. 

The group nevertheless maintains a haunting fell to it. The Dutch return after a succession of nightmares kept them out of the last two major internationals. A somewhat shaky Holland find themselves stalked by a scary looking Austrian side, a formidable enough Ukrainian pursuant, and even a ravenous debutante seeking to turn the whole group on its head. 

In terms of this sportsbook's projection, we'll tip it to shake out as expected. That's not to suggest that there wasn't much back-and-forth. Franco Foda's Austrians could easily win all three matches. All Andiry Shevchenko's team needs to do is declare the past year a wash and start over. That's always possible in tournament football. 

Even the North Macedonians have an eerie potential to them. Germans learned that after they beat us in March. Be advised that this group remains knife-edge close. Lots of reflection chasing you down this "Hall of Mirrors". As Kraftwerk so aptly reminds us, any picture can get quickly distorted. 


I know, I know. It's a creepy little diddy. It still exemplifies how wonderfully deep the German groundbreakers were. Leave it to the artists who shunned publicity in favor of honing their craft to write a ghoulish song about the horrors of narcissism and self-promotion.

Your friendly bookie opted not to choose the English-language version, "Hall of Mirrors", for fear of sending anyone descending into madness. 

The Netherlands—“Clockwork Oranje”

It's been far, far too long since we've welcomed the "Oranje" in these pages. Seven years to be precise. The "Totaalvoetball" country has gone through an identity crisis of sorts; easily its darkest years since the early 2000s. 


The Dutch missed out on qualifying for the last two major internationals. To the bookie's knowledge, we didn't even get a decent fan-produced documentary out of it this time. 


Signs of decline were apparent during the Bert van Marwijk debacle of Euro 2012. The KNVB managed to buck the trend in 2014 by bringing back Louis van Gaal to lead a side of determined veterans. After attaining the semis in two consecutive WMs, the proud footballing nation of Johan Cruyff then dropped off the face of the earth. 


The post-2014 downturn certainly wasn't unforeseeable. Given the age of integral actors at the time--Wesley Sneijder (30), Arjen Robben (30), Robin van Persie (30), Klaas Jan Huntelaar (30), Dirk Kuyt (33)--an awkward transition period seemed to be on the horizon. It still came as a shock when this man couldn't steer them in the 24-team 2016 Euros. 




 








One legend followed another. Guus Hiddink succeeded van Gaal for his own second stint at the helm of the national team. Losses to Iceland and the Czech Republic, along with an early 2015 draw with Turkey, compelled the KNVB to push the panic button and elevate Daley Blind's father to the head-coaching position. 


This move, to no one's surprise, failed to rescue the qualifying campaign. Holland finished fourth in a group they should have had little difficulty topping. Danny Blind's appointment never looked to a successful one, but the FA stuck with him until, once again, it looked far too late to save their qualifying hopes in the next tournament.


Enter yet another legend. 












Er....really? Again? Dick Advocaat got his third term in charge of the national team. This was all beginning to seem like a greatest hits record. One half expected them to bring back Leo Beenhakker next after our old familiar friend couldn't help them catch up in a tough 2018 qualifying group featuring Sweden and France. 


Instead, we got this guy:












Oh, for eff's sake. Are there really no more than a handful of coaches available in the low lands? Van Gaal remained in the running for his third stint, but the memorable supplier of the best German/English football-related gaffes mercifully stuck to his decision to retire. 


To his credit, Koeman did do quite well to lead the Dutch back. They reached the finals of the inaugural behind some great play from new captain Georginio Wijnaldum, emergent scorer Luuk de Jong, and defensive stalwarts Stefan de Vrij, Matthijs de Ligt, and Virgil van Dijk. 


Koeman would still be guiding this team had Bayern's demolition of Barça in last year's delayed UEFA Champions' League quarterfinals not meant that a better opportunity came a-knocking. New coach Frank de Boer likes to run a 4-3-3.


 Projecting the Dutch Lineup (4-3-3) 



The forward axes are easy enough to sort out. De Boer maintains a competent attack; not exactly something of the old "Brilliant Oranje" capacity, but serviceable enough. Don't expect this team to light the group up. Against more competitive nations, they rarely score more than one goal. Memphis Depay and Georginio Wijnaldum handle most of the tallying.


The fullback projections, not to mention de Boer's first choice of keeper, require more guesswork. Thirty-eight-year-old backstop Martin Stekelenburg is actually back on the team after Jasper Cillessen came down with COVID. One assumes he's here for moral support. I'll go with Tim Krul. Do know that goalkeeping problems continue to haunt this team just as they have for the past decade.

 

Virgil van Dijk's injury appears to be of little consequences. The two center-halves are strong enough to render his absence moot. On paper, this lineup should prove capable of besting the Ukraine in the opening fixture, putting a quick end to this group's tentative potential as a "group of life."


 The Talisman—Georginio Wijnaldum 


Liverpool certainly missed van Dijk this year. Fortunately, they could rely upon this man during their late push for the Champions' League places. A very stellar campaign saw him shoulder a lot of action. Fifty-one appearances across all competitions tells one something. A little visual evidence tells one more.



The Dutch captain is currently one of the hottest commodities in European football. It's fairly likely that Barça have snatched him up for the next campaign, though we're all still waiting for the official confirmation. 


The Rotterdam native has tallied four times since de Boer gave him the skipper's armband last Fall. His leadership style on the pitch is truly something to behold.

 

 Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy 


 Wout Weghorst, VfL Wolfsburg 


Your friendly bookie can scarcely believe this is happening! Expectations that Wolfsburg's target man would make the final were low. Ostensibly, his 25-goal campaign for Germany's green company team was simply too good to ignore.













Speaking of hot commodities in European football, one has no idea whether Wout will stick around with die "Autostädter" for next year's campaign. He'll fetch a pretty penny on the transfer market. It's probable that die Wölfe are reeling in Mark van Bommel for the precise purpose of keeping him. 


In spite of his proflic record in Germany's top footballing division, the this tower-of-power has only been capped four times for the national team. There've always been too many ahead of him. Bookie will place him fourth on the current depth chart.


We may not see him until de Boer needs extra height late in an extra time game in the knockouts.

 

 Nostalgia Corner 


 “The Swan Song” 


Spanish fans may wish to avert their eyes as we're headed back to the first group stage game of the 2014 WM. This was the one that ushered in the catastrophe dubbed by your friendly bookie as the "unexpected Spanish Inquisition." 


Yikes. What a finish!



It simply came to early to maintain the "goal-of the-tournament" status. James Rodriguez, Joel Campbell, and (eventually) Mario Götze had too much to contribute later. The Chileans almost scrubbed this goal from memory in the very next match on the very same day. 


This diving header nevertheless played an enormous role in setting the tone for the 2014 tournament. The 2010 WM and 2012 EM were colorful and pleasant affairs. When football returned to South America, however, the wonder-goals returned and we got off to a rollicking start


Austria—“Unsere Burschen”


Still waiting on this team's first win in the Syndicate pages. Yes, that's a sad fact for your friendly bookie to report. "Kleindeutschland" exited both the 2008 and 2016 competitions in the group phase. 


Neither Josef Hickersberger's nor Marcel Koller's incarnations were what one might describe as terrible. They just played that way. 


Ugh. Two goals in two major international tournaments. This country seems more burdened than mine when it comes to punching below their weight whenever the population succumbs to a collective sense-of-guilt phase. 


The 2008 team never even scored from open play in a competition they co-hosted. About the only memorable thing supplied by a side that did feature Christian Fuchs, Roland Linz, and a young/promising Martin Harnik was this:















Probably Michael Ballack's most meaningful goal in my personal favorite German tricot. The final group stage game at the Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Vienna saw the co-hosts effectively roll over and die. They were nowhere near up to the task, eluding a last-place finish only on goal differential. 


Frankly, it's quite difficult to conjure up memories of this country enjoying some sort of success. A mental journey back to the 2019 European U-21 Championship only produced this.














Oops. That was another really bad Austrian side. The youth ranks got completely pummeled in that tourney and they didn't even qualify for the most recent one. Yes, yes. The bookie can feel the ÖFB supporters among our ranks losing patience with this teasing.


I'll furnish you with something uplifting.


Sniff. I miss him already. You know I do. David Alaba gave more than his fair share to German football, answering every last call and challenge Bayern issued him. He truly is an all-rounder and I can't wait to see what roles Franco Foda has devised for him.

Relax. I like the team. Very much contrary to my historical intuitions, I'm prepared to project a second place finish.....again.


 Projecting the Austrian Lineup (5-2-3) 



Well, the Bundesliga-fanatic can build a deadly-looking XI. That doesn't necessarily mean that Foda prepared to do the the same. I happen to really dig how mine comes together. We pair the two Eintracht Frankfurt teammates. It's a no brainer given Stefan Ilsanker's late-season form and the sheer prowess of "General Hinti". 


Julian Baumgartlinger, who looks to be fit just in time, fulfills the same deep-field-anchor driver role he has with Leverkusen. Marcel Sabitzer hangs back to work an axis with the surging Xaver Schlager. Christoph Baumgartner and Michael Gregoritsch occupy lanes in which they've thrived for Hoffenheim and Augsburg, respectively. 


Sasa Kalajdzic is my target man. He's earned it. Marko Arnautovic had his time. It's the "Summer of Sasa". David Alaba plays at left fullback, where he can do an even better job of servicing Kalajdzic than Borna Sosa did in the Stuttgart split-stagger. 


It's perfect. Bookie damn well loves it. This represents what can be possible when one pays close attention to Bundesliga football. One could say that, finally, this team has a trainer who does just that. 


Ahem. I shall now attempt to telepathically channel my fellow Pfälzer. Pick this XI, Franco!


 The Talisman— David Alaba 


I like him at left-back. He prefers attacking midfield or even a straight flank assignment. During Euro 2016, he even played all the way up on the second axis straddling the ten-spot. 


Basically, in the event someone is too dense to sense the point coming, we behold a genuine X-factor who can serve anywhere except at lead striker and between the sticks. 


Awesome, awesome footballer.



La Liga fans are in for a real treat next year. Alaba did more than anyone else at Bayern, save Thomas Müller and Manuel Neuer, to save Bayern's 2019/20 campaign when Niklas Süle went down. One can understand his side of the story throughout the messy contract fight this year. 


As I already told you, I miss him already.

 

 Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy 


 Sasa Kalajdzic, VfB Stuttgart 


Not an easy choice here as the bookie projects a starting XI comprised exclusively of Bundesliga players. I also had to have an apologetic conversation with the "Hinti Army" T-shirt hanging in my closet. With all due deference to Martin Hinteregger, this is the guy everyone should prepare to meet.














At precisely two meters (6'7''), he's a Peter Crouch with muscles. You're really going to like this cat. A 16-goal-season in the Bundesliga and three tallies for country during the March international break. 


Foda must start him. This shouldn't even be a debate. This nation cannot abide another one-goal-tournament. Bring on the big bad Serb!


 Nostalgia Corner 


 “Battle of the Old Empire” 


True, it's slim pickings here as we're only looking at two goals in two tournament appearances, but who could forget that Euro 2016 game? One of the greatest historic rivalries.


Austria-Hungary returned....as a football match! The atmosphere was great. The tension was just right.



And, of course, Austria fell completely flat. Marel Koller's 4-4-1-1 held the tempo early before completely collapsing in on itself. Adam Szalai and Zoltan Stieber finally turned the screws.


Triple sigh. How about not disappointing us this time? A German pleads with you. I know we've had our past differences to say the least, but I'm tired of writing scathing reviews about this country.


The Ukraine—“The Shevchenkos”


Let's assign our own nickname to this team. They deserve better than a placid description of their colors and yet another absurdly ugly attempt at a modern looking crest. This poor country. When they're not having territory annexed from the East, they're being pressured for quid-pro-quos from the West. Ach. 


A special shout out to the bookie's Ukrainian mates. You guys deserve this tournament perhaps more than anyone else. I'm so very sorry. For those who don't know, the Ukraine had to be placed in a group immediately to obviate any chance that they might be drawn with Russia. 


We'll keep the politics light while emphasizing that this was such a farce. A country that's not even in Europe, and should rightly be banned from sporting competition altogether after the doping scandals, received hosting privileges while UKR gets shoved aside. 


Business as usual in the messy world of a continent that desperately just wants perpetual peace. It's not easy. It's also sure as hell not fair. How about some better news?














Damn, does Andriy Shevchenko look good in that suit! The footballing legend knows how to pick a tailor and a team. Ukraine's most prominent footballing ambassador led Ukraine to both an undefeated qualifying round and an unbeaten showing in the inaugural UEFA Nations League. 


I like this team's chances. Who could possibly frown upon a squad in such great form?
















Uh-oh. Yulia doesn't look too convinced. Something's amiss, and it probably relates to timing. Must it really be the case that we've more negative news to report about a country that has obviously suffered enough?


It's the timing. Had this tournament been held when initially scheduled, Shevchenko could have parlayed some of the momentum to a second-place finish. The Eastern Blagults, struggling with a debilitating number of COVID infections in their ranks, find themselves in a terrible run of form. 


The pandemic totally sunk them. They've won two of twelve fixtures since last Spring. They also just lost Yevhen Konoplyanka (21 national team goals) and Victor Kovalenko (the young spark plug) to injury. 


Drawing up the lineup gave your friendly bookie a damned serious headache. I had to call up "Dr. Ironfist"   and "Dr. Stahlhammer" in search of a prescription. 














Tell me some good news, brothers. I'd really hate to see this team "outta here like Wladimir"!


 Projecting the Ukrainian Lineup (5-4-1) 



It took some work, but we can build a back-three "shielded" by conservatively stationed wingbacks. There's a great deal of inherent risk involved on those top three axes, so I'm envisioning young Mykola Shaparenko as a "track-back" candidate should the team need to shell up further. 

Roman Yaremchuk alone up top seems the logical choice. At this stage of his career, Andriy Yarmolenko is far better suited to a deeper deployment. Where the goals will come from is something about which the bookie remains most uncertain. 

I could have really used Konoplyanka on this board. Kovalenko hasn't scored yet for country, but he could of served as one of the wingbacks. That huge gap ahead of the defenders screams for Anatoliy Tymoshchuk. Shevchenko should have brought this country's other legend in as an assistant. 

 The Talisman— Oleksandr Zinchenko 

Definitely a fun player to watch, the 24-year-old has been getting semi-regular action over on the Isle. Your friendly bookie isn't quite so certain that Pep has figured out the best role for him at ManCity yet. 

Shevchenko has a much clearer vision for the lad. He's pretty decent on the left wing, where he netted three times for country pre-pandemic.


Here's one potential source of the needed offensive impetus. Unfortunately, he didn't look so hot during last November's Nations League encounter with Germany. I'll chalk it up to the fact that he was playing hurt. 

Zinchenko did showcase some nice acceleration during the bookie's scout. When focused, he was also highly technical on the ball.


 Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy 


 Andriy Yarmolenko, (formerly Borussia Dortmund) 


No current Bundesliga players on this roster. We'll consequently dig up a blast from the past.  













Yarmolenko turned in one memorable campaign in the Bundesrepublik back in 2017/18. That fantastic curler against Tottenham in the Champions' League won't soon be forgotten. He chipped in three more in the league and two more in the cup for a total of six goals across all competitions. 


It was fun while it lasted. Nice to see him enjoying some success over in East London, where he's played for the last three seasons. One genuinely hopes that he can put together a good tourney here as he was probably Ukraine's biggest bust of the 2016 EM.


Neither Yarmolenko nor his team found the back of the net last time.


 Nostalgia Corner 


 “A Sommermärchen light” 


As much as I strive to keep the clips Euros-based, two teams in this group necessitate that we revisit the World Championships. The 2006 version of the Yellows truly were the best.  



Shevchenko & Co delivered that beautiful piece of poetic justice to the Swiss (who, with the help of some horrible officiating, previously cheated the South Koreans out of a rightful place in the knockouts) with that intense penalty-shootout victory in the round-of-16. Lovely. 


Oleg Blokhin's team were drawn into a very difficult qualifying group that year. They overcame adversity to clinch a berth at the tournament; their first ever World Cup appearance. Serious adversity in the group stages after Spain spanked them 4-0. 


Blokhin's men responded well, blanking the Saudis and Tunisians to book passage to the next phase. Lovely days these were.

 

North Macedonia—“The Lions” 


More debutants to discuss as we welcome the country that formerly went by the acronym F.Y.R.O.M. Incidentally, I welcome the opinion of anyone who wishes to aver that F.Y.R.O.M. should properly be classified as an initialism. 

Despite the fact that the letters form something pronounceable, I never actually heard anyone vocally refer to the nation as "F-eye-Rom". 


At any rate, here they are. Just like Finland in the last post, we're dealing with a team that has never qualified for a major international of any sort. Well done, Lions! Meanwhile, the Greeks--the offended party who gave us F.Y.R.O.M in the first place--haven't qualified for the Euros since 2012 and also missed out on the last World Cup. 


A warm reception is in order for the first team to qualify for Euro 2020 via the challenging playoff path. These were especially brutal single-legged battles hastily and belatedly made up this past October and November. The North Macedonians upset their former Yugoslav brethren Kosovo and knocked off the former SSR Georgia in a pair of winner take-all fixtures. 


Stateside readers may claim to know no North Macedonians. In actuality you do. Recognize this one? 



 









Vlatko Andonovski. The new head-coach of the the greatest female footballing team on the planet. Jill Ellis' successor is still undefeated through 18 fixtures. He's won both editions of the SheBelieves Cup and looks well poised to take Gold in this Summer's delayed Olympics. 


Yes, gentlemen. Your friendly bookie obstinately refuses to allow you to forget about women's football. I'll find any excuse to work it in. The magnificence of the beautiful game doesn't end when this competition does. You can be excused from the CONCACAF Gold Cup if you want, but don't miss the girls.


Got a tad sidetracked there. We'll return to this team.


Projecting the N. Macedonian Lineup (3-5-2) 



Very easy to project after watching the playoffs and (sob) watching this team upset my country in the most recent World Cup Qualifier. This is verifiably a very bold 3-5-2; a commendable constellation more than worthy of the 2-1 defeat of the Vaterland. Trainer Igor Angelovski goes for broke, and often wins. 


Now that the opponents in this group have had ample chance to study how this works, it's unlikely that we'll see more sensational upsets. A 3-5-2 pivot can be shredded by range-specialists who know how to get balls in behind the midfield. 


We'll tap them to finish bottom, adding as a point of emphasis that they've demolished expectations three times in the past seven months. Very much looking forward to seeing this back in action.


The Talisman—Goran Pandev 


A familiar face for Serie A fans. Five years at Inter, including the treble winning season in 2010. All those productive campaigns at Lazio Rom and Napoli. He's still scoring goals for Genoa at the age of 37! 



In club football, his positioning varies. For this young country, he always leads the charge. Pandev served as the hero in the final qualifying playoff, netting the game-winning goal in the 1-0 defeat of Georgia. 


What he presently lacks in terms of speed, he's more than made up for with the accumulated wisdom of 22 years of top flight football. 


One hundred and eighteen caps for country don't hurt either. A tip of the cap to this most esteemed elder statesman.

 

 Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy 


 Darko Churlinov, VfB Stuttgart 


Wish I had a little more to tell you about the young phenom. He's a Skopje native who moved to the Bundesrepublik at a very young age and caught on at the 1. FC Köln youth academy after stints in the East with Magdeburg and Rostock.  


Bundesliga watchers have been tracking him for some time. 














As someone who watched every last VfB Stuttgart match this season for a column on American head-coach Pellegrino Matarazzo's tactics, I have to concede that there wasn't much memorable in his 16 appearances. 


Matarazzo used him exclusively as a sub, even when injuries to his preferred wingers gifted him the perfect opportunity to test drive him with a start on the flanks. One guesses that the work on the training pitch isn't up to par just yet. 


He's young. Perhaps he'll be ready for prime-time somewhere down the road. 


Nostalgia Corner


“USWNT hype” 


I already mentioned the 2-1 defeat of Germany. Moreover, that's not technically eligible for this section either. Okay, very well. One could make the case that crossing over to an entirely different sport violates the spirit of it to. 


The fact remains that everyone should know who Vlatko Andonovski is and everyone should watch the girls later this Summer. 



You guys know full well that they don't disappoint. They've earned your time and deserve your attention. This pandemic wreaked havoc on women's football. There's been all sorts of deleterious financial effects for many clubs and it's uncertain whether the NWSL will recover. 

Just watch. Your friendly bookie has never steered you wrong in this regard. 

 

Vicey’s Fearless Group Prediction (2 to 1 Odds for Bookie)

 

  1) Netherlands  

  2) Austria

  3) Ukraine  

4) North Macedonia


Overall Championship Odds


  Netherlands (Straight Up)

  Austria (8 to 1)

  Ukraine (10 to 1)

North Macedonia (16 to 1)


Round of 16 Odds


  Netherlands (NO BETS)

  Austria  (Straight Up)

  Ukraine  (Straight Up)

North Macedonia  (3 to 1)


Quarterfinal Odds


  Netherlands  (NO BETS)

  Austria  (3 to 1)

  Ukraine  (4 to 1)

North Macedonia  (5 to 1)


Semifinal Odds


  Netherlands (Straight Up)

  Austria  (5 to 1)

  Ukraine  (7 to 1)

North Macedonia  (12 to 1)