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With warm preemptive congratulations to Kanzlerin Baerbock :)
Your friendly bookie wholeheartedly endorses a German velvet revolution. Let's go Europe!
Day 7: Recap
Bookie’s Stats—
Spread: 5-13
Straight up: 7-9-2
Riiiight. And the members cash in on the bookie's "upset alerts". So much for the two "little Germanys". Perhaps, despite what the bookie considered to be logically sound tactical arguments, the Swiss and Austrians were sentimental picks after all.
One could say the same about the Bundesrepublik's most esteemed northern neighbors, Denmark. There are always invariably sympathetic proclivities within us as the head talks itself into what the heart wants. My poor Rød-Hvide were completely overmatched.
As an illustration of how little those of us obsessed with the tactical cam know, why don't we introduce the man who carries this day? After a far too long seven-year-absence, the brilliant Oranje are back courtesy of the man with the undisputed coolest name in the tournament.
And, no, my cherished and esteemed American mates. It's pronounced [Dum-FREEZE]. The man isn't a side order you get with the McKroket. Nevertheless appreciate the sentiment, 111-M.
Returning to the point you may have assumed I'd forgotten about, what do us amateur tacticians really know? Apparently the shape-fiends who support the Dutch national team got it wrong.
The 5-3-2 that won the first match did pretty well. If my eyes didn't deceive, I think I saw a bloody 7-1-2 over large stretches of today's win over Austria. Frank de Boer evidently knows better than us how his players fit together. Hell with us.
Incidentally, how lucrative a business must it be to own a banner-flying plane service in Europe? Honestly. Set up shop in a football town and you're on the gravy train for life. Fans will fork over exorbitant amounts of cash for their "[insert manager] out" flight after every three-match-losing streak.
The guy who ran the one in North London never even had to change the letters. He got to tow the same "Wegner out" payload for a decade. Maybe he had to work a little harder on the Pochettino and Mourinho layout once he started getting more business over Spurs, but still. Easy money.
S.S.S. Tactical Breakdown
Oh, we've got a lot to get to tonight as your friendly bookie finds himself in a pissy mood over the Danish and Austrian losses. Before getting to that, we need to catch up with Shevchenko and our Ukrainian friends first as many are now claiming to have divine visions of a dark horse.
Lineup—Ukraine—PROJECTED (5-4-1) (6/1/2020)
Never really saw much other than a defensive arrangement in this team. I saw no real sleeper potential in either them or the Turks during the early days of researching and writing the preview sections. What's weird about the UKR is that they seem to be performing better in an even more defensive arrangement than I pictured them in.
Lineup—Ukraine—Match One (4-5-1) (6/13/2021)
Lineup—Ukraine—Match Two (5-4-1) (6/17/2021)
In this case, the difference between a 4-5-1 and a 5-4-1 is that Stepanenko, taking the place of Sydorchuk, hangs tighter to the defensive line and everyone ahead of him scoots in. This produced about as little as one might expect for the first half hour. Yaremchuk and Yarmolenko managed to score in quick succession shortly thereafter mostly because the North Macedonian back three got bent out of shape rather easily.
This happened several times in the second half too amidst all the drama of the two saved penalties, two disallowed goals, and admirable late fight from the now officially eliminated tournament debutantes. I guess the lesson here is that the Ukrainians really aren't all that great of a team and certainly shouldn't be considered a Cinderella candidate.
Much love for the side that stands a good chance of punching through to a knockout round for the first time in 15 years. We're all happy to see that, just as we liked the story of F.Y.R.O.M. coming to play under their now officially sanctioned name and flag. As I remarked yesterday, fuck Marko Arnautovic and his taunt again Macedonia's Ezgjan Alioski. I'm very happy he scored in this one.
That notwithstanding, the Ukraine beat a pretty disorganized rabble today. That's why they're scoring while simultaneously retreating. Not seeing a great deal in UKR beyond Yaremchuk and Yarmolenko. Zinchenko has been decent, but nothing spectacular. A bit of a shame that this tourney didn't take place when scheduled. They looked much better back in 2020.
Onwards to the football match at the Parken in Copenhagen today. Some people questioned the symbolism that threatened to overshadow the football, but it was really the prerogative of the Danish fans to honor their national team player in any way that they saw fit. Not for us to criticize. It's their show.
To the football that took place on the pitch.
Lineup—Denmark—Match Two (3-4-3) (6/17/2021)
What a response this was from Danish trainer Kasper Hjulmand! Big changes from the 4-3-3 draw up which can be found in the Day Two recap. This was precisely what the team needed; a slick, high octane 3-4-3 designed to get an early goal. Boy, did we ever get one from one of Germany's most popular players.
First off, for those wondering, I always wanted to draw a board featuring the name Leipzig's Yussuf Poulsen sometimes wears for his national team. "Yurary" is his middle name; the name of his late Tanzanian father. The man with too many connections to your friendly bookie's heart wore it today and scored in the 2nd minute.
It worked ever so well. Had an absolute ball watching this make a mockery out of Roberto Martinez's 3-4-2-1. The Belgian manager used the exact same formation and spatial arrangements as on Day Two, obviously with Thomas Meunier and Denayer replacing the injured Boyata and Castagne. The Danes ran roughshod over it.
Such a delight for the bookie. I got to see former Bundesliga mainstay Jannick Vestergaard again in addition to getting a splendid introduction to Mikkel Damsgaard. This was also the first time I got to see what Jaokim Maehle is really capable of. Poulsen, in the kit he only pulls out for special occasions, truly shined as the center-forward.
Sadly, Martinez decided he had seen just about enough at the half and began to bring in the big guns. Kevin de Bruyne came on for Dries Mertens, buttressing Lukaku on the right hand side. Within ten minutes Lukaku was free to do all the hard set-up work and de Bruyne had an assist on Thorgan Hazard's equalizer.
Then it got really bad.
Lineup—Belgium—60th minute (3-4-1-2)
Oh shit. This is what the Belgian behemoth is supposed to look like. The Hazard brothers on the left. Axel Witsel in midfield. There's a latent triple headed monster up top. Even looking at this in 2-D gives me shivers. One can almost see the ball getting up the field in less than five seconds.
Naturally, we're always simplifying a bit with these illustrations. The blog isn't meant to delve too deep into tactics. You can read your friendly bookie's work during the season for that. Suffice to say that Martinez pulled off something a bit more intricate here.
De Bruyne seemed, to my eyes to really be working on getting Kjaer pulled off his pivot perch. Hjulmand's 3-4-3 was coming unglued. The response would be crucial. After two double substitutions and a De Bruyne goal to put Belgium up 2-1, I think I saw something like this take shape on the tactical cam.
Lineup—Denmark—73rd minute (4-3-1-2)
I don't know. I just don't know. Maybe the idea was to get Kjaer back behind an additional defender where he could more comfortably engage in damage control. Jensen, Cornelius, and Jens Stryger Larsen freshened up the attack, but didn't produce enough. They were, fitting of their age, all a mite slow and all wished to work as targets.
Perhaps Dolberg, Wind, and (an earlier introduced Robert Skov Olsen) might have done better. In any event, Hjulmand went with the veteran subs. The three players he introduced all had much more experience than the ones I listed. A veteran who remained on the pitch for the full 90 hit the bar just three minutes from time.
That was certainly a tournament defining moment in the 87th. It may have been the group favorites' last chance at advancing after the tragedy derailed their competition. We might be done here already. All Finland have to do is draw the Belgian B team on Monday and it won't matter what the Peninsulars do in their final match yikes.
Regarding the final match of the day, the noted 7-1-2 of Frank de Boer is basically just a variant of the 5-3-2 we covered on Day Three. Here's Franco Foda's failed constellation.
Lineup—Austria—Match Two (5-2-3) (6/17/2021)
Tsk. Tsk. A mirror of de Boer with no lessons learned. As the bookie has already noted several times, the deserved Arnautovic suspension didn't help. Unless I'm mistaken, however, he actually had Sabitzer up there working with Augsburg's Michael Greogritsch in a wholly unmeaning attacking tandem that just didn't jive.
Not smart. Baumgartner and Sabitzer were too close to find the right finishes. Bloat on the three back axes, predictably, let the Dutch tire them out with quick passing. Frenkie de Jong and Marten de Room had a field day. Alaba, contrary to what was supposed to be gleaned from the first encounter, had far too much to do.
That's how we got this.
Er....that's one way to stop the tournament's most lively wingback. It didn't look too pretty at full speed either. Horrible match from Alaba after he conceded the early penalty. This might be why Bayern didn't like him pushing up to high.
Foda eventually realized the error of his ways and fell back to a 3-4-2-1 with Sabitzer left and Baumgartner right behind Gregoritsch at the half. Straight like-for-like substitutions down the stretch produced nothing as everyone was out of gas.
If "Kleindeutschland" are going to make it through, Foda has to try something different.
“Riffs of the Day”—Day Seven
Reader: What's with these ESPN commercials. The same ones every damn time. Did they really only find five takers for slots during the fucking Euros?
Vicey: I'm with you, 5-M. A more important question, how does Taco Bell get away with running a commercial that begins "These aren't your normal nachos..." in this day and age?
Seriously. There can't possibly be any remaining people on this planet left to be fooled. Five decades of this.
This isn't your "normal taco." No sir!
We've flipped the script before setting fire to it Are you ready? We took the same shitty ingredients....and....get this....re-arranged them slightly!
Abra-motherfucking-cadabra!
Reader: We finally get a full stadium in Western Europe! All it took was a national tragedy!
Vicey: 17-M takes us back to some of the dark humor days of the syndicate. I feel like leaving it in.
We were all badly shaken by what we saw last Saturday. Your friendly bookie had to turn the television off and go for a long and somber walk. Returning to the keys, I found that I couldn't type because my hands were trembling. Focusing on the final match of the day proved near impossible.
Day Three contained plenty of Eriksen tributes. Day Two led with the story. I happened to remark then, and I believe it bears repeating, that the medical team that saved his life are the real heroes.
That should be the truly humbling part of an experience like this, particularly as we emerge pandemic year. There are those our species who do things like study medicine....then there are those of us who are, frankly, a pretty useless lot.
When Eriksen collapsed, he didn't need a football satirist or a someone trying to sell him a taco. What the hell are most of us doing with our lives?
Reader: How the fuck are you going to have an Euro skin of Marco Reus and have a fake kit for him? Fortnite is fucking PES!
Vicey: Bwhaha. Thanks, to 128-M for showing that football satirists still have something to offer. I know doctors who play Fortnite in their downtime.
Vicey: Love this cheap knock-off version of the German kit. Can't use the straight black lines? Just look at the 2014 tricot, Madison. Do something with that.
By the way, Marco. You had the right idea staying away from us this year. Enjoy your well-earned time off.
Reader: I think at $300 a ticket, me and the USWNT good.
Vicey: Got a bit snippy with 86-M last night when he didn't quite get the spirit of the bookie's banter over some football related texts. Guess he wanted an argument. He always wants an Here's one:
$300 a ticket? What? Hold up. As a huge proponent of women's football, I find that completely preposterous! For an exhibition match? If it were the the FWM of SheBelieves I'd understand.
I want a selfie with Rose Lavelle for that price!
Okay. Maybe $400. $550 tops. $800 if you throw in Kelley O'Hara.
Lavelle, O'Hara, Lloyd, Becky Sauerbrunn, Crystal Dunn, Christian Press, Julie Ertz, and Sam Mewis for $2,500.
Alright. Fine. I know I'm never getting near these footballers I admire so. I least I know who April Heinrichs and Michelle Akers-Stahl are.
Your friendly bookie has been watching women's football since first-prize at the women's Euros was a frilly female tea-set for girls on the winning team.
What I lack in financial support I make up for in...well...whatever this is that I've been doing with my life for the past thirty years.
It's not trained medical assistance, but it's something.
DAY EIGHT--PREVIEW
Sweden vs. Slovakia
vs.
Should be one worth setting the alarm for. No more "upset alerts" to get through. Line holds.
THE LINE: Sweden +2 Goals
Croatia vs. Czech Republic
vs.
THE LINE: Croatia +1 Goal (rolling down soft from Croatia +2)
England vs. Scotland
vs.
THE LINE: Pick em' (holding)
GENTLEMEN, ENTER YOUR WAGERS