Introduction—“Radioactivity”
Our fourth group could be gently be described as being "on fire".
This one scorches and burns with glowing hot football brilliant football brilliance, to the point where one has to reach for another metaphor.
Essentially everything one could ever want comes contained therein. Over the course of six fixtures scheduled to be played in Glasgow and London, we get the great historic rivalry (England-Scotland), the Eastern European Classic (Croatia-Czech Republic) and, to kick it all off, a rematch of the 2018 World Cup semi-final between the English and Croats.
One would describe this as a "group of life" in the same way that one would describe Robert Stone's 2013 documentary "Pandora's Promise" as "popcorn flick." No one's getting through this one easily. More questions than answers lie ahead. It's a group that undoubtably will feature some serious surprises of the scorched earth variety.
The sizable enough talent gap between the top two and bottom two could still ostensibly allow these teams to finish in order of ranking. The Scots, back after a 23-year-long hiatus from tournament play, will have something to say about that. So too will the Czechs, desperate to salvage some pride after years of decline. People claiming they knew what would happen here after the fact here are lying through their teeth.
With that in mind, we'll turn it over to Kraftwerk again gentlemen. They retrofitted lyrics for the 1975 hit "Radioactivity" to include Harrisburg, Chernobyl, and Fukashima for one of their main protest songs. Hindsight always remains 20/20 of course. The melody was much more pleasant before all of the carnage.
Live from the Tate Modern in London!
For the record, the bookie really liked "Pandora's Promise". I thought it a highly thought provoking iconoclastic look at the nuclear power debate. This German remains something of an iconoclast himself in that I never considered laying down on the Bundesbahn's train tracks to try and stop the waste transports.
Not my side of the issue....but damn do I love this song.
Even for those of us who have read Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanksi's "Soccernomics" twelve times (not to mention cited it a further twelve hundred over the years), we can't resist proclaiming that this shall be the year.
It's too irresistible. One year most definitely shall be "the year". Everyone wants to be the one who calls it first, like those who blast onto twitter with a juicy rumor that has only a spurious basis.
Football-fanatics remain, obviously with a few exceptions, absolute Anglophiles. How can we not be? The Isle serves as the football's Mecca. All who worship the beautiful game must make multiple pilgrimages during their lifetime.
Football calls us home. We are at home in the great cathedrals of London, and I don't mean Westminster. Loftus Road. Craven Cottage. The Den. The Valley. Brisbane Road. Plough Lane. Gander Green Lane. The Emirates. Stamford Bridge. The old White Hart Lane, Boleyn Ground, and Griffin Park.
Hell, it's even spiritual blowing bubbles at the somewhat ugly Olympic or figuring out what the hell to do in South London after an afternoon at Sellhurst. Tickets not be on public sale doesn't stop us pilgrims. We're more aptly described as holy footballing crusaders, just like these guys.
There may some good news in store for these zealous knights this year as football is coming home once again. Wembley hosts the final. Provided the Lions can get out of this group on top, the bracket works in their favor. A Swedish or Polish side in the round-of-16 could be beatable.
France or Portugal in the quarters counts as a challenge, but not necessarily an insurmountable one. Then it's an overextended Belgium or Italy at home in football's greatest temple for the semis and a weaker team in the Final.
One can easily talk oneself into it. This writer did some 18 months ago in a piece written for a separate website. Perhaps had the tournament been held as scheduled, everything would have fallen into place.
First place in the group remains attainable, especially if Southgate & Co exact immediate revenge on the Croats to set the tone early. Once out of the group, there lies a promising path.
No need to worry about penalty shootouts in this case. The English FA has learned to train for them just as they've learned to dress their managers.
Seriously. What the hell is up with this shite? There's a dress-code for FA trainers? Admittedly, I'd like to see Jogi Löw doing something other than showcasing wrinkled arms in a weathered T-Shirt these days, but I think the country should allow their coaches to dress themselves.
Anything other than a track suit should suffice.
Okay, okay. That concludes the fashion commentary. Over to personnel.
Projecting the English Lineup (4-3-3)
So many damned right-backs on this roster. That had to be the the first thing on everyone's mind when Gareth released the roster on Final Cutdown Day. We would have had four of them had Trent Alexander-Arnold not withdrawn injured.
What do we do with all these right fullbacks? I'm thinking a sweeper-centric 4-3-3. Kieran Trippier is clearly meant to work as an advanced winger. Southgate also wants to preserve the spirit of the 3-1-4-2 that served him so well last tournament until a weak midfield sunk him in the semis.
In this hypothetical, Jordan Henderson and Declan Rice take turns playing the libero in a more protective setup. Note that the wingers are just a wild guess. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford, or even Jack Grealish up there.
A 4-2-4 with Rice and Henderson as double sixes would be the bookie's next best guess. That conjecture would likely see Kyle Walker move over to left back with Reece James as his horizontal partner
The Talisman—Harry Kane
A pretty obvious choice. Prince Harry comes off another solid 33-goal campaign. One can't envision any sort of attack built without him. In point of fact, everything should be built around him.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy
Jude Bellingham, Borussia Dortmund
Jadon Sancho really rediscovered his stride in the latter stages of the most recent Bundesliga campaign. The 21-year-old phenom still showed his age with more than his fair share of over-touch tricks and mental errors.
Another young BVB Englishman makes some mistakes befitting his age, but still regularly shocks the hell out of you by playing intuitively mature at the age of just 17.
Good lord is he one to keep an eye on. Watching tons of Dortmund football this year, your friendly bookie couldn't take his eyes of him. Bellingham constitutes a true prodigy.
The hackneyed term "box-to-box player" is often overused or even misapplied. This kid really roves all over the field. If Southgate is brave enough to start him, check him out on the overhead tactical cam.
Personally, I'd start him, give him his own axis, and bestow upon him full creative license. Age is totally arbitrary in this case.
Nostalgia Corner
“Rooney Arrives”
Euro 2004 was not unlike the 1998 WM in that the footballing world's hottest young teenage commodity belonged to England. In both tournaments, one could hardly wait to see what Michael Owen and Wayne Rooney delivered.
Neither of them disappointed in their respective debut tournaments. Rooney's 2004 EM made for quite the sort. Ach. Had ill-timed injures not derailed these guys in subsequent tournaments, there most certainly would be more stars on that crest.
There was also Rooney's group stage ban in 2012, followed by those 2014 and 2016 disasters. Ah shit. Always a litany of "what ifs" when in comes to St. George.
By the way, Rooney and Owen were 18-years-of-age when they did their marvelous bursts onto the international scene. The lad your friendly bookie expends so much space on above is, as a friendly reminder, only 17.
I suppose it bears repeating: Jude Bellingham would be an excellent choice for the starting XI. I sincerely hope Southgate has the balls to do it. C'mon, Southy. Give us all a treat!
We might get to see it, especially after the Bundesliga professional really impressed in the latest pre-tournament friendly. Nineteen-year-old Bukayo Sako gave his trainer something to think about too.
All of that being said, there's probably too much youth already in the lineup in the form of Foden, Rice, and Mount. Blast. Just not enough room.
Croatia—“Blazing Vatrenti”
The flare-throwing incidents during Euro 2012 pissed me off something fierce. Fan behavior in the stands during the 2006 WM, the one my country so graciously hosted, planted the seeds of hatred that would later sprout into full blown condemnation.
The 2018 tournament went some way toward amaloriating this animosity. Watching Luca Modric captain the team through three straight extra-time knockout fixtures was simply fantastic football. Watching Dejan Lovren's son name the team on Youtube softened the heart.
A Summer international that began with pejoratively condescending references to "angry Croat dude":
Ended with fawning admiration for the class shown by a gusty, gritty, and determined side that brought their kids with them to Moscow:
Everyone remember this? Absolutely precious. After Zlatko Dalic's men won their third consecutive game in extra time, there was easily the most adorable pitch invasion in the history of football. The little Adriatic nation that could turned the field over to the little ones.
I guess we're alright, Croats. We'll have to find a way to live with one another as I happen to think the roster has what it takes to make a deep run in this tournament. Ivan Rakitic's retirement constitutes the only real loss and all of the veterans remain in good form.
We're cool....for now. Just don't do this.
Exercise some restraint. While we're at it, none of this please:
They're pyrotechnically obsessed. COVID looks to spare us from any of these shenanigans. Stadiums won't be at full capacity and there will be very traveling fans. Thank heavens we can focus on the team, which is actually a good one.
Projecting the Croatian Lineup (4-3-3)
The big news here is that former Bundesliga regular Mario Mandzukic has retired from international football. Whereas Rakitic hanging up his boots has some impact on this team, the bookie isn't concerned at all about replacing the legendary striker.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim's Andrej Kramaric is the pick to succeed Mandzukic and one of German football's top club players should do just fine. It's a simple slot in for a team that's aging a tad, but still remains damn strong.
Moreover, they're not that old; at least not in the context of modern football conditioning. Perisic, Vida, and Lovren are just barely over 30 and Modric, at 35, shows no signs of slowing down.
The Talisman—Andrej Kramaric
It could very well be Modric. The 2018 Ballon d'or winner looks healthy and fit enough to guide and lead this team. The bookie nevertheless believes that this shall be the Summer of the Sinsheimer. Many more shall know his name before we're through.
The 29-year-old comes of a 20-goal league campaign. He tallied 25 times across all competitions; remarkable when one takes into account that he missed significant action with injury and a bout with corona.
Unlike Mandzukic, he's a pacey and creative striker who turns them in as something other than a target. A successful tournament should land him a big transfer to a club outside Dietmar Hopp's sleepy Baden-Württemberg project.
Exciting times ahead.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy
Josip Brekalo, VfL Wolfsburg
Having discussed one excellent Bundesliga talent above, the bookie wishes to quickly mention another before getting to Brekalo. The German national team actually naturalized 23-year-old Borna Sosa of VfB Stuttgart just this past month.
Sosa is an incredible service winger whom I've written a lot about whilst covering the VfB this here. He would have been the Nationalmannschaft's ideal solution at left-back. Unfortunately, we didn't get him in a DFB uniform fast enough to conform to the UEFA nationality regulations.
Damn. Oh well. We'll move on to this kid.
A very fun lad to watch, I'm thinking the 22-year-old will get the nod on the left while Perisic moves over to the right. His late season form has been simply too good to ignore. Five goals in the last fixtures, including a hat trick against Union Berlin.
Should Dalic use Brekalo and Perisic as the attack buttresses behind Kramaric, it's possible to view this incarnation of a team something of an upgrade from the one we we watched three years ago. They could be even better.
Nostalgia Corner
“Mandzukic's reserve fuel”
As a parting tribute to a striker German football fans widely admire, we'll tap Mandzukic's extra-time goal against England in the 2018 semis as the moment to re-live. Perhaps not a happy memory for Anglophiles, but old "Marvelous Mario" certainly deserves it.
This wouldn't be the final goal Mandzukic scored in his country's colors. He would go on to score to in the Final against the French. One of them happened to be directed into his own net. He atoned for it with a sharp effort that counted for his side.
Here's hoping a Bundesliga side snatches the 35-year-old up as "joker sub" this season, just like Dortmund should have done last year.
Czech Republic—“The Czech Mates”
Been quite a long time since we've seen this team succeed. No new class rose to take the place of the former legends. As a result they've missed the last three World Cups. Though we always welcome them in the Euros, the last three tourneys proved eyesores.
The 2008 squad woke up far too late. The frustratingly inconsistent EM 2012 side lost every match they should have won and before bowing out with a whimper against Portugal in the quarters. Then there was that godawful 2016 version that gave the Croats a good fight, yet were hardly watchable in two shutout losses in the group.
Expectations remain pretty low this time. As usual, everyone appears pretty down on this team. Most predict another swift group stage exit, particularly after an UEFA ban on Ondrej Kudela for violation of the confederation's racist abuse protocols deprived them of their version of Per Mertesacker.
The bookie can build a decent lineup even without Kudela. Some inspiration for the projection was drawn from a strong qualifying round, during which they actually bested England in October 2019. The Scots got the better of them one year later. They then gave the Germans a good fight in a friendly and rattled off a four-game unbeaten streak before dropping a late squeaker against the Welsh in March.
Having had a chance to give the team a good scout, I think a third-place finish seems a decent tip. Manager Jaroslav Silhavy clearly has a solid understanding the neccessary defensive-minded tactics to keep this team competitive in all three fixtures.
Since we're still dealing with a team likely to be soon forgotten, we might as well indulge in some more prominent memories.
Man do I ever miss Herr Koller. The big, bad, bald destroyer. He knew how to put that intimidating noggin on the ball when it counted in the big tournaments. The man who carried them in 2004, got them rolling in 2006, and--had his team not completely let him down--would have seen them through in 2008.
That was some serious fun. Hit me with another Czech from the glory days, preferably another Dortmund alum. We need some blasts from the past before covering the present.
Hell, yeah. American fans don't want to remember him. I do. Greetings, Herr Rosicky. A creative and inventive playmaker from his first tournament appearance in 2000 to the sadly unceremonious bow-out in 2016. German fans adored his artistry on the pitch. Such a shame about the 2008 and 2012 injuries.
One more. We have time for one more. Since we're in England's group, the bookie is more than content to put the kettle on and sample a cuppa before getting to the projected XI. Some English-style procrastination is on order.
Projecting the Czech Lineup (4-2-2-2)
It's built to be boring. Silhavy positions his sixes to work a somewhat loose diamond box. That's at least how my eyes interpret it. It must be mundane. Tediously clogging the midfield is the team's only hope. That's how they'll hang on and potentially nick a late win in the group.
There might be some hope for more exciting football. Antonin Barak's use as a short striker gives Patrik Schick a quick centralized service lane. Vladimir Darida out on a suppressed flank axis may produce quality lateral play.
A diamond box can also trigger quick counters if the players step up in unison. That's probably asking a bit much as the four players in the square all play for different club teams.
The Talisman—Vladimir Darida
Late in the 2019/20 campaign, the "lungs" Hertha BSC broke the Bundesliga's distance-covered record twice during two spellbinding performances in the final nine fixtures.
Though significantly less effective this year, he came on strong late for Pal Dardai's relegation-threatened squad and scored on the season's final matchday.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy
Patrik Schick, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Since Darida occupies the talisman role, we'll talk about Schick in this segment. The lead striker Leverkusen bought to replace attackers Kevin Volland and Kai Havertz has been, by some standards, a bit of a flop.
Although he tallied a respectable 13 times across all competitions, nine league goals and a deep form dip late in the season left him overshadowed by Lucas Alario, the B04 winger duo, and young phenom Florian Wirtz.
On the other hand, one could fairly state the only real "flop" was Leverkusen itself. Germany's Red Company team fizzled out pretty badly as soon as the calendar year turned. This culminated in the sacking of coach Peter Bosz and a schizo finish no German fan could bring themselves to summon interested for.
We still have a solid technical striker here. Schick did score some super slick goals earlier on in the season. He's no slouch when it comes to tricks and techniques. Recent form excepted, he can furnish a little magic when confident.
Nostalgia Corner—“Iberian Euphoria”
As anyone reading the main section could have easily predicted, we have to reach back to 2004 to find a suitable slice of Czech glory. All the way back to the second syndicate chapter. Greece's unexpected triumph on the Iberian peninsula.
Scotland—“The Tartan Terriers”
They're finally here. Your friendly bookie has waited nineteen long years to compose a tournament write-up for the Scottish Men's national team.
Naturally, that's nothing compared to how long the devotees of this poor forlorn kingdom waited.
Scotland last qualified for the Euros in 1996. Their last major international came at the 1998 World Cup.
Quick arithmetic tells the sordid tale. Twenty three long football-less Summers. One can scarcely conceive of such pain.
When the syndicate first began back in 2002, former German World Championship manager Berti Vogts helmed this side. It seemed only a matter of time before competent leadership would restore this program. After all, the Scots had qualified for five straight World Cups between 1974 and 1990. They were also there for Euro 1992 in addition to '96.
Alas, this country would have to endure a long dry spell. Nine successive Scottish trainers couldn't break the jinx. The first country to ever produce an actual professional footballer lost an entire generation.
The curse of Fergus Suter. He's the one with the mustache down in front. Darwen FC brought him and fellow Glaswegian Jimmy Love down from Partik sometime in the late 1870s. These two players broke the pay barrier.
Prior to them, the amateur nature of football was fiercely defended by the so-called "English gentlemen" who "civilized" the game at their elite colleges. It was a sport for those groomed for Eton and the like. Suter and his lesser known counterpart brought it to the working class and made it legal for footballers to be paid.
Fast forward past the second World War and the Scots furnished perhaps the greatest head-coach the game has ever seen. Long before fellow Scot Sir Alex Ferguson took over at Old Trafford, this man built the true Manchester United.
Another trailblazer. We likely wouldn't even have a pan-European club competition had Sir Matt Busby not taken the first generation of his "Busby Babes" over to Belgrade against the wishes of the ever proper English FA.
The intransigence of the FA arguably led to the horrible tragedy that was the Munich Air Disaster in 1958 as the team rushed back to complete its league fixtures. Bad injured in the crash, Busby somehow found a way to return to football.
Football lovers owe him and the players who soldiered on a great debt of gratitude. All of us are giddy as hell to have the Scots here. So much history. It's been far, far too long. Pat Nevin be praised, the Scots are finally back.
Qualifying could not have been more anxiety-ridden. The team started off this cycle with a 0-3 loss to Kazakhstan. After finishing third in their group behind Belgium and Russia, they had to claim their hosting privileges in this tournament via penalty-shootouts against Israel and Serbia.
That should give you some idea of the team's potential. They make a nice sentimental pick and the bookie will certainly not complain about losing money here. Be nevertheless advised that a dead-last finish in the group is an informed handicap.
We're pulling this together based on the playoffs and some WMQ scouting. Note that manager Steve Clarke, aware that the squad that got him this far needed some augmenting, called up three debutants who had not been capped yet.
Midfielders Billy Gilmour and David Turbull got run-outs in the most recent test. Defender Nathan Patterson should get a look before the friendlies are over with. In most cases, the pre-tournament friendlies feature players who stand little chance of making it into the first XI. That might be different here.
A back-five anchored by captain Andrew Robertson seems likely. I'll also bet that Ryan Christie works up alongside London Dykes in a two striker set. It's all but certain that John McGinn will function as the ten and he needs players in their best form to feed.
Aston Villa's long-range artist can do much more than simply distribute. He tallied thrice in the most recent international break, tallying for his country as many times as he did for his Birmingham-based club.
Vicey's Bundesliga Buddy
Brian O'Neil, VfL Wolfsburg
Have to dig into the past a bit here as we've another squad that doesn't currently feature any Bundesliga players. There's no shortage of young Scotsman populating the lower divisions, but it's actually been rare to see many compete in the top flight.
There really could be no other choice. The former Aberdeen man took a chance coming over into the Bundesliga back in 1998. Another trailblazer of sorts as, some may not recall, footballers weren't freely moving about borders then in the way they do today.
Wolfsburg were still a relatively new Bundesliga club at the time and the midfielder helped them qualify for their first ever UEFA Cup. Germany's Green Company Team had that plastic feel about them until eminently likable characters like O'Neil showed up.
Er....are we listening Leipzig and Hoffenheim? Bring in some more cool Scotsmen!
Our third successive group featuring a third successive debutant affords your friendly bookie his third successive chance to remind everyone how awesome Women's football is.
Those eagerly anticipating the great historic rivalry should know that we actually already got a chance to experience it two years ago at the Women's World Cup. England vs. Scotland was fantastic!
This is why we don't miss the women's internationals, gentlemen. It's just too god-damed-awesome. What the hell else to you have to do? Watch golf?
Though we don't necessarily have the most pleasant Scotland memory to share here, it's impossible to ignore the Argentina-Scotland six-goal thriller.
What the Argentine women were able to do less than two years after their own federation suspended the whole program was still fucking awesome.
Vicey’s Fearless Group Prediction ( 3 to 1 Odds for Bookie)
1) England
2) Croatia
3) Czech Republic
Overall Championship Odds
England (Straight Up)
Croatia (Straight Up)
Czech Republic (8 to 1)
Round of 16 Odds
England (NO BETS)
Croatia (NO BETS)
Czech Republic (Straight Up)
Quarterfinal Odds
England (NO BETS)
Croatia (NO BETS)
Czech Republic (3 to 1)
Semifinal Odds
England (NO BETS)
Croatia (2 to 1)
Czech Republic (5 to 1)
